Lion of the Blogosphere

The coming death spiral of New York City

The “death spiral” is an ill-defined term, but it’s generally applied to situations where, when things get worse, this causes things to get even more worse than before.

The NY Times recently published an article about a coming public transit death spiral. In other words, loss of revenue from lower ridership means that, in order to balance their budget (absent a massive infusion of outside monetary support), they need to cut service, increase fares, reduce capital improvement, all things which make the transit system even worse thus causing even lower ridership with corresponding lower revenue.

New York City as a whole is in the same unavoidable death spiral. Rich people are fleeing to the Hamptons, and businesses are abandoning their expensive Manhattan office buildings and telling everyone to work from home. This resulting loss of tax revenue means that NYC will have to slash spending and/or raise taxes (if it’s even possible to raise taxes any higher given that NYC already has the highest taxes of anywhere in the United States), making the city even less desirable than it was before, which would encourage even more people and businesses to move out.

In addition to normal downward-spiral economics, we have two other factor working against New York City:

(1) Memory of the pandemic. Those who remember it won’t want to go back to living in apartment buildings where you have to ride the elevator with people who could be contagious with something. Now yes, it’s a proven fact that many people, probably most people, especially young people, will just forget about the pandemic as soon as they can, even when the pandemic isn’t over yet. But the people who will permanently change their living preferences because of it are likely to be older and wealthier, the people who pay a disproportionate share of NYC taxes.

(2) Rising crime because of liberal policing. Now unlike the factors above which I am certain about, this is more speculative. When De Blasio took over years ago I predicted rising crime, which never happened. At least it never happened until this summer. There has been a big increase in shootings since the beginning of June. So although we should cautious about saying “this time it’s different,” the post-BLM-protests political environment truly feels different to me, and I think we could be entering an era of soft-on-crime policing that will lead to an explosion of crime that will make New York City that much less desirable.

What about the people who say something like “New York City is the most desirable place to live because all of the culture is here.” Well culture can move pretty easily. According to the Hamptons article above, expensive restaurants, stores, and art galleries that used to be in Manhattan are moving to the Hamptons. It’s pretty clear to me that the Hamptons will replace New York City as the most desirable place to live because of all the culture. Certain big institutions like the Metropolitan Museum of Art won’t be able to move to the Hamptons, but that’s mostly a tourist attraction and not something that the average rich New Yorker goes to on a regular basis.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

July 23, 2020 at 11:03 AM

Posted in New York City

70 Responses

Subscribe to comments with RSS.

  1. NYC is about jobs. The current term to use is “Communities of Economic Opportunity.” As long as NYC has a large number of high paying, long hour jobs, then people will stay. As long as NYC is the entry point for jobs like fashion, publishing, finance, then people will stay.

    However, if large corporations start moving headquarters out of NYC, that is when it will fail. The other one is maybe Manhattan survive as a job center but the outer boroughs start to depopulate. However, I think the Democrats can increase immigration to keep the outer boroughs going.

    superdestroyer

    July 23, 2020 at 11:53 AM

    • “However, I think the Democrats can increase immigration to keep the outer boroughs going.”

      I’ll be curious to see reviews for Matt Yglesias’ upcoming book, “One Billion Americans” (Sailer is already committed to reviewing it), but I think I already buy into it as a forecast, assuming America doesn’t break down completely beforehand. It’s probably achieved in the 22nd century though, not the 21st.

      Under that scenario, I just don’t think you can de-populate NYC. With millions coming to the US each year, enough would go to NYC to keep it full, and inertia alone would keep enough people there.

      Wency

      July 23, 2020 at 4:53 PM

      • Little Boy did a pretty good job on Hiroshima.

        Curle

        July 24, 2020 at 9:12 PM

      • Wrong title. It should be “1 Billion Subsistence Farmers”

        Cuba is the future

        July 25, 2020 at 9:52 AM

      • immigrants need jobs and welfare

        When the businesses and taxpayers are leaving so are the jobs and public money

        Alice

        July 26, 2020 at 12:32 PM

  2. Post like these makes your other followers reiterate what you would say about me. Like every damn comment is the same repetitive drivel.

    Anyway, I was visiting a few Hudson Valley river towns over this past weekend and got a chance to observe the status markers of some of the passengers on the 6 train that connects me to the Metro North in Grand Central.

    On the same car, there were a few decent looking prolettes carrying ice boxes, wearing tank tops and shuffling on their flip flops. They must be heading up to Orchard Beach in the Bronx at the time.

    Less prolish girls would trek further up to the City of Beacon in Dutchess County to kayak along Newburgh Bay, while the sophisticated ones are sipping wine from a snifter in a vineyard located in Upstate New York.

    Ok, what, who's this again?

    July 23, 2020 at 11:59 AM

    • I guess slumming it is no longer a thing among the younger members of our ruling class?

      Almost makes you yearn for the days when our social betters slummed it in communes and joined terrorist organizations that were sponsored by the Soviets rather than Nike.

      Curle

      July 24, 2020 at 9:18 PM

  3. Does this mean a brownstone on the Upper East Side will be affordable to an average shlub like myself?

    Cow Of 2020

    July 23, 2020 at 12:08 PM

    • You would need to look at how much they cost in the 1970s.

      But possibly, as happened in Detroit, buildings will simply be abandoned.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      July 23, 2020 at 1:54 PM

      • I see your point. I agree with it about half way. However, there have always been suburbs with big houses. It’s not a new concept. Some people like to live in an urban environment. Manhattan will always have an appeal to people with money. This plague cut through a lot of red tape as far as working from home, but it was all slowly happening anyway. Also if the jobs can be done in the Hamptons, why not in Bangalore?

        Cow Of 2020

        July 23, 2020 at 2:06 PM

      • “Also if the jobs can be done in the Hamptons, why not in Bangalore?”

        Or why not in Yukon, Canada with a population smaller than the Hamptons? People seem to work better in a less populous area. Furthermore, with a cool and mild climate in the warmer months, it’s easier to concentrate with this kind of environment than if you’re in a beach community during the summer months or in a very warm and hot area like Bungled Jungle Lure.

        Ok, what, who's this again?

        July 24, 2020 at 11:09 AM

    • There are probably no brownstones for sale on the UES or UWS as the wealthy are keeping it “just in case”.

      Another good question yet to be answered, let alone agreed upon, how would Staten Island fare in this pandemic, given it’s suburban status? Should I buy, stay or go?

      Ok, what, who's this again?

      July 23, 2020 at 2:05 PM

    • I follow “newyorkyimby” on IG. He’s probably an architect or developer. The feed is about new construction and development in the NYC metro area. All rich people focused. State of the art design, materials, Engineering, architecture, and technology.

      It’s hard to believe developers see an impending death spiral after seeing some of these developments. Most are already >80% sold. Also, NYC commercial and residential reits haven’t been hit that hard. Though, current trends will surely affect NYC’s way of life.

      Leave NYC while u can

      July 25, 2020 at 10:10 AM

      • People are totally lacking in imagination for how the world could be different after the pandemic.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        July 25, 2020 at 1:26 PM

      • My architect friends are telling me that there is 50% decrease in new big projects, like office building. Not much change in infrastructure, especially if government funded. Private houses are more or less the same but if immigration will stay close for longer it will also decline. In general, I don’t think big cities will loose their appeal, on the contrary, they are going to be slightly more affordable to the people who made them fun in the first place, young creative individuals who couldn’t afford it anymore.

        Hashed

        July 25, 2020 at 5:40 PM

      • People are totally lacking in imagination for how the world could be different after the pandemic.

        Or they are overestimating how much change there will be after a vaccine makes this moot.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        July 26, 2020 at 2:17 PM

  4. “So although we should cautious about saying ‘this time it’s different,’ the post-BLM-protests political environment truly feels different to me, and I think we could be entering an era of soft-on-crime policing that will lead to an explosion of crime that will make New York City that much less desirable.”

    Not to mention a much less visited tourist destination. And there will be lots of businesses, large and small, that won’t ever get started.

    A lot of big city mayors seem to be operating on the assumption that (a) the unrest and violence will only hurt Trump, not them, (b) their residents have no choice but to live with the rioting, looting, and gang shootings, (c) it’s a foregone conclusion that Biden will win in November, which means (d) a fire hose of federal money will be directed at their cities starting January 21, 2021 so (e) the tourists and businesses will come back like nothing ever happened.

    Sgt. Joe Friday

    July 23, 2020 at 1:03 PM

    • This is exactly what Democratic mayors and governors are counting on. The believe, and/or have been directed by the DNC, to destroy their own cities in an effort to pin the chaos on Trump, and when Biden wins they will get multi-billion dollar payouts from the Fed.
      Of course, by that point, the destruction and loss of trust and/or interest will be well advanced.
      It’s astounding to believe the DNC is that stupid, but there is no other logical explanation for the path Democratic mayors and governors are taking.

      As far as Covid, as the fatality rate continues to plummet, and the state of New York sees almost no fatalities for several weeks now, despite reopenings and mass protests, it is clear to all rational people, including 2 ER doctors I know, that this viral event is winding down, despite any lockdown or lack thereof.
      Of course, Lion is not now, nor has he ever been, rational about any of it, and continues to believe that because his elderly parents are in a high risk category, that means the whole country should stay shut down permanently.

      His relentless pants shitting in regards to corona is borderline pathological at this point.

      DaveNYC

      July 23, 2020 at 3:02 PM

  5. We are about to witness the greatest white flight in American history. Worse than the 1960’s. Not just in New York City, but all the major metros. When the creators leave the destroyers will roam fee. Many police officers will leave for greener pastures knowing their days are numbered, and those who remain will realize that there isn’t much worth protecting. These cities will be demilitarized zones within the next decade. This will set black communities back 50 years. When Joe Biden becomes President, he will solve this crisis by expanding Obama’s HUD program and force millions of low income blacks into middle class suburbs. This will set race relations back 100 years. The wealthy will live in rural, cultural enclaves far from the maddening crowd where they can continue to virtue signal while the white working class is terrorized out of existence. The lesson here is to get out of cities, and if you can get out of the suburbs too. You want to be at least thirty minutes away from any metro area and have access to water and farm raised food sources.

    If i were a younger man i would be exploring expat opportunities. If you are going to live in a third world country, which we will soon be, you mine as well pick one where a white man still has cultural status, access to beautiful submissive women and increased purchasing power. You can live like a king in places like Thailand, Panama or Portugal. America as we know it is finished.

    B.T.D.T.

    July 23, 2020 at 1:03 PM

    • “The lesson here is to get out of cities, and if you can get out of the suburbs too. You want to be at least thirty minutes away from any metro area and have access to water and farm raised food sources.”

      How does northeastern Pennsylvania sound?

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      July 23, 2020 at 1:56 PM

      • Northeastern Pennsylvania is good with the exception of the Allentown and Scranton area. You want to be in a solidly Republican county such as Susquehanna, Wayne or Pike counties. There are many good options in PA, as most rural counties outside of Philly and Pittsburgh are extremely conservative with Sheriffs that back the Constitution. You do not want to be in a liberal county when the SHTF. Just ask the McCloskeys in St. Louis. It will be very important in the future to live in a local municipality where you can trust that the commissioners and law enforcement will back you up if your life or property is under attack.

        B.T.D.T.

        July 23, 2020 at 2:28 PM

      • It looks like there are no new cases in the non-Jewish neighborhoods in Brooklyn either. No ambulances on the streets or at the hospital. No one knows anyone who got sick recently. Why won’t things go back to normal?

        Let’s if Lion is gonna close the comments now
        .

        Yakov

        July 23, 2020 at 2:46 PM

    • “Not just in New York City, but all the major metros. When the creators leave the destroyers will roam fee. Many police officers will leave for greener pastures knowing their days are numbered, and those who remain will realize that there isn’t much worth protecting”

      The City of Newburgh in the Hudson Valley has a pocket of gem by the riverside consisting of hip boutiques, restaurants, and fancy housing and accommodations. Now, the center of town is NAM central where roaming free and do as you please is the game in town. Police needs to protect this gem, with so much narrative about de-funding the police, law enforcement will simply allow the city to descend into a complete congo. Quite frankly, many police in some of these decrepit Hudson Valley towns are simply unhappy with their measly salaries due to a low tax base, that they will seek juicier meat in the bigger cities.

      Ok, what, who's this again?

      July 23, 2020 at 2:14 PM

    • “The lesson here is to get out of cities, and if you can get out of the suburbs too. You want to be at least thirty minutes away from any metro area and have access to water and farm raised food sources.”

      That isn’t as great as people imagine. Taking care of land is tedious. Rural people spend much of their days cutting grass and clearing everything that gets overgrown and it just grows back again. Is a city slicker supposed to get used to that? Plus rural people have high suicide rates because they are very isolated.

      Suburbs are fine. I think that’s just about the right of land maintenance for most people and you get the social contact that everyone needs.

      Also, most suburban streets are designed to be a little hard to get to from the main road, to create a neighborhood feel. This makes it much safer.

      If you were to live out in a rural place where you are isolated on the land, you should have a big family or extended family out there with you. Then it could be great. That’s how it was throughout America’s history and it worked well. If you would be alone out there then it would be terrible. Solitary confinement is the most severe punishment we have outside of the death penalty. People need human contact.

      Dan H.

      July 23, 2020 at 2:28 PM

      • Dogs?

        Tarjei V

        July 24, 2020 at 8:47 AM

      • No, the worse confinement is when you live around individuals who look nothing like you and practice human behavior like it’s Tatooine in Star Wars.

        Ok, what, who's this again?

        July 24, 2020 at 2:20 PM

      • “The more I learn about people, the more I like my dog.”

        Mark Twain

        Curle

        July 24, 2020 at 9:28 PM

    • >>Many police officers will leave for greener pastures knowing their days are numbered…

      There are no greener pastures for the proles. No matter how violent and chaotic our urban centers become there will always be enough white proles to take a cop job because there simply aren’t enough prole jobs that provide the salary, health and retirement benefits that policing does. Same with the military. The State know that they have the proles by the ba**s.

      Daniel H

      July 23, 2020 at 3:31 PM

      • By greener pastures i meant police officers moving out of the cities and becoming cops in smaller towns and rural areas. They can keep the same “prole” jobs but outside of the cities. The pay would be lower but so would the cost of living.

        B.T.D.T.

        July 24, 2020 at 10:09 AM

    • The solution is to get Trump reelected while taking over local and state governments as well as the institutions of city hall like the mayor, police, prosecutors, and maybe the city council.

      eradican

      July 25, 2020 at 7:51 AM

  6. Will greater NYC become more like Southern California, with cultural hubs and office hubs spread out more in the metro area, instead of tightly condensed in Manhattan?

    Will

    July 23, 2020 at 1:12 PM

    • It’s possible if NYC gets rids of its older buildings and housing projects to make room for green space. It would also include getting rid of NAMhattan (a new term coined for the NAM sections of Manhattan, especially the area north of 96th St).

      Ok, what, who's this again?

      July 24, 2020 at 10:26 AM

  7. So far the surge in violent crime in NYC and other large cities has been almost exclusively knucklehead vs. knucklehead nonsense in bad areas. It hasn’t been anything that should affect ordinary people. Of course that might change, but so far there’s no reason to panic.

    Peter

    ironrailsironweights

    July 23, 2020 at 1:20 PM

    • In February you said the coronavirus is less deadly than the flu, no reason to panic, and you were so wrong about that.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      July 23, 2020 at 1:57 PM

      • There have been 638K deaths so far worldwide from Covid and there were >1 million deaths worldwide from Hong Kong flu between ‘68-69 at a time worldwide population was a fraction of present. Wake me up when Covid deaths overtake Hong Kong flu deaths as a percent of world population.

        Curle

        July 24, 2020 at 9:38 PM

  8. Separately, if you’re looking for a business idea which should take off like a rocket in the coming months, consider men’s suits. Between business casual and more recently working from home, suit sales have been declining for many years. The parent corporation of Men’s Wearhouse and Jos. A. Bank is closing hundreds of stores, Brooks Brothers is closing stores as part of its bankruptcy reorganization and in any event has been deemphasizing men’s suits for years, most department stores have been downsizing their suit offerings, and Kohl’s sells only ready-to-wear suits that never fit right.
    Countering this lack of competition is what I am firmly convinced will be a major increase in demand for suits. In part this will happen when people now working from home begin returning to the office, but a bigger reason will be a reversion to more formal workplace attire. Business casual works best when the economy is thriving and jobs are plentiful. Being less worried about their futures makes it easier for workers to adopt a more relaxed way of dressing. When the economy is worse and jobs are scarce, which is likely to be the case for quite some time, people want to dress better to give off a more serious, businesslike air. Most of them won’t have suits in the back of the closet, or at least nothing they’ll want to wear, so suit sales will be going nowhere except up and up.

    Peter

    ironrailsironweights

    July 23, 2020 at 1:37 PM

    • Yeah I bet Lion will be all over that business idea.

      Mrs Stitch

      July 23, 2020 at 3:09 PM

    • Sure, I could see that. A bit of advice I got from my old man was to dress for the job you want, not the job you have. In the early 1980s I was working for a company where the dress code was casual for the most part, although the senior executives wore coats and ties every day. I was just an inside salesman, but I knew I wanted better so I began to dress in a coat and tie. Interestingly enough, my colleagues were not dismissive, nor did they snicker behind my back: they began to at least wear a tie to the office, and most donned a sport coat as well. Several years later I was recommended for promotion to a senior executive position, and I have always thought that looking the part from early on may have subconsciously caused the upper echelon to conclude that I was “one of them” and would fit it.

      Sgt. Joe Friday

      July 23, 2020 at 3:11 PM

      • “in,” not “it.”

        Sgt. Joe Friday

        July 23, 2020 at 3:12 PM

    • I’ve worked in middle-management corporate America for the past 30 years and, other than job interviews, haven’t worn a suit a single day.

      Deplorable Prole

      July 23, 2020 at 5:11 PM

    • I suspect that anyone who is going to wear a suit to work is already doing so.

      destructure

      July 25, 2020 at 10:08 AM

  9. The real reason NYC is circling the drain has nothing to do with the pandemic or rising crime. The real problems with NYC are 1) stagnant wages and 2) rising housing costs. The pandemic and rising crime are just the emotional kick in the pants spurring people to finally act.

    destructure

    July 23, 2020 at 1:46 PM

    • NYC could have gone on forever despite rising housing costs. And wages weren’t stagnant for the top 1%.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      July 23, 2020 at 1:58 PM

      • What’s the distribution of of top 1% who are in that category b/c of interest earnings alone compared to 1% b/c of salary?

        Curle

        July 24, 2020 at 9:42 PM

    • “… rising housing costs. …”

      This seems like a self-correcting problem that can’t really kill a city.

      JAMES SHEARER

      July 23, 2020 at 7:16 PM

      • It certainly seems that way doesn’t it. But that assumes NYC real estate is a free market. NYC has been losing people for years and the housing costs are still rising. Does that sound like a free market to you?

        NY has the highest population loss in the nation. NY has lost 1.4M people since 2010. And that was before the pandemic and crime surge. So that clearly wasn’t what started it.

        The simple fact is that NYC’s median income is below average while housing costs are above average.

        https://slate.com/business/2014/01/new-york-city-census-data-manhattan-and-brooklyn-are-much-poorer-than-you-think.html

        There are also family considerations of housing. You either live in an affordable neighborhood with crappy schools, an expensive neighborhood with good schools or pay for expensive private schools. The solution, of course, is merit based school admissions. But they’ll never do that!

        People are familiar with 3rd world shit holes. But not every shit hole is 3rd world. There are 1st world shit holes, too. Places that appear nice on the surface but where working and middle class people are struggling with the cost of living. You might not realize it until you crunch the numbers but NYC is a shit hole. So is the California bay area. And a lot of it has to do with immigration. But that’s a topic for another post.

        destructure

        July 24, 2020 at 12:25 PM

      • the world’s most valuable company, AAPL, is a toy maker led by a lisping homosexual who wants “hate speech” to be illegal.

        Does that sound like a free market to you?

        yeah. that’s exactly what a free market souds like.

        “free market capitalism” needs to change its name to “gay disco/bathhouse”.

        yt bulger

        July 25, 2020 at 7:14 PM

  10. Crime can certainly wreck New York. How do we know? Because crime badly damaged New York in the 1970s, and that was before most people had the option to telework.

    Dan

    July 23, 2020 at 2:10 PM

  11. I lived in nyc for six years and finally left when the virus showed up. Moved to SoCal and am loving it here. Long time nyc people have been saying that the city has increasingly felt hollow. The real estate increasingly owned by investors, left empty.

    Others say online dating destroyed the bar culture of nyc. The neighborhood feel has been eroded by the internet.

    But there are so many different life’s being lived there, depending on your social class and group it can be an extremely different experience.

    The city still gave me some of the best years of my life, and I think a small elite will always remain there. It’s common to run into the most successful people on the planet for your age group. Really shapes how you see the world and wealth gathering.

    But yeah I think it will decline, the move into Brooklyn by young people will stop, crime will overtake bush wick and the fringe areas.

    slave

    July 23, 2020 at 2:56 PM

    • This parasitic virus infects those who are the most hedonistic, poor and/or low IQ. Parasites find the most pleasure and joy when others are doing the heavy lifting.

      Is it karma or another natural cycle of creation and extinction?

      Ok, what, who's this again?

      July 24, 2020 at 9:42 AM

    • Sorry to sound out of it, but don’t future f**k buddies still need to meet in person before climbing in the sack?

      Curle

      July 24, 2020 at 9:47 PM

      • By the time Tinder hit the scene I was already too old to garner any attention on it, and this doesn’t seem like something you’d want to do given all the scammers and crazies out there, but guys on PUA forums say that attractive Chads can get girls to go from messaging on Tinder directly to coming over to their apartment.

        Hermes

        July 25, 2020 at 1:44 PM

  12. I stay because I have family here who won’t move. So far. But they are beginning to consider the possibility,

    The number one reason continues to be the difference in what you pay for housing (NYC vs everywhere else), and what you get for your money. All the other reasons (pandemic, crime, subways, etc) are subsidiary to the housing issue.

    It’s hard for a dyed-in-the-wool New Yorker to admit “defeat,” but if it’s starting to happen in my family, then it’s going to happen to lots of people.

    Amused Observer

    July 23, 2020 at 5:32 PM

  13. I only hope all those libtard ‘New Yorkers’ stay up there and not come to the south or places like Texas and bring their retard voting patterns. It baffles me how a total Marxist poophead got elected in the first place.

    A Texan

    July 23, 2020 at 5:34 PM

  14. So although we should cautious about saying “this time it’s different,” the post-BLM-protests political environment truly feels different to me, and I think we could be entering an era of soft-on-crime policing that will lead to an explosion of crime that will make New York City that much less desirable.

    How do you plan to fight off the mass release of axe wielding maniacs and pyromaniacs?

    With grenade launchers or flame thrower?

    The Undiscovered Jew

    July 23, 2020 at 5:51 PM

  15. “Death spiral” is a bit dramatic. I say “serious downturn”. With very few exceptions, young single women only want to live in big cities, which they associate with excitement and opportunity. And young men chase young women. And young white girls are too oblivious and/or p.c. to believe crime will happen to them (Tessa Majors). So, I’m almost certain there will be a surge of young people into these cities. It’s the families (and tax base) that will migrate further out.

    As for culture, you could have an artistic golden age in NYC if rents begin to plummet.

    Work-from-home simply will not become the norm. Managers at large companies are already complaining that people are using COVID and BLM to “check out” and turn in subpar work. You can tell that a correction is coming. Workers will be reined back in. For many companies there might be more openness to WFH, but it’s still going to be the exception as opposed to the rule.

    That said, the combo of COVID and “hands off’ policing could accelerate the trend of NYC reverting to what it was in the 1980’s. And “hands off” policing is going infect the school system too (even more so than now). Imagine your kid getting brutalized on the bus by a pack of “youths” and being publicly shamed for complaining to the school about it. Your kid gets suspended and you and him both have to attend a sensitivity class to get him back in(!). A notice is sent to your boss to explain why you won’t be at work that day.

    Would love for Lion to comment on NY Times’ new podcast called “Nice White Parents”. It’s an indictment of white parents for caring about their children, delivered by a faux-intellectual young lady with a vocal fry. The contempt voiced by these people for America’s white middle class is sickening. It’s practically exterminationist rhetoric.

    SWPL2

    July 23, 2020 at 5:52 PM

    • That scenario is crazy though. In real life you can’t treat people like dirt that way. Not like that. There has to be deniability.

      If you just straight up serve injustice and humiliate somebody, one of two things will happen. They will turn the community against you (the PTA, the church, the women’s league, etc). Or they will shoot you. Which one depends on social class.

      It’s only in movies and 20th century Communist dictatorships that somebody can get away with what you describe. We live under soft totalitarianism, but it’s soft b/c it does not have the force of arms of 20th century communism. Without armies of henchmen, you can’t brutalize people Solzhenitsyn-style.

      Lowe

      July 24, 2020 at 9:05 PM

    • I’m on the west coast and city life in places like San Francisco was great back in the 1990s and 2000s but not anymore. The drugs, homelessness, crime, and shady people everywhere was a shock to me back in the mid 2010s but its even worse now. New York is certainly on a death spiral. Even well off people I know of fled the city during the pandemic. A combination of global pandemic, economic collapse, soaring crime, and race riots will be its doom. Second tier cities with a conservative bent and suburban outlook like Las Vegas and San Diego will replace cesspools like New York. Even upper middle class and upper class white ladies are now in the way of so called “progress” with this anti-Karen stuff. The leftwing indoctrination of the school system was bad before I can’t imagine how terrible it is now. I’m glad Trump is president calling this shit out and enacting policies against it. Once he’s reelected there needs to be massive reform and an open assault on this crap.

      eradican

      July 25, 2020 at 7:43 AM

    • [As for culture, you could have an artistic golden age in NYC if rents begin to plummet.]

      This is my thinking. For every person who leaves, there will be 10, 20, 30 people willing to take their place at the right price. I would argue the population loss preceding covid was precipitated by impossible housing costs, not a distaste for city living. Even I would consider moving back to Manhattan if housing were dirt cheap, and I hate it there.

      Lion predicts a death spiral, I predict lion will be disappointed.

      toomanymice

      July 26, 2020 at 2:24 PM

  16. “The “death spiral” is an ill-defined term”

    It’s actually an aviation term describing an effect of spatial disorientation. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graveyard_spiral). Your definition is pretty much on target, though the reason things get worse is because of human input the human thinks will improve things. The FAA actually has a training film on the phenomenon that features a recording of a guy in a death spiral screaming for help on the radio that is absolutely horrifying.

    TWBC

    July 23, 2020 at 8:10 PM

  17. Something to be posted on your twitter feed – One thing that no one has really talked about in NYC during the pandemic. The ongoing construction of the second avenue subway line is set to be doomed from Covid-19. A multi-billion dollar project shoved down below the tunnels.

    https://nypost.com/2020/07/04/why-new-york-city-will-never-build-another-subway-station/

    Ok, what, who's this again?

    July 23, 2020 at 9:31 PM

  18. destructure

    July 24, 2020 at 2:34 PM

  19. Crime wasn’t rising under Bill de Blasio? Very hard to believe but standards were rapidly falling.

    I visited New York in the heyday of Giuliani and Bloomberg era reforms It was nice and pleasant.

    When I visited again a few years into the new mayor’s term it had fallen far fast becoming a dump.

    Even this Sopranos actor on Joe Rogan’s podcast claims that within months he knew it was over.

    Everything your commentators warned about liberal cities has come true prestige won’t save them.

    eradican

    July 25, 2020 at 8:24 AM

    • Small amounts of graffiti were visible after only two weeks. I (and as I recall the Lion) predicted that we would get to where we are now, but in much less time than it actually took. The Lion proposed that the reason it took so long was that the current level of disorder required young criminals to grow up never knowing what it was like to fear the police. This explains everything. (full disclosure, I didn’t watch the video).

      MoreSigmasThanYou

      July 25, 2020 at 2:44 PM

    • Although, he could stay in Staten Island as long as he wants. Guido Island hasn’t changed one iota since the dawn of time, when proles from Brooklyn made an exodus “en masse” into the island on a suspension bridge named after an explorer with a familiar surname.

      But yes, only Manhattan matters in NYC in terms of prestige. Now that, jobs are slowly moving away, urban pests gradually fade away, like rats and city pigeons disappear, because the food source is not there.

      Ok, what, who's this again?

      July 25, 2020 at 2:59 PM

  20. New York’s retail sector got a big setback a couple days ago when Neiman Marcus announced that it would be closing its huge new Hudson Yards store. It had gotten massive financial incentives from the developer, all of which are now in the “money down the drain” category. In fairness, this wasn’t necessarily a NYC-specific move, as Neiman Marcus is operating under bankruptcy protection and is closing many other stores throughout the country.
    Not far away, it looks as if the absurdly expensive, absurdly long under construction American Dream shopping/entertainment mall in New Jersey is doneski.

    Peter

    ironrailsironweights

    July 25, 2020 at 2:44 PM

    • You, a New Jerseyite, would probably agree with some of your neighbors that your state lacks the natural and man made vibrancy of NYS. Crossing the border from Paramus, NJ to Ramapo in Rockland Country brings you to an exotic land of moldy mountains, Chassidic Jews and NAMs in their dysfunctional sticks n stone towns like Monsey and Spring Valley. Hence the reason why New Jersey plays 2nd fiddle to New York. New Yorkers pay a heavy toll to entertain all kinds of citizens of the 3rd world. It’s call cosmopolitanism.

      Ok, what, who's this again?

      July 25, 2020 at 4:49 PM

  21. New York and other cities like it depend on a steady supply of young people to chew up and spit out. These are the kids who work in either crappy jobs or value-transference professions paying exorbitant cost-of-living expenses for the novelty of the city and the opportunity to be close to each other. This continues on for a few years until the value-transference career path fizzles or the crappy job can no longer pay for the $13 hamburgers and the all-night partying. These disillusioned young then cycle out to be replaced by a fresh batch of eager newcomers…wash, rinse and repeat.

    If the young people stop coming, then New York is in trouble.

    map

    July 26, 2020 at 12:52 AM

  22. OT: LA Times, 07/26/20 – By easing its bar exam score, will California produce more Black and Latino lawyers?

    https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-07-26/california-lowers-bar-exam-score-coronavirus

    But this month, the California Supreme Court, which oversees the state bar, agreed to lower the passing score for the exam, a victory for law school deans who have long hoped the change would raise the number of Black and Latino people practicing law…

    Forty percent of California’s population is white, 60% are people of color. But 68% of California lawyers are white, and only 32% are people of color, according to a new report by the State Bar of California…

    Of the first-time test takers from law schools accredited by the American Bar Assn., considered the top schools in the state, 51.7% of white graduates passed, compared with 5% of Black grads, 32.6% of Latinos and 42.2% of Asians. Whether the exam is culturally biased has been a question for law journals over the years, and critics have written that it fails to measure the real abilities required to be good lawyers.

    The average national bar exam passing score is 1350. New York’s is 1330. California’s was 1440 until the court permanently reduced it to 1390…

    E. Rekshun

    July 26, 2020 at 12:19 PM

    • The answer is yes, there will definitely be more minorities who are legally credentialed to practice law.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      July 26, 2020 at 4:39 PM


Comments are closed.

%d bloggers like this: