Lion of the Blogosphere

The current state of Covid-19 in the U.S.

Back in May, I did an estimate of how many would die in each age group, based on what happened in New York City, if we would just let the virus infect everyone without doing any social distancing. I stand by that as the theoretical scenario that probably couldn’t have happened because it’s simply not possible that everyone would just ignore the pandemic and carry on as if nothing was happening.

In the real world, the explosion of virus cases in New York City resulted in social distancing, both government mandated and voluntary. This social distancing has lowered the transmission rate.

I believe that there are two other factors at play keeping total deaths down.

(1) After a certain percentage of the population in a geographic area gets the virus, we see transmission rates drop. That happened most dramatically in the New York City metropolitan area which now has the fewest new cases of any large metropolitan area in the United States. But it also helps that Andrew Cuomo is taking the virus seriously and not allowing restaurants and bars to re-open.

It has been suggested that a certain percentage of the population already had partial resistance to Covid-19 because they previously had common-cold coronaviruses. I think there is merit to this theory, and helps explain why the transmission rates drop faster than expected.

The population isn’t homogeneous in their behavior. We can divide the population roughly into two groups. Group A, which is bad at social distancing (because they are essential workers or because they are just irresponsible people) have had a high percentage infected and transmission rates have dropped in this group even though they continue to be bad at social distancing. And then there is Group B, the good social distancers. We are working from home and not going out to restaurants or going to parties, and our group has a much lower rate of infected. If we were all suddenly to go back to behaving exactly how we behaved before the pandemic, this group would see a new mass wave of infections. The virus would literally go viral among us.

The bottom line here is that we do NOT have herd immunity. In New York City, we still have 200+ new cases every day, and we have a Group B that is relatively unexposed to the virus compared to Group A. Herd immunity only happens from a vaccine and we do not yet have a vaccine. And even when it comes, I’m pessimistic about how good of a job we will do making sure that everyone gets vaccinated. We have managed to fuck up everything else about responding to the pandemic.

(2) I have come across the theory that social distancing doesn’t just lower the transmission rate, it also lowers the average severity of infections. How sick you get is partially a function of how much initial viral load you pick up. Because of social distancing, people who do get infected are getting infected with a lower initial viral load so their illness isn’t as severe. This could help explain why the lethality of Covid-19 seems to have dropped since March.

When dumb conservatives and virus denier types say that “only” 176,000 have died from the virus (a number which still keeps going up every day) and therefore the virus isn’t a big deal and we overreacted, they are ignoring the fact that the only reason it’s 176,000 and not 1,760,000 is because Americans changed their behavior in response to the pandemic. We don’t change our behavior in response to the flu. That’s why, so far, the pandemic is “only” three times worse than a bad flu season based on total deaths attributed to flu and to Covid-19.

Despite how bad of job we are doing in response to the pandemic, the worst-case estimate from my post in May isn’t very likely to happen. But more will definitely die before it’s over. We keep getting worse and worse at social distancing, we are sending kids back to school, a new wave of cases before we get a vaccine seems kind of inevitable. I predict between 400,000 and 800,000 U.S. deaths from Covid-19 before the pandemic is ended with a vaccine. That’s between one-sixth and one-third of the worst-case estimates from my post in May.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

August 24, 2020 at 5:21 PM

89 Responses

Subscribe to comments with RSS.

  1. I see evidence that the virus was not in fact as bad as feared, and I see entirely predictable “it’s only not as bad as feared because of our awesome masks/distancing” tautologies. Thank you for sticking to a quite high 400k+ US additional death prediction, which I expect will fail.

    jg

    August 24, 2020 at 6:28 PM

  2. “When dumb conservatives and virus denier types say that ‘only’ 176,000 have died from the virus “

    I didn’t know them.

    “I predict between 400,000 and 800,000 U.S. deaths from Covid-19 before the pandemic is ended with a vaccine.”

    I probably won’t know any of them, either.
    *
    Why do you have to be so negative? Do you suffer depression or something?

    destructure

    August 24, 2020 at 7:29 PM

    • It’s not negative, it’s realistic.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      August 24, 2020 at 7:37 PM

      • What it is is insignificant. Half a million people die from tobacco every year and no one says squat. Now, a lot of those same people who would have died from tobacco and other self-inflicted causes are now dying from covid. A lot of them wouldn’t have died if they’d lived a healthier lifestyle. As usual, one can’t help people who won’t help themselves. And I don’t owe those people a thing. If you want to do something then eat right, exercise, take reasonable precautions and stop worrying about other people whom you have no control over. THAT is realistic.

        destructure

        August 24, 2020 at 9:37 PM

      • Lion i think you completely lost the plot. Have you noticed that in countries such as Italy the virus is killing almost no one and the intensive care units are empty?

        Few facts from Italy:
        1 – Infections are much milder now compared to 8 months ago – the virus has lost most of its viral charge according to several of the leading virologists in the country
        2 – Hospitals know how to treat patients so they minimise victims
        3 – Most of the new infected are asymptomatic – they had the virus without knowing it – still they register as positive

        we agree that US healthcare system is closer to a developing world country than an advanced nation for general public healthcare, but assuming a death rate similar to the beginning of the epidemic is simplistic at best.

        In any case since you fully bought in the “we all going to die” scream of the left, tell us what would be your plan if you were in charge. I am very curious to know.

        Seingalt

        August 25, 2020 at 11:14 AM

      • Italy had a strict lockdown, much stricter than anything we did in the U.S.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        August 25, 2020 at 10:59 PM

    • Ok, just being realistic. According to the NYTimes, 41% of all deaths occurred in nursing homes. Many of those folks have a life expectancy of less than a year. So, as a back of the envelope calculation, it is more like 100,000 deaths among those with a life expectancy of >1 year. And among those, the deaths were concentrated in the over 50 group who also have comorbid conditions, so people with a lower life expectancy than young healthy folks. Of course none of us wishes anyone dead, the fact remains that the deaths are heavily concentrated among those whose deaths are just not surprising. Taking in that dose of reality, the Covid 19 is not super bad. It is bad. It is lethal, but it is not super bad or super lethal.

      Alice

      August 25, 2020 at 6:01 PM

  3. if its 1/6th of what you predicted that pretty bad prediction….

    uman

    August 24, 2020 at 7:43 PM

    • Sounds like the Clinton 98% winning chance poll

      Seingalt

      August 25, 2020 at 11:14 AM

  4. Meanwhile S&P, NASDAQ are reaching higher and higher 😁. I did not vote for the pu$$y grabber but boy I’m proud Donnie boy is our president. He has done way better for the economy than I anticipated. It’s so strange that I’m liking Trump more and more whereas big Trump supporters in this forum are bad mouthing him. So weird.

    mpt

    August 24, 2020 at 8:27 PM

    • Many didn’t know what they were voting for and others didn’t know what they were voting against.

      eradican

      August 24, 2020 at 11:54 PM

    • Glad you are economically benefiting from the Trump presidency.

      And he is a far-leftist dream for foreign policy. He is destroying the US’s credibility and soft power in foreign policy. He’s alienating allies in the EU. Even hard power may not be so useful, since the US will get bogged down in a war against Iran or China. And China and Russia have a nuclear deterrent.

      I honestly cannot say that Hillary Clinton would better (from my perspective) than Donald Trump on foreign policy.

      Latias

      August 25, 2020 at 2:32 AM

      • Trump’s treatment of our allies (especially France, Germany, Canada) is what endears him to his base and you are blaming leftists. Hilarious!!
        Trump acting tough with our allies pays dividends for many sides.

        First half of Donnie boy’s presidency was bad surely, but he has greatly delivered on so many fronts, mainly economy. I did vote for Hillary, but I would not hesitate to vote for him if I had to do it all over again.

        mpt

        August 25, 2020 at 11:41 AM

      • Latias: “credibility and soft power in foreign policy” sounds like “coalition-building” which America wants no more of. We don’t want power over foreign countries. We just want to be left alone. As for our “allies” in the EU, what a joke. They are nothing but parasites who demand but never give us anything in return.

        And you may notice that Trump hasn’t started any new wars. He’s the least warmongering Prez of all time.

        Pete

        August 25, 2020 at 2:01 PM

      • I don’t like Trump as a person, but “alienating allies in the EU”?

        Are you serious? What alternatives have they? It is US or bust.

        Are they going to get a mutual defence treaty with Russia or China or N. Korea or the Saudis?

        Seriously.

        EU countries are not that dumb. They know he has max 4 more years and then there will be someone new, and they still won’t have alternatives to the US military.

        Alice

        August 25, 2020 at 6:06 PM

      • Trump is the best president in my lifetime in foreign policy. He is almost as good as Nixon, who ended the Vietnam War and opened relations with China.

        Trump has started no new conflicts overseas, while continuing to support military spending, which is important to the US economy. He has pulled US troops from Syria, while still making it clear we will strike at those who threaten innocent people. He has done his best to get our troops back from Afghanistan, despite massive resistance in DC, even from his own staff.

        The faggots in the EU are the last kind of allies the US needs. They literally do not pay their bills, bills they agreed to in an international treaty for their own defense.

        Trump has done more to prevent a war with Russia or China than anyone else on earth is doing. He has strained himself seeking good relations with with these people, with basically the entire US news media baying for blood for trans rights or some other pozz, and making up hoaxes about election meddling.

        You are a fool and probably not an American, and you should not talk about American foreign policy.

        Lowe

        August 25, 2020 at 10:24 PM

      • @ Alice

        Five years is a lifetime in politics and Trump has been advocating reform since 2015/2016 first as a candidate for president then as president. NATO will not survive a second Trump term. Places like Britain, Europe, and Ukraine are the main sources of the anti-Trump conspiracy together with their domestic US agents of influence. They want America to act as their sword and shield while they antagonize Russia with impunity. Russia is the most resource rich country in Europe, Russia has the most powerful army in Europe, Russia has the largest cities in Europe, and Russia is the largest country in Europe. It’s time to accept that Russia is the master of Europe.

        https://www.rt.com/op-ed/492155-nato-trump-second-term/

        eradican

        August 26, 2020 at 5:21 AM

      • “Trump has done more to prevent a war with Russia or China than anyone else on earth is doing”

        Besides Trump, his loony henchmen like Pompeo and the Trumpsters all believe Covid-19 came out of China as a biological weapon to force America on its knees.

        Ok, what, who's this again?

        August 26, 2020 at 8:01 AM

      • “I did not vote for the pu$$y grabber but boy I’m proud Donnie boy is our president. He has done way better for the economy than I anticipated. It’s so strange that I’m liking Trump more and more whereas big Trump supporters in this forum are bad mouthing him. So weird”

        Trump is ok for now. Watching a clip of his Donnie Jr speaking on the podium at the RNC seemed creepy. When people think of Republicans and any right wing faction as reactionary or “angry”, he sure delivered it with this one. The dude was teary eye high as a kite with his hand-fist wave-knock like a sign language translator.

        Ok, what, who's this again?

        August 27, 2020 at 11:12 AM

      • “And you may notice that Trump hasn’t started any new wars. He’s the least warmongering Prez of all time.”

        For many, that’s a bug, not a feature.

        Mike Street Station

        August 29, 2020 at 7:38 AM

      • More Americans have died from Covid-19 than in Korean War, Vietnam War, and all subsequent wars combined. Before this pandemic is over, you can probably add WWII to that as well.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        August 31, 2020 at 9:55 PM

    • It’s so strange that I’m liking Trump more and more whereas big Trump supporters in this forum are bad mouthing him

      When the stock market does well, SWPLs benefit. White proles and rural Americans, not so much. The paradox of Trump is that he has been an economic boon to the people that hate him the most, and has mostly screwed his base.

      Peter Akuleyev

      August 25, 2020 at 5:06 PM

      • That’s what makes Trump a genius. That’s why I have started to like Trump. Btw, ALL Americans benefit when market does well. Lots of non swpls have 401ks, mutual funds. Even pensions invest in market.

        mpt

        August 26, 2020 at 3:04 AM

      • Where do you get this crap or is just another attempt to create some type of wedge between Trump and his base for the millionth time? It’s the same type of BS you spew about Putin and Russia as well. A growing economy benefits everyone. While the stock market isn’t everything it’s not nothing either.

        MAGA represents all people high, middle, and low like a proper political coalition should. Trump has done very well for his base I ought to know since I’ve been supporting him since the first day he decided to run for president. I’ve been a major Trump fan before that as well. If you liked the 1990s you’ll be satisfied with Trump.

        eradican

        August 26, 2020 at 5:11 AM

  5. Videos going viral of NAMs shooting other NAMs while wearing facial covering in NYC. They’re social distancing and wearing masks as the barrel of the gun goes pop n pop.

    We should leave evolution alone and not enforce anything. The Social Darwinian effect is that those with lower IQs will die from Covid-19 or a shooting spree.

    Ok, what, who's this again?

    August 24, 2020 at 8:51 PM

  6. One lesson we’ve learned: if you’re a man, don’t be fat. A major research project from the Kaiser health care system shows that even if the absence of any comorbidities obesity is a major risk factor for death in men. It is not a risk factor for women, because women tend to pack on excess avoirdupois on the hips and rumps, where it’s largely harmless. Men aren’t so lucky, as they usually carry excess weight on their abdomens, where it can wreak all sorts of havoc.

    Peter

    ironrailsironweights

    August 24, 2020 at 8:57 PM

  7. Trump bungled this big time. The question is though, were the Democrats (like Schumer) who were calling travel bans from places like China (as late as the beginning of March!) “racist” being sincere? Or were they just being anti-Trump for the sake of being anti-Trump?

    Because if they were being sincere and would have actually not restricted travel from China (at least not until much later than it had been under Trump) then Democrats doing better than Trump with the virus isn’t as slam dunk obvious as it would first appear.

    Brett

    August 24, 2020 at 9:16 PM

    • meh,

      Hilary would have not done better.

      Folks in NYC were laughing at the Covid which is why it hit them so hard. Here in Texas, folks were seriously hiding out long before we were told we had to. We had our first cases well before New York did. It wasn’t till the summer protests that we got the big outbreaks.

      Hilary would have had that same NYC attitude and far more of the country would have been like NYC.

      Hilary v. Trump

      Trump is definitely the lesser of two evils.

      No matter how bad something is, it can always be worse!

      Biden is also worse.

      Much much worse.

      Alice

      August 25, 2020 at 6:14 PM

    • “Because if they were being sincere and would have actually not restricted travel from China (at least not until much later than it had been under Trump) then Democrats doing better than Trump with the virus isn’t as slam dunk obvious as it would first appear.”

      It never seemed obvious to me that the Democrats would have done better. Not only would they not allowed a travel ban, when it was their economy in an election year, I don’t think they would have allowed massive shutdown’s either. Shutdowns were attractive to them now because they could indulge their inner Mussolini and blame Trump for massive economic damage in an election year.

      Mike Street Station

      August 27, 2020 at 6:11 AM

  8. It hit me the other day – it’s kind of weird that I haven’t been sick with anything since November (when I had a relatively bad case of the flu). Not even the incessant colds that seem to hit every few months in normal times.

    Jokah Macpherson

    August 24, 2020 at 9:27 PM

    • Scroll down to the picture of the woman showing how far they have to ram the swab up your nasal passage to test for covid. That’s intimidating.

      https://www.theverge.com/2020/8/24/21377011/robot-nasal-swab-machine-autonomous-covid-19-test-brain-navi

      destructure

      August 24, 2020 at 10:54 PM

      • I got the LabCorp SARS-CoV-2 PCR test last week (72 hr turnaround, negative). The tech swabbed the bottom of both nostrils with a Q-tip. So if swab-ramming is an issue, look for a site that performs that version of the test.

        amac78

        August 25, 2020 at 7:10 AM

    • As far as I know, I haven’t had a cold or flu in over a decade. I’m sure I’ve had something. But it was too mild to notice.

      destructure

      August 24, 2020 at 11:07 PM

    • Yes one of the benefits of social distancing, aggressive sanitation, frequent handwashing, and restrictive travel is the elimination of most common diseases, colds, viruses, and pathogens. I hope the changes are here to stay for the long term. At large social gatherings automated temperature checks at entry points and sanitation portals spraying disinfectants will also become the new normal.

      eradican

      August 24, 2020 at 11:48 PM

      • Smart, so your immune system will be completely ineffective to fight off any serious infection.

        Seingalt

        August 25, 2020 at 11:18 AM

      • The third world has plenty of “immunity” and it doesn’t help them much. I’d rather live in a sanitation dictatorship than the third world. This is likely going to be the new healthcare paradigm of the 21st century so you better start getting used to it.

        eradican

        August 26, 2020 at 4:11 AM

  9. Can you explain using your high IQ why Trump is being blamed for 180,000 deaths? Except dems Trump derangement syndrome of course. Wasn’t Trump called racist by the very same people early into this for shutting down air travel from China? Why didn’t Cuomo and de Blasio step up and instead allowed crisis to happen in NY? Don’t they want to keep Trump and his policies out of the state/city? Who’s responsible for coronavirus nursing homes fiasco?

    cannotwest

    August 24, 2020 at 9:50 PM

    • “Who’s responsible for coronavirus nursing homes fiasco?”

      Trump’s fault for not changing Medicaid rules to pay for hospital stays for those patients.

      Sad that Trump supporters get so outraged that Cuomo handled the virus better than Trump that all they can do is attack him for nursing home deaths that aren’t his fault, and probably weren’t even caused by those medically stable patients; rather the virus spread around nursing homes by nursing home employees, who lacked PPE at the beginning of the pandemic because of a failure by the federal government to secure PPE.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      August 24, 2020 at 10:51 PM

      • Cuomo is a murderer certainly guilty of manslaughter but he’s also smarter than Trump because he refuses to accept any outside investigation into the issue knowing full well it’ll be a partisan investigation, pubic spectacle, propaganda campaign, and political witch hunt with incentives to determine guilt and not prove innocence.

        eradican

        August 24, 2020 at 11:42 PM

      • Did you have PPE at the beginning of the pandemic Lion?

        MoreSigmasThanYou

        August 25, 2020 at 4:17 AM

      • I did not.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        August 25, 2020 at 7:54 AM

      • Just never understood the commenters on your blog who are criticizing the politicians for handling the pandemic. If anything, Covid-19 infects and kills NAMs at a far greater rate than Whites, which serves as a positive reminder for those who seek a greater America.

        Ok, what, who's this again?

        August 25, 2020 at 8:13 AM

      • You only had to get PPE for one person, yourself, and you couldn’t even do that. You expect the government in Washington to provide emergency supplies to private citizens all across the U.S.; but you admit that for all your alleged foresight and caution, you either weren’t smart enough to be prepared or you didn’t care.

        Who had more obligation to provide PPE to your octogenarian father; you or president Trump? I bet your dad didn’t have any PPE at the start of this either. Trump’s personal fortune divided by the population of the U.S. is only a few dollars per capita. Who had more free time and discretionary income to spend on PPE for your father, you, or president Trump?

        By the way, I actually *DID* have PPE ready before the pandemic. My wife never had to do without supplies during the pandemic, and she never had to worry that she’d have to do without.

        That makes me one of only four people I personally know of who were adequately prepared. Two of us were protecting only our nuclear families. One was a hospital administrator who bought enough PPE for everyone working under him, and he paid for it on his personal credit card. The fourth person is a Mega Society member, who advised other people on what PPE to get. I was gratified to see that he advised them to purchase some of the exact same items I already had.

        This gives the four of us the right to criticize all the people who weren’t prepared. Although, collectively and individually, you have no standing on which to criticize each other. It may sound harsh, but instead of complaining that others failed to do the things that you yourself failed to do, here’s a better alternative:

        Become the man that you wish would come rescue you.

        MoreSigmasThanYou

        August 25, 2020 at 4:11 PM

      • “Trump’s fault for not changing Medicaid rules to pay for hospital stays for those patients.”

        I thought it was supposed to be to clear out hospital beds to prevent them from being overwhelmed. Not every case is deserving of hospitalization. According to the NYT:

        “At issue is a directive that Mr. Cuomo’s administration delivered in late March, effectively ordering nursing homes to accept coronavirus patients from hospitals.

        The goal was to free up hospitals’ beds at a time when those facilities were being overwhelmed by fresh waves of virus patients. But family members and nursing home staff feared that sending those patients to nursing homes may have created a dangerous environment that allowed the virus to quickly spread.”

        “rather the virus spread around nursing homes by nursing home employees, who lacked PPE at the beginning of the pandemic because of a failure by the federal government to secure PPE.”

        Gee, I wonder how those nursing home workers got infected. Yeah, the federal government probably could have done a better job with PPE. But it’s a fundamentally different kind of failure, one level of government doesn’t provide the level of aid it should, and another forces you to engage in dangerous behavior.

        Cuomo was certainly politically savier than Dumb Prole President. He came out of it looking better. But what were the actual results of his actions?

        I happen to think that there should be a very high bar for forcing someone to expose themselves to an infectious disease. Yes, there are conditions where it can be acceptable to do so, but you have to ask, is there any other way of doing this? There were at the time a lot of empty dorms when they shut down the colleges and lots of unemployed workers, caregiving is not a high-skilled job. Could they have done it? Did they even think about it? Probably not, because they don’t have much respect for liberty. I’m fine with raising taxes on the rich, but I realize it doesn’t end there. So I’m not endorsing or voting for either Trump or Biden.

        Alexander Turok

        August 25, 2020 at 7:37 PM

      • My man has so many more sigmas than the rest of us, he’s proud he managed to hoard some toilet paper before there were lines.

        That way when he shit his pants like the rest of the alt-right blogosphere, he was prepared to clean up the mess.

        Lowe

        August 26, 2020 at 8:32 AM

      • MEH 0910

        August 26, 2020 at 2:03 PM

      • MSTY — Well said. I’m starting to see this virus as a different kind of IQ test that separates those who think they’re smart from those who really are.
        **
        Turok — “Gee, I wonder how those nursing home workers got infected. Yeah, the federal government probably could have done a better job with PPE. But it’s a fundamentally different kind of failure, one level of government doesn’t provide the level of aid it should, and another forces you to engage in dangerous behavior.”

        That’s a good point. And one which I expect Leon to ignore. He’s unpersuaded by reason.

        destructure

        August 26, 2020 at 5:22 PM

      • “My man has so many more sigmas than the rest of us, he’s proud he managed to hoard some toilet paper before there were lines.

        That way when he shit his pants like the rest of the alt-right blogosphere, he was prepared to clean up the mess.”

        The only thing more difficult than forgiving someone for being wrong is forgiving someone for being right when you were the one who was wrong. This explains much of the rage from corona-denying retards. Yes, I managed to hoard before the rest of you, and I got quite a laugh at the pics on Facebook of the lines at the grocery store. No, I ain’t sorry about it.

        https://alexanderturok.wordpress.com/2020/02/01/dont-use-corona-to-signal/

        Alexander Turok

        August 27, 2020 at 8:33 AM

    • There was going to be 2 million, remember? Trump saved 1.8 million lives.

      SlushFundPuppie

      August 25, 2020 at 1:42 AM

      • That belongs in a campaign ad! haha

        destructure

        August 26, 2020 at 5:24 PM

  10. As usual all you see is America and completely ignoring data from other places. In Australia, where there are far more Chinese than in the US relatively, there was no need for masks in most states, everything was open with some limitation and kids are back in school for a long time during winter. Still we don’t see all the doom and gloom you predict. You just don’t want to admit that there is no one pattern and that Trump was not better or worst than any other politician around the world because nobody knew what they were doing and still don’t know.

    Hashed

    August 24, 2020 at 11:16 PM

    • Australia has among the more draconian lockdowns and violent police-backed enforcement of quarantine and mask wearing rules. It’s literally all over most international news sites. How can you not know this? I conclude that you must be a fool.

      TorontoTraveller

      August 25, 2020 at 5:36 PM

      • That’s because it just happened about a month ago and only in one state Victoria, the rest of the country is still open as per usual and masks were never required. The situation in Victoria is not that bad to start with but they took very excessive precautions, I am not sure if it really helps as it seems like things don’t change much.

        Hashed

        August 26, 2020 at 6:31 PM

  11. it’s revealing that the slowdown in mortality is owing mostly to behavior, not medical intervention.

    Snowgrass

    August 25, 2020 at 1:44 AM

    • No, the slowdown in mortality is seasonal. All respiratory viral infections are worse in the winter.

      And the **only** difference in indoor air between summer and winter is humidity.

      Dan

      August 27, 2020 at 5:40 PM

  12. Lion…

    What does it even mean when it’s claimed that one has died of “Covid-19?”

    thordaddy

    August 25, 2020 at 3:25 AM

    • It means they died from complications from Covid-19. Usually total inability to breath, or cytokine storms that attack all organs and cause the body to shut down.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      August 25, 2020 at 7:54 AM

  13. How many of those 176,00 would have died anyway, within a year so so? Maybe 160,000? Maybe 170,000? Covid-19 certainly did shorten the lifespan of those people, but probably only by a few months on average. Sure a few months is a lot if you’re at death’s door, but the idea that the virus “killed” 176,000 people is disingenuous.

    Schmoady

    August 25, 2020 at 10:25 AM

    • This. Why does it matter if they died in the first place? Most of these people were at the brink of death already and did not meaningfully contribute to the economy. We killed millions of jobs at the expense of adding a few months of life for a bunch of old people.

      Ramdam

      August 27, 2020 at 12:07 AM

  14. More people die from cigarettes and their externalities every year than COVID. Now we have cigs and vaping (which is far more potent than cigs). LOTB never cared about that. Says it all. It’s all about money. As soon as some *creative* types figure out how to monetize COVID, we should expect to hear a lot less about how dangerous it is.

    Face it, COVID shouldn’t have the status of most important health risk of our time. It’s just another on top of the existing pile.

    Sweden is doing just fine. What groups aren’t in Sweden? It’s easy to tell without looking.

    Klerk Kant

    August 25, 2020 at 1:28 PM

    • More people have died from Covid-19 already this year than die from lung cancer every year.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      August 25, 2020 at 11:00 PM

      • Klerk Kant said “cigarettes” not “lung cancer”. Tobacco kills nearly half a million people per year. Covid has a long way to go to reach that this year.

        destructure

        August 26, 2020 at 1:41 AM

      • Cigarette smoking is voluntary and you can’t catch it from someone.

        But I totally supported the ban on smoking in restaurants and bars.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        August 27, 2020 at 7:12 AM

      • My point was that you misquoted Klerk Kant to refute a point he didn’t make.

        Regardless, contracting covid may not be voluntary but many of the preexisting conditions that have made it deadly are. Without those preexisting conditions, for many people it would just be a bad flu.

        destructure

        August 29, 2020 at 9:44 AM

  15. Who knows how many of those deaths were actually caused by COVID-19 instead of dying with COVID-19? For example, if someone dies as a result of a car accident and is tested positive for the virus, he is listed as a COVID-19 death by some hospitals.

    I for one am glad that chefs and other food preparers will now have to wear masks. It’s a good change.

    telling it like it is

    August 25, 2020 at 1:32 PM

    • There was and has been a shortage of tests. Covid-19 deaths are being UNDERCOUNTED not overcounted.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      August 25, 2020 at 11:01 PM

      • Covid INFECTIONS are being undercounted which leads to an exaggerated fatality rate. But one would think most of those sick enough to die from covid are seeking treatment and, therefore, being tested.

        destructure

        August 26, 2020 at 1:44 AM

    • During the height of the epidemic in April a former co-worker texted me to say that another former co-worker had died. About a minute later she sent another text to say that “Charlie” had died of the virus. During the minute or so between texts it did not even occur to me that it had been the virus. Charlie had been in such poor health with uncontrolled diabetes and heart disease that I figured one or both of them had caught up with him. He had been in his middle to late 60’s, not really that old.
      I suspect that a good percentage of the people under 75 or even 80 who died of the virus were in similarly poor states of health.

      Peter

      ironrailsironweights

      August 26, 2020 at 1:57 AM

      • Dying from the virus puts fear into the citizens, but far more scary, is the fact that people are afraid of the cruel symptoms, even though it’s not fatal. An influenza bout doesn’t involve a 1 ton elephant sitting on your chest causing pain, tightness and difficulty in breathing. Covid-19 does that, and so does the Alien embryo in its final stages, as it tries to burst out of the chest wall in a sci-fiction realm.

        Ok, what, who's this again?

        August 27, 2020 at 8:37 AM

  16. telling it like it is

    August 25, 2020 at 1:45 PM

  17. Since you’re a law school graduate, maybe you can chime in with this story.

    https://www.wired.com/story/how-four-brothers-allegedly-fleeced-19-million-amazon/

    I’m trying to learn about the selling process on Amazon after reading the news about 4 brothers from the Chassidim community in the Lower Hudson Valley, (Monsey, NY – Rockland County) who bilked the company millions of dollars in over-shipment fees reimbursement acting as 3rd party vendors.

    Proles often think they could mess with large corporate conglomerates like Amazon and get away with murder, once they pulled up a short lived trick from their sleeves.

    Ok, what, who's this again?

    August 25, 2020 at 1:49 PM

  18. “I have come across the theory that social distancing doesn’t just lower the transmission rate, it also lowers the average severity of infections. How sick you get is partially a function of how much initial viral load you pick up. Because of social distancing, people who do get infected are getting infected with a lower initial viral load so their illness isn’t as severe. This could help explain why the lethality of Covid-19 seems to have dropped since March.”

    That is way overthinking it. Viral load is not measurable and so this is just pure speculation without any evidence, but seasonality of respiratory illness have been understood for at least 100 years. Spanish flu had a summer lull and then returned hard with fall and winter, and COVID-19 similarly has been much milder in the summer.

    A group from Yale University and the University of Zurich Institute of Primary Care released an extensive paper that is a survey of 130 papers on the seasonality of respiratory infections. Humidity is a controlling factor in severity of viral respiratory diseases.

    https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev-virology-012420-022445

    See especially sections 5.1.1-5.1.3 and figures 3-5, which discuss the science behind using humidity to fight respiratory infections.

    The COVID case fatality rate (CFR) has been about 4x lower in Florida, Georgia and Texas than in Connecticut, New York and Massachusetts. Clearly it must be the superior medicine of the deep south. It can’t be that respiratory illness severity is humidity-dependent.

    Dan Hess

    August 26, 2020 at 8:44 AM

  19. This should be of great interest to you and another commenter by the name of “MaryK”.

    An intersection of Indian BO, Anti-Guidoism, Covid-19, and also the seedy, humid, low-prole state of Florida.

    A 34 year old Joisey man by the name of Sudeep Kehtani placed phone orders with various pizzerias and restaurants in the South Brunswick area during the height of the pandemic in April only to play a prank on them. He never paid and picked up the orders, and when the businesses called him back, he would say something like, hell with you Italians, let Covid-19 infect you guys.

    https://nj1015.com/florida-man-who-hates-italians-made-fake-orders-to-nj-pizzerias-cops-say/

    He was recently arrested in Florida, and NJ authorities caught up with him, only because he was selling fake Disney tickets in the Tropicana State.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/prankster-who-phoned-in-hundreds-of-fake-food-orders-during-pandemic-arrested-police-say/ar-BB18ph65?ocid=hplocalnews

    Ok, what, who's this again?

    August 26, 2020 at 10:01 PM

    • The moral of this story? Never mess with guidos! But one question: When did our commenter, the person formerly known as “JS” change his name to Sudeep Kehtani?……..

      Actually, the Italians were happy not to have him come in to pick up the pizzas. They said to each other “Well, there’s one good thing about this scam. At least we didn’t have to smell any Indian B.O.! “

      Maryk (the g-loaded guidette)

      August 28, 2020 at 2:13 AM

      • Doesn’t this guy share something in common with our blog master?

        Lion’s moral of the story is to get a good paying job so one doesn’t have to live with neighbors whose neighborhoods comes out of a Soprano scene.

        Ok, what, who's this again?

        August 28, 2020 at 12:23 PM

      • Sudeep comes from Middlesex County, NJ where South Brunswick is located. The demographics of the area is evenly split with Asians (as in Indians and not Eastern Asiatics) and Whites. It’s one of those scenarios where high income, professional class Indians are out-earning their middle income, working class White neighbors. Most probably Sudeep, despite being a prolish loser, subconsciously perceives Whites in his vicinity as “White Trash”, relatively comparing to his professional class of fellow Indians, hence his dislike for those lowly pizzeria folks.

        https://datausa.io/profile/geo/middlesex-county-nj

        Ok, what, who's this again?

        August 28, 2020 at 5:09 PM

      • “Lion’s moral of the story is to get a good paying job so one doesn’t have to live with neighbors whose neighborhoods comes out of a Soprano scene.”

        Sorry, JS. But people don’t aim for high salaries in order to avoid guido neighborhoods. When guidos move in, property values go up. That’s because you can safely walk the streets of those neighborhoods. Most white people want a safe neighborhood to live in and not to have neighbors who will alienate them. They aren’t obsessed with social class the way you and Lion are. Not being judgmental – just pointing out why others don’t seem to view Italian neighborhoods the way you do.

        Maryk (the g-loaded guidette)

        August 28, 2020 at 11:56 PM

    • Trump supporters think Covid-19 is a lot of bullshit. Except for when Cuomo required nursing homes to take back medically stable Covid-19 patients. In that one, and only one, scenario, Covid-19 is a Very Serious Disease.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      August 28, 2020 at 12:12 PM

      • I’m not sure you’re a good judge of what Trump supporters think or don’t think. If by a “lot of bullshit” you mean don’t think the virus even exists, then you’re way off. But to be fair, I have a hard time figuring out what SWPL’s think or don’t think. Your pimping for Cuomo is puzzling to me considering how he presided over the worse Covid carnage in the country (and nursing homes included of course).

        Mike Street Station

        August 28, 2020 at 3:20 PM

      • “Your pimping for Cuomo is puzzling to me considering how he presided over the worse Covid carnage in the country (and nursing homes included of course).”

        Lion’s pimping for Cuomo is puzzling considering how much Lion dislikes Italians. Would Lion really want to see Cuomo as our first guido president?

        Maryk (the g-loaded guidette)

        August 28, 2020 at 11:58 PM

      • The medicare rules at the time gave financial incentives for the treating hospitals to discharge infectious individuals who no longer needed inpatient care. Medicare would not pay the hospitals to keep someone who is an inpatient who no longer needed care.

        The problem with nursing homes, specialty nursing care, and covid-19 is that the topic is more nuanced than can be discussed in sound bytes on cable nnews shows or radio talk shows.

        superdestroyer

        August 29, 2020 at 11:14 AM

  20. I went from worrying about it a lot to not worrying about it. I work in a very crowded environment in a hotspot (at one time #1 per capita in the Western U.S). Many of my co-workers caught this and recoverd including an obese diabetic guy. I think I have been exposed to this virus a lot and my immune system knows how to handle it. Maybe I am too optimistic (which normally isn’t my nature) and will still end up catching it and dying from it but I have no fear at this point. Perhaps if I was 10 or 20 years older I would be worried as the risk of death is a lot higher in the oldest age groups.

    Jay Fink

    August 27, 2020 at 4:39 PM

  21. De Blasio shoving poor people right next to rich people on the UWS. It serves them right. Liberals giving it to their wealthier cohorts. De Blasio is the De Man!

    Ok, what, who's this again?

    August 28, 2020 at 12:18 PM

  22. NYC sounds like it sucks more and more every day. Everything that makes it special is gone/closed. When are you moving to the mountains and starting your writing career?

    Backwoods toothless prole HUGE lion fanboi

    August 29, 2020 at 10:45 AM

  23. OT: Kenosha

    I thought this video would be of interest since it includes a couple of clips I haven’t seen elsewhere that provides more context to the first shooting. There’s a clip of the first man shot being aggressive and trying to pick a fight. Then it shows several clips of him from different angles chasing the kid with a molotov cocktail. He throws it at the kid and misses before catching him and trying to take his gun.

    It also shows the clips most people have probably seen of several men attacking him on the ground. Including one who kicks him in the head, another who hits him with a skateboard and a third who runs up with a pistol to shoot him in the head. I’m impressed because there was a lot of confusion and a lot of people running around. But the kid only shot the people who were attacking him. It would have been easy for him to have made a mistake and shot the wrong person. But he handled himself like a boss.

    (https://www.bitchute.com/video/8NY2GS3B6aGL/)

    After watching this, I’m surprised they charged him. But I guess it’s politically safer for politicians to charge the kid and let a jury acquit him.

    PS: The first one shot spent 12.5 years in prison for sexually abusing a child. But it’s still disgusting that several people are shoving their smart phones in his face to record him dying. Wtf is wrong with people?

    PPS: GoFundMe disabled the page raising money for Kyle’s defense. I realize they’re worried about being boycotted and losing money. And I could understand them disabling a page raising money for a controversial organization. But not a page raising money for someone’s legal defense. At what point does something like that become discrimination?

    destructure

    August 29, 2020 at 11:47 AM

    • It looked like a molotov cocktail. But I watched it again in slow-motion and could be a bag of something noxious. There should be a $5K fine for throwing something noxious on someone.

      destructure

      August 29, 2020 at 12:15 PM

  24. OT:

    Writer Vicky Osterweil’s book, In Defense of Looting, came out on Tuesday. When she finished it, back in April, she wrote (rather presciently) that “a new energy of resistance is building across the country.” Now, as protests and riots continue to grip cities, she argues that looting is a powerful tool to bring about real, lasting change in society. The rioters who smash windows and take items from stores, she says, are engaging in a powerful tactic that questions the justice of “law and order,” and the distribution of property and wealth in an unequal society.

    MEH 0910

    August 29, 2020 at 2:18 PM


Comments are closed.

%d bloggers like this: