Lion of the Blogosphere

Covid-19 IFR by age group

Assuming that the overall infected fatality rate (IFR) in NYC is 1% (which in turn is based on the assumption that 25% of NYC has been infected), and that each age group has the same percentage of infected, then I have used the data located here to create the following estimates:

0-17 0.003%
18-44 0.1%
45-64 0.9%
65-74 3.0%
75+ 7.5%

Here’s a prediction of total deaths in the United States, by age group, if we let the virus run unfettered until we have heard immunity (70% infected)

0-19 1722
20-44 76,209
45-64 528,570
65-74 711,690
75+ 1,151,850

So “only old people will die” is false. If we don’t do anything to stop the virus, there will be more than 600,000 dead who are under the age of 65. Plus another million people 65-74 who might have had another good 10 years ahead of them if not for the virus.

Also, only looking at this as a binary dead vs not dead doesn’t take into account how many of those who were hospitalized but survived will suffer permanent disabilities because of the virus, which we don’t know yet.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

May 19, 2020 at 2:13 PM

One Response

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  1. So it’s not just the Boomer Remover, but the Boomer/GenX Remover. (And older generations of course). But still, the younger half of the population is mostly fine. Not sure this is worth spending trillions, and people aren’t even following the lockdown rules anyway.

    ack-acking

    May 19, 2020 at 3:14 PM


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