Lion of the Blogosphere

The virus is a big deal

One of the big deficiencies of pandemic reporting is the failure to report things by age groups. Back in May I did a ballpark estimate of the IFR by age group, and given the lack of anything better, I think my estimates are pretty good.

During the current spike in cases, Republicans have been insisting that the virus is no longer a problem because deaths have been trending down. (Except this is wrong with respect to the most recent week because deaths are now going up in places where cases started increasing a few weeks ago.)

One thing that has been reported is that younger people have been a disproportionate percent of cases during this second wave of cases. Because people between the ages of 18 and 44 have only a 0.1% infected fatality rate (although the case fatality rate would be higher than that), this would be an important factor in explaining the immediate lack of deaths corresponding to the rising number of cases. (The other important factor is it takes weeks before a reported case turns into a reported death. Cases today predict deaths in the future.)

But it doesn’t mean the virus isn’t a big deal because younger people are getting infected.

(1) If large numbers of young people are infected, they will spread it to older people.

(2) it’s wrong to think of the virus in terms of a binary live or die situation. There is evidence that many people who caught the virus and survive will suffer continuing health consequences. I list again some of the known health consequences: permanent loss of smell, blood clotting (leading to dangerous strokes), heart damage, permanently reduced lung capacity, chronic fatigue syndrome, multi-system inflammatory syndrome. What percent of people will have continuing health problems? I don’t know, but better safe than sorry, because optimism about this virus has been proven wrong over and over again.

(3) The number of people who need to be hospitalized exceeds the number of people who die. What happens to people who need to be hospitalized, but because of a huge surge in cases the hospitals are full? The answer is that the case fatality rate increases when this happens. Furthermore, what happens to people who need hospitalization for other reasons when the hospitals are full? Hospitals full to capacity with Covid-19 patients is a huge public health crisis independent of the fatality rate for people who get good care.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

July 15, 2020 at 1:43 PM

72 Responses

Subscribe to comments with RSS.

  1. One of the things about the New York Covid deaths is that the all cause mortality deaths increased by significantly MORE than the reported number of covid deaths.

    The amount more is probably not easily explained by shutdown related deaths, meaning that covid related deaths were probably significantly underestimated.

    MKS

    July 15, 2020 at 2:04 PM

  2. Lion, here are your age-based projections from May:
    0-17 0.003%
    18-44 0.1%
    45-64 0.9%
    65-74 3.0%
    75+ 7.5%

    On Twitter, I saw a link to an analyst (citizen-scientist?) named Marc Bevand who presents an analysis of Florida Covid-19 cases on Github. Link to his site, link to the graphic “CFR of Florida Covid-19 Cases by Age Bracket”.

    Here are his estimated Case Fatality Rates (not IFRs) by decile:
    Age 0-29 – 0.04%
    Age 30-39 – 0.11%
    Age 40-49 – 0.28%
    Age 50-59 – 0.63%
    Age 60-69 – 2.03%
    Age 70-79 – 5.90%
    Age 80-89 – 14.51%
    Age 90+ – 25.48%

    Reading the graph, mortality rates have fallen significantly since May. Presumably, this is due to more testing (thus greater numbers of less-severe cases captured in the denominator) and better survival (e.g. high-flow oxygen instead of ventilators, dexamethasone to treat cytokine shock).

    Kudos to Mr. Bevand, this is the sort of careful analysis that’s needed to make informed projections.

    amac78

    July 15, 2020 at 2:07 PM

    • Thanks, that was informative.

      MoreSigmasThanYou

      July 15, 2020 at 8:50 PM

  3. “The number of people who need to be hospitalized exceeds the number of people who die. What happens to people who need to be hospitalized, but because of a huge surge in cases the hospitals are full?”

    Indeed. And what happens when a hospital is full, and a certain number of the patients are persons in the country illegally? Do you just say “too bad, he was here first” to the US citizen who requires hospitalization but can’t be admitted?

    Sgt. Joe Friday

    July 15, 2020 at 2:13 PM

  4. O/t – Your NYC-Tristate commenters probably heard about the grisly murder of the Arabic/Muslim millennial Fahim Saleh, who was a tech entrepreneur camping out at his multimillion dollar pad on the Lower East Side, a section of Manhattan that never seems to reach full potential. Riddled with NAMs, White Hipsters and their striving non-white friends, along with the remnant geezers from the old NYC, the neighborhood epitomizes the degenerate liberal multicult. His killing reminds me of the murder of his fellow Saudia Arabian, Jamal Khashoggi, who died at the hands of professional mercenary. Saleh was probably stabbed to death and then cut into pieces with an electric chainsaw.

    Word of wisdom for any rich obnoxious prick is to live in a luxury building with a doorman who screens all inbound individuals.

    https://nypost.com/2020/07/14/decapitated-dismembered-body-found-in-nyc-apartment/

    Ok, what, who's this again?

    July 15, 2020 at 2:49 PM

    • The dude had business connections in Nigeria and Colombia, so say media reports. Nigerian swindlers don’t seem to be violent – why kill people when it is so much more lucrative and easier to fleece them through scams? Chopping people up? That’s an old Colombian trick. Colombians could have farmed the job out to Mexicans who also are adept at dismembering bodies.

      Daniel H

      July 15, 2020 at 8:29 PM

    • More info for Lion and his followers to dissect in regards to Fahim Saleh.

      https://www.poughkeepsiejournal.com/story/news/local/2020/07/15/fahim-saleh-john-jay-grad-found-dismembered-manhattan-condo/5442493002/

      A graduate of a very prolish CUNY college known as the John Jay School of Criminal Justice.

      Lived in Hopewell Junction with his parents, which is in the Hudson Valley. A Middle Easterner in the Hudson Valley is as rare as a South Asian or Eastern Asiatic in the Hudson Valley.

      Looks like a Mestizo Hispanic, probably stood out as an oddball living in a luxury building in the Lower East Side, when people of his phenotype live in subsidized housing or they are running 24/7 convenience stores.

      Becomes a CEO of a bikeshare company in Nigeria…

      A victim of jealous SWPLs, jealous NAMs, or maybe he was just a prick?

      Ok, what, who's this again?

      July 15, 2020 at 9:12 PM

  5. We should have been like Europe. Europe didn’t do it perfectly but it’s largely under control as of this time. Their debates about reopening schools are based around number of active cases rather than because “young people are fine” or “death rates still going down” or stuff like that.

    We can’t manage this with results like a bunch of Asian/Oceanic countries. But we should have been able to manage like this Europe. Instead we have more cases than ever and the “solution” for a good part of the country is basically arguing “well, maybe this virus isn’t as bad as first thought”. You know what’s much better? Not having to “test” that idea at all because it’s all bought under a some level of control.

    Instead, we have this. With many long time readers of the Lion are viewing him and anyone who shares the same views on this pandemic as somehow the ones with the missing marbles

    Dreamer

    July 15, 2020 at 3:38 PM

    • Yes, Western Nations aren’t Eastern Asiatic, but Meriprolestan is its own thing. The bright side, Meriproles are getting stimulus checks and a $600 weekly bonus for being idle during this pandemic, more than they ever got if they were working.

      Is this a precursor to UPS (Universal Prole Subsidy) that Lion favors and touted by the Eastern Asiatic presidential hopeful, Andrew Yang?

      Ok, what, who's this again?

      July 15, 2020 at 5:01 PM

    • But something often overlooked is how big the US is compared to Euro countries. The US is essentially having two different covid surges in two different latitude regions.

      NYC and the rest of the Northern cities during the Winter when it was too cold to be outside there, and Miami, Houston and Phoenix now when it’s too hot to be outside there.

      And this matches up to covid peaks worldwide. The northern cities in the winter, and now the more tropical ones. …………..Now compare to just Europe where Paris and Milan (both hard hit cities in the initial surge) are essentially at the same latitude ……i.e., one peak.

      trey

      July 15, 2020 at 8:35 PM

    • Europe didn’t do it perfectly but it’s largely under control as of this time

      Look at the size of Italy and the size of the USA. In a continental-sized country, you have thousands of pandemics at the same time in different stages and different places. In the south, the virus has arrived now when in NYC, it is done. It was unbelievably stupid to close down Texas or Arizona in March just because NYC was a hotspot.

      Bruno of Brazil

      July 16, 2020 at 7:07 AM

      • Not closing down Texas or Arizona in March is the reason why they are now hotbeds for the virus.

        Ok, what, who's this again?

        July 17, 2020 at 12:35 PM

      • Illegal immigration is why they are now hotbeds for the virus. Illegal immigration made a lot of close-contact jobs inexpensive enough to keep doing by hand. Otherwise, they would have automated those jobs and eliminated that vector a long time ago.

        https://www.wired.com/story/why-meatpacking-plants-have-become-covid-19-hot-spots/

        destructure

        July 18, 2020 at 4:08 AM

  6. There is some data publicly available for the totals broken down by age groups, but not for daily new infections.
    I was able to find these numbers for Georgia.
    I worked back by keeping track of totals on a daily basis and subtracting.

    That way, I got frequencies for new infections.
    The result is that the current wave of infections is somewhat younger but not a lot younger.

    The groups where the biggest change occurred are
    age 10-17 was 3.9% of new infections, now is 5.9%
    age 18-29 was 23.4% of new infections, now is 28.4%
    with a corresponding decrease among the old people
    age 70-79 now 4.3% of new infections, was 6.2%
    age 80+ now 2.4% of new infections, was 5.2%
    The persons aged 80+ used to die at the rate of 20%, now it’s 10%.

    WRB

    July 15, 2020 at 3:47 PM

  7. can someone explain to me why FAANG + MSFT aren’t in a bubble? they’re holding up the s&p.

    John (@John26772820)

    July 15, 2020 at 4:34 PM

    • OK, I know why. But I’ll tell you only if you tell me why WOOLF and BLMT are in arbitrage with t&r. And don’t tell me it’s because the newport808 figures just came in! Bobselby of xxr disproved that, tootsuite back in 21 when Calrin self-destructed!

      Babble On

      July 16, 2020 at 12:27 PM

  8. After almost 19 years the whole Islam Will Conquer the World schtick is wearing kind of thin, so we have to have something else to be paranoid about.

    Peter

    ironrailsironweights

    July 15, 2020 at 7:01 PM

    • It took them hundreds of years to conquer what is now Pakistan. What’s wrong. Your attention span not long enough?

      MoreSigmasThanYou

      July 16, 2020 at 10:18 AM

  9. One thing I’ve noticed is that the people most eager to Shut It All Down tend to be the ones least personally affected by that policy. Typically they’re introverted single people or empty-nesters whose financial well-being isn’t really impacted if they’re forced to stay at home.

    ChristianR

    July 15, 2020 at 8:28 PM

    • I’m an extremely strong advocate of keeping everything open, yet aside from being unable to go to the gym I’ve been almost completely unaffected. As an essential employee I’ve been working all along, and have picked up occasional overtime, and even when not working I’ve been out of the house at least once every day.

      Peter

      ironrailsironweights

      July 15, 2020 at 11:09 PM

      • They still have not reopened your gym? That sucks, man.

        My gym reopened 3 weeks ago, with limits on how many people can be in there. You’re supposed to sign up online.

        I have been working the whole time too, but the train schedule got messed up by all this, so it is way harder for me to get overtime now.

        Lowe

        July 18, 2020 at 9:09 PM

    • Our company sent email saying we would be working from home till “at least” end of year. Therefore I’m in “close everything if you want, open everything if you want” camp. Who cares? I’m leaving home only for grocery shopping once a week and haven’t dined out even once since March. Everybody is saving so much on food, gas, auto insurance (don’t forget to call ur insurance with updated yearly mileage). Because I’m saving 90 minute commute that’s more hours one can work and bill.

      I wear mask myself but won’t be a mask nazi. In other words if you don’t want to wear mask, good for you.

      mpt

      July 17, 2020 at 3:06 AM

    • People most likely to be numerate.

      JayMan

      July 17, 2020 at 9:28 PM

    • Financially, I’m ahead because of the rebound. But the shutdown has cost my company money. I’m still paying employees something to help them get by. So I still have costs without as much revenue. To be blunt, I’m operating in the red. I’ve been doing this for a while and will keep doing it for the foreseeable future. But, at some point, it just won’t make sense to keep paying people for nothing. Especially since some of them have probably found other jobs and won’t come back.

      On a personal note, there are over a dozen people under our roof so it’s hardly solitary confinement. There’s enough space that it doesn’t feel crowded. We have a shop, gym, pool, etc. Everyone has a personal project or interest they’re involved with. Not being able to see friends is starting to get to my wife. Otherwise, things are going well at the destructure compound.

      Personally, I’m fine with my day to day life. But I’m aggravated that this has gone on for months without any sign those in charge have gotten their act together. Even worse, it doesn’t look like anyone is even trying to get their act together. I understand that people don’t like being cooped up and are worried about paying the bills. I also understand that it takes time to develop vaccines and treatments. But it still doesn’t look like everyone is taking this seriously or that the authorities have a plan to deal with this long term. And that’s aggravating me. I’m not emotional about it or anything. But I am aggravated.

      destructure

      July 18, 2020 at 7:34 AM

    • @ ChristianR

      Yes social and class struggle is always present. That doesn’t make them wrong but personal motivations do matter in politics. Typically the more comfortable and invested in society a person is the less prone to radical ideas.

      eradican

      July 19, 2020 at 9:20 AM

  10. Since you’re basing your estimates off Statista, why not just use the actual Swedish numbers and scale for the non-mitigation case? They’re showing 607 deaths as of today for people 69 and under. Scaling for population, that’s a little under 20,000 for a US sized country. Where do you think they’re at on the herd immunity curve? They’ve got 76,500 cases, and the general rule of thumb most sources seem to be going by is that Infected/Confirmed is about 10:1. So call them at roughly 7.5%. There’s considerable contention whether the herd immunity level is 70%. Kids don’t seem to transmit it, and that’s about 20% of the population right there, so the number is probably more like 70% of 80% = 56%. The highest observed infected percentages were in Bergamo, and they hit around 60%, so we’ll go with that. So the no mitigation control group predicts about 20,000 x (60/7.5) = 160,000 dead people under the age of 70. Might be some minor discrepancies due to somewhat different age demographics between us and them. Your estimates from May predict 600,000. That’s better than Neil Ferguson’s group did, but if you were manufacturing aircraft altimeters you’d want to run the numbers again.
    BTW, the CFR estimates for Florida from Marc Bevand (above) are very comparable to Sweden for the 30-49 age groups, but are about 50% lower for the 50-69 age groups. This is consistent with commenter WRB’s observation that the 80+ group is dying at about half the rate it was a few months ago, and may indicate that evolving methods of treatment are having some impact in reducing the death rate (as opposed to say throwing the sickest patients into nursing homes).

    Dmon

    July 15, 2020 at 8:47 PM

  11. Look, the only mystery here is why Cuomo moved CoVid patients into nursing homes and why hydroxylchloroquine was not administered as a prophylactic early. The VA has already administered 45,000 doses without incident.

    map

    July 16, 2020 at 2:18 AM

    • It should be obvious that CoVid is a bioweapon and it is being released in various forms of attenuation. My suspicion is that a particularly deadly strain will be released in the school season.

      map

      July 16, 2020 at 2:19 AM

      • I thought it was an MSM hoax. You mean it’s now a bioweapon?

      • A god sent for those who elected Trump to stall non-white immigration. WAKE (White America Kills Encroachment)

        Ok, what, who's this again?

        July 16, 2020 at 12:26 PM

      • You understand that the coronavirus can be both a bioweapon and a hoax, right?

        What is the goal? Complete social control of Americans, basically a lock down of the entire country indefinitely. This takes several steps:

        1) Use a particularly deadly form of the coronavirus to create a controlled death-count. You don’t want to unleash something like this on the general public. You want a heavily controlled, institutional setting. The answer: Democrat Nursing homes. This is where people throw away their parents. Old people in nursing homes are hugely dependent on the staff, they do not have all of their faculties, and they are generally isolated from family. It is easy to initiate a killing here, dispose of the body through an incinerator and generally control the local environment, the media and law enforcement. The children may complain, but they are easy to stymie.

        2) Use an attenuated form of the virus on the rest of the population. This is designed to make people sick, but it makes them recoverable. You’ve already instilled the fear of death with the nursing home program, so you do not need to do anything drastic from here.

        3) Have the media exaggerate covid infections, ICU hospitalizations and death. Have empty ambulances driving up and down the city to simulate the problem. Have CDC, NIH and other agencies lie about the CoVid numbers. Keep the hospitals empty and make sure medical staff are playing along with the hoax, on pain of losing their jobs.

        See: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/nhs-consultant-says-staff-are-being-silenced-over-covid-19

        We are at the media spin level of the hoax. The idea is to frighten people into staying home.

        The key issue is the schools re-opening. This is a real wildcard circumstance. If the schools are locked down, then everything is locked down. Parents can’t go to work because they will have to be home with their kids. They also can’t be supervising their kids’ education because they have to work. This is not a tenable situation, so there will be a school re-opening.

        The question here is, will the powers-that-be release the deadly form of the virus in a school? Also, which school? Would they really do that in New York City? That would really crap their own backyard. They may attempt the attack on a smaller, red state school, but it won’t have the same impact. I am guessing a New York City public school will get attacked. Democrats hate their voters anyway.

        This is a very risky strategy, attacking a school instead of a nursing home. Parents are not going to allow their children to be killed and disposed of. You would have a revolt and a truly uncontrolled circumstance. You will also have the exposure that this coronavirus was a controlled operation designed to precisely achieve this result. It would be like “Covid patients in nursing homes” on steroids.

        So, you see, this can be both a hoax and something deadly all at once.

        map

        July 16, 2020 at 10:32 PM

      • Mildly alternative explanation.

        There really is not Covid and the deaths in nursing homes were outright murders to fake an outbreak

        map

        July 17, 2020 at 1:00 AM

      • I ordered some tin foil hats for you off from Amazon.

        mpt

        July 17, 2020 at 10:39 AM

      • Covid-19 finds the most agreeableness in NAM and prole communities who are less inclined to wear masks and practice social distancing, and also urban strivers who haven’t really understood civic mindedness practiced by our liberal elites. It’s a punishing tool rather than a bio-weapon to teach their inferiors a lesson.

        Ok, what, who's this again?

        July 17, 2020 at 12:16 PM

      • mpt,

        Do you know anybody who has died of the corona virus?

        Have you actually been to a hospital, hung around to notice the traffic, or seen what was in the parking lots?

        map

        July 17, 2020 at 1:41 PM

      • mpt,

        We know hospitals are locked down so they are not treating anything other than CoVid patients.

        This means there are people who are dying of non-Covid related matters.

        We know hospitals get paid more per covid patients.

        How difficult would it be to label those non-Covid deaths as covid deaths as well as re-label any incoming patients as covid related when they are not?

        Do you see how easy this theater is to orchestrate?

        map

        July 17, 2020 at 1:44 PM

      • Mildly alternative explanation #2.

        Dwellers of nursing homes have life expectency measured in months. No need to murder, they just die and you just say, “hey, Covid test was pos, give us the federal assistance money now”

        SlushFundPuppie

        July 17, 2020 at 3:22 PM

  12. There is another virus on the horizon that is a big deal. It comes from Mosquitoes in areas of NYC that we normally think as undesirable. Think NAMs and guidos. You got it!

    https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/about/press/pr2020/first-mosquitoes-with-west-nile-2020.page

    “First Mosquitoes With West Nile Virus Detected in New York City

    Infected mosquitoes were found in the Bronx and on Staten Island; no human cases have been reported”

    Ok, what, who's this again?

    July 16, 2020 at 8:36 AM

    • JS, I think you’re projecting. To most Americans, Staten Island wouldn’t be an undesirable place. Most people don’t look at guidos the way you do.

      Maryk (the g-loaded guidette)

      July 17, 2020 at 12:34 AM

      • Lion dislikes his borough of childhood. But yes, except for the elite and the strivers, most Americans wouldn’t find Guido Island as undesirable. They are prolier places in the South and the Midwest. Guidos are just a different kind of prole.

        Ok, what, who's this again?

        July 17, 2020 at 8:42 AM

      • I prefer the proles of flyover country.

      • Yes, proles from flyover are mostly of Northern European ancestry, Germany, especially. While Staten Island is just what we know of Staten Island, the usual low brow, hey Pauly, wtf, there is a mooli here. Guys who never read a book from page 1 to the end.

        Ok, what, who's this again?

        July 17, 2020 at 10:38 AM

      • O/t – Btw, former Staten Island Congressman, Michael Grimm worked as a deckhand for the Staten Island Ferry. Talking being prole, while one could work the same job for a fleet of yachts in a marina somewhere in Long Island or the Hudson Valley without such a stigma.

        Ok, what, who's this again?

        July 17, 2020 at 1:23 PM

    • I knew a woman who got West Nile several years ago. She recovered but it severely affected her mental capacity. #potato

      destructure

      July 17, 2020 at 2:50 AM

  13. If I weren’t reading this blog and hearing the news,
    I wouldn’t know that there is a corona epidemic. Yesterday my 7 year old granddaughter had a birthday party with the whole class attending. No social distancing or masks. This is a fact. It looks like corona has run its course in the orthodox communities in Brooklyn. This isn’t the case in Israel. Time will tell.

    Yakov

    July 16, 2020 at 10:53 AM

    • Epidemiologists need to study the NYC Haredi community to find out what’s going on.

      • Not much other than the fact that these small communities have always been insular and isolated, and have minimal contact with other Jewish communities and gentiles.

        Enforcement of Covid-19 guidelines made them more so and thus reduced their infections dramatically. Minimal association with outsiders who are also being enforced with these rules keeps them unaffected. It’s not rocket science.

        Ok, what, who's this again?

        July 16, 2020 at 12:46 PM

      • I really wonder if NYC has attained herd immunity. (or having like 30% of people immune).

        A potential hitch may be that some people who are currently “immune” because they received a low dose of the virus and became asymptomatic may lose their immunity more quickly than one with a symptomatic infection.

        Latias

        July 16, 2020 at 1:33 PM

      • Not NYC as a whole, but possibly 70% or more of Haredi got infected. Because Haredi are mostly under the age of 40 (because they have massive numbers of children), we may not have noticed, it got lost in the bigger picture of 20,000 to 30,000 dead.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        July 16, 2020 at 1:38 PM

    • Have we already forgotten the anger that NYC had with the Orthodox Community that kept insisting on having big funeral during the worse days on the NYC pandemic. There were many non-orthodox jews that remarked about how stupid the community was and how bad it made all Jews look.

      superdestroyer

      July 16, 2020 at 1:47 PM

      • Yeah, but this praticular community is totally isolated: it doesn’t have TV, smart phones or read newspapers. In many ways they are more similar to an Amazon tribe then to the people of NYC.

        Also, I felt that a major contributing factor was that before the death toll started rising it was considered somehow a lack of faith in G-d to take precautions seriously. Now, that was stupid.

        Yakov

        July 16, 2020 at 3:27 PM

      • Rabbi Lives Matter!

        SlushFundPuppie

        July 17, 2020 at 3:27 PM

  14. A recommended video by a practicing pediatrician on children, school, and Covid-19. Even though it is long there is more usable information that about any news article

    superdestroyer

    July 16, 2020 at 11:08 AM

    • I don’t find a woman who watches “Criminal Minds” to be credible.

      map

      July 16, 2020 at 10:37 PM

      • Germany and Sweden already this study and they showed there is little risk for school children

        map

        July 16, 2020 at 10:37 PM

      • The U.S. is most incompetent when it comes to managing the virus, so we need to look to the worst-performing countries for how thing would work out here, and that would be Israel where opening schools led to big outbreaks.

      • Then the only real answer is to have the Dr. Zelenko treatment available at all schools.

        map

        July 17, 2020 at 1:05 AM

      • “The U.S. is most incompetent when it comes to managing the virus”

        I’m disgusted with what I’m hearing coming out of America. The virus is making a comeback here, too. It’s not as bad as America. But some people here are being ignorant about it, too. And that’s very annoying.

        destructure

        July 17, 2020 at 3:09 AM

      • when people talk about school aged children, they keep thinking about k-3 (as discussed in the video). However, there have been several outbreaks among high school aged children. Sweden closed its equivalent of high schools and universities. Thus, any claimed that Sweden has shown that schools can reopen is false.

        superdestroyer

        July 17, 2020 at 10:08 AM

      • In Israel, middle schools had outbreaks.

        Perhaps for grades 1 to 3, in-person school is possible with small classes and no inter-class contacts.

      • If these infection rates were so accurate, then why have we not scene a surge in medical professionals getting the coronavirus? We know masks don’t work. Is every nurse and doctor and orderly and janitor walking around a hospital with a full hazmat suit?

        map

        July 17, 2020 at 1:47 PM

      • MAP,

        Masks do work. Harvard Medical system saw a significant drop in employee infections once they went to mandatory masks. Also, several hospitals took professionals who lost work due to Covid-19 like physical or occupational therapist and turned into Covid-19 monitors to make sure masks were worn correctly, gowns were doffed correctly, and everyone washed their hands.

        Also, hospital workers cannot refuse to wear masks and if they are lackadaisical about safety, they get fired.

        superdestroyer

        July 17, 2020 at 2:50 PM

      • superdestroyer,

        An N95 mask filters at around .5 microns. A P100 is at .3 microns. The coronavirus is .1 microns. How is the mask filtering out this covid virus? Sure, there are other particles in the air of larger size that could block the virus by plugging a space, but this is like the Three Stooges getting stuck in a doorway. I wouldn’t rely on this model for any protection.

        Furthermore, this coronavirus escaped from a lab. Or, more charitably, a Chinese wet market adjacent to a BSL-4 lab. Of course, there are thousands of wet markets all over Asia and the one that originated a coronavirus just happens to be next to a lab.

        If BLS-4 lab security protocols are needed to protect researchers from the virus, then how does a simple mask protect hospital workers?

        map

        July 18, 2020 at 5:08 AM

      • Map,

        The virus is not airbonre by itself. It is being carried by a microscopic particle of bodily fluid. The N95 mask is meant to keep the airborne particle of others bodily fluids out of your nasopharyngeal regions and your lungs. If a particle is sub 0.1 microns AMAD when it has small probably of settling while in your air parthway (look up the aerosol physics to understand).

        What the procedures masks that many people are wearing (the disposal masks) is meant to keep your bodily fluids out of others instead of keeping other’s bodyily fluids out of you. Many workplaces have found that having everyone wear a cloth or disposal procedure mask greatly cuts down on transmission of covid-19 when people cannot social distance.

        superdestroyer

        July 19, 2020 at 12:15 PM

  15. “(1) If large numbers of young people are infected, they will spread it to older people.”

    Why do you want to murder grandma, you selfish bastard?

    “What happens to people who need to be hospitalized, but because of a huge surge in cases the hospitals are full?”

    I know, I have an idea. How about we quarantine for, say, about like two weeks, so that the spread slows and don’t come in all at once. I call it “de-elevating the arch”

    SlushFundPuppie

    July 17, 2020 at 3:06 PM

  16. Hey one thing this plague is teaching us is who to ignore, like many in this comment section.

    JayMan

    July 17, 2020 at 9:31 PM

    • Yeah, it’s teaching me to ignore people who predicted millions of deaths, and since then haven’t talked about the disastrously high unemployment rate, and the crime numbers now resulting.

      Let’s talk about innumeracy some more, Jayman. Maybe Alex Turok can come and give his input too.

      Lowe

      July 18, 2020 at 9:18 PM

      • Millions of American deaths are still on the table my friend. The plague isn’t over yet, and it’s not looking too good in the South.

        That prediction however was made with qualifier if no action was taken. Action was taken. But we need to take a lot more because we’re not headed in a good direction. And we’re headed there alone among the developed world.

        JayMan

        July 19, 2020 at 7:07 PM

  17. OT: Sounds interesting but not sure what to make of it. Anyone have insight?

    https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/16/21325678/venture-capitalists-vc-media-silicon-valley-clubhouse-tech-journalists?utm_source=pocket-newtab

    https://slatestarcodex.com/

    PS: The thing with SSC is mentioned in the Verge article.

    destructure

    July 20, 2020 at 6:54 AM


Comments are closed.

%d bloggers like this: