Lion of the Blogosphere

Excess deaths outstrip official Covid-19 deaths

For people who don’t read my tweets:

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

September 3, 2020 at 9:21 AM

44 Responses

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  1. The number of excess deaths since June 1 has been negligible, if you look at raw numbers. Deaths for those over age 85 is actually down about 1000 per week. Younger ages are up slightly, but not much. See the latest CDC figures.
    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

    Roger

    September 3, 2020 at 10:19 AM

  2. This analysis assumes all excess deaths are covid. That’s elementary school level analysis/assumptions. There is much more going on. Ethical Skeptic is all over this. His analysis is not the 6% number from CDC which is a red herring but approx. 27%.

    Andrew E.

    September 3, 2020 at 10:59 AM

  3. Having symptoms of a choke hold is bad enough. But not enough Meriproles are scare of Covid, because there aren’t enough young people having trouble breathing. Old people who are seeing their days numbered and now dying from the virus isn’t much of a scare tactic.

    Ok, what, who's this again?

    September 3, 2020 at 11:22 AM

    • Someone should add Meriproles to urbandictionary because that term is new to me & I do not know if that is a term readers of this blog are expected to know.

      Blake

      September 6, 2020 at 5:39 PM

  4. LotB: Yes, you can catch the virus on a bus.

    Sure, but if I rode a bus, I’d be more concerned about catching a sucker punch or other violence from the many dysfunctional bus riders.

    E. Rekshun

    September 3, 2020 at 11:32 AM

    • Jeezus, where the hell do you live?

      Peter Akuleyev

      September 4, 2020 at 7:01 AM

      • I think he lives in New Jersey.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        September 4, 2020 at 8:53 AM

      • More like the Tropicana State, which isn’t different from the NY-Tri-State Area, when it comes to obnoxious proles, blacks and Caribbean Hispanics.

        Ok, what, who's this again?

        September 4, 2020 at 9:22 AM

      • Maybe he’s exaggerating, but have you seen the news in France recently of bus drivers being pulled off their busses, and in one case beaten to death? So it looks like this is the kind of thing we all have to look forward to.

        prolier than thou

        September 4, 2020 at 12:35 PM

  5. I’ve heard excess deaths put us around ~20% more than reported covid deaths.

    That graph looks a lot more than 20%..

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ef9cQISWkAEla-F?format=png&name=large

    These are higher excess estimates beyond anything else I’ve read.

    Kaz

    September 3, 2020 at 12:16 PM

  6. Many hospitals have informally gone back and looked at Pneumonia patients from January and now believe that some of them had Covid-19 before anyone knew that the disease existed. My guess is that some places were slow to report Covid-19 deaths so anyone who died in Feb or Mar from Pneumonia, Asthma attacks, or acute respiratory syndrome is a possible Covid-19 death.

    superdestroyer

    September 3, 2020 at 1:28 PM

  7. If you want something more urban-oriented, this centrally located contemporary townhouse with a very spacious 3,000 square feet will be completed in early 2021.
    https://www.trulia.com/p/wy/cody/1235-rumsey-ave-cody-wy-82414–2493822099

    Peter

    ironrailsironweights

    September 3, 2020 at 1:28 PM

  8. Coronavirus is deadlier to the elderly than normal flu, but that is just an argument for protecting the elderly or those with health problems that would make them more susceptible to the virus.

    The rest of the population only needed moderate social distancing and (if possible) work from home instructions.

    This is what Florida did and they have 1/8 the death total of New York State despite having 2 million more people.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    September 3, 2020 at 5:29 PM

    • Extreme lockdown measures like wearing masks out in public (unless one lives in a dense urban area) was stupid on scientific grounds – wearing masks outside is ridiculous since you can’t get the virus outside of large metro areas simply by walking past other people.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      September 3, 2020 at 5:32 PM

    • Florida has a lower death total because the first epidemic in the US happened in NYC. After the rest of the rest of the country saw what was happening in NYC, they started social distancing. And finally testing became available.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      September 3, 2020 at 8:38 PM

    • After the rest of the rest of the country saw what was happening in NYC, they started social distancing. And finally testing became available.

      So what else is there to do besides moderate social distancing with medium to low risk populations, and keeping high risk populations secure?

      The Undiscovered Jew

      September 3, 2020 at 9:56 PM

    • It is impossible to protect the elderly if there is widespread community spread among the young. If the workers at nursing homes or hospitals are infected, they will infect others. The problem that northeast U.S. had was that all of those government through that nursing homes and retirement center were better at standard precautions and infection control they they were.

      What is forgotten today is that one of the first events in Covid-19 was the nursing home in Washington State where the CDC and the State government was very slow to respond. Everyone assume that it was just a bad nursing home when in reality, the nursing home showed how hard it is to contain infections.

      superdestroyer

      September 4, 2020 at 9:30 AM

    • “This is what Florida did and they have 1/8 the death total of New York State despite having 2 million more people.”

      With a far higher percentage of elderly in Florida’s population may I add.

      Mike Street Station

      September 5, 2020 at 7:45 AM

  9. Now that Biden is walking down his promise of locking down the country, are you reconsidering your support? What’s the point of destroying the country to save it from the virus if Biden is basically going to be Trump on the virus?

    Mike Street Station

    September 3, 2020 at 5:32 PM

    • There is a prediction that the U.S. could be back to 3k deaths a day sometime in December due to people’s failure to behave. However, if the death rates starts to go back up, people will take measures to protect themselves and the economy will slow down whether local government take any action. Most local areas will just have to crack down on the truthers who will be the superspreaders in the future.

      superdestroyer

      September 4, 2020 at 9:36 AM

    • If Trump was actually implementing the agenda he ran on in 2016, you’d have an argument. He isn’t. It’s just pomp and symbolism. #DropTable2020

      Anonymous

      September 4, 2020 at 9:58 PM

      • I’m unclear how that’s an argument for Biden 2020. However I’m open to you making your case.

        Mike Street Station

        September 5, 2020 at 7:46 AM

  10. Other possible causes of excess deaths:
    –suicides, murders and general unhealthiness from being locked up (w/ your family or by yourself–both are bad)
    –cancer, heart attacks etc from delaying medical appointments due to lock-down/Covid-derived fear of doctors’ offices (many people I know cancelled appointments)

    I think lockdowns are more deadly than Covid, but that’s just a guess. Remember 7th grade science class: correlation is not causation.

    Amused Observer

    September 3, 2020 at 8:10 PM

    • I think it’s just the opposite. Minus Covid-19, there are FEWER deaths this year because people are safer at home, plus fewer deaths from other viruses. Also, there’s evidence that non-essential medical care harms as much as it helps so it’s a wash.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      September 3, 2020 at 8:39 PM

      • Aren’t the murder numbers higher than last year?

        Half Canadian

        September 3, 2020 at 10:01 PM

      • This pandemic basically puts a PAUSE on SWPL activities, a RESET for proles, and OFF to NAMs. Now, whether this will make a better America in the near future (as hinted by Cuomo during the height of the pandemic), it all depends on proles. But you should not have high hopes!

        Ok, what, who's this again?

        September 4, 2020 at 12:13 AM

      • “Aren’t the murder numbers higher than last year?”

        Sure, but murders pale in comparison to things like traffic deaths. My personal anecdotal observations are that “normal” a-hole behavior for most people in the NYC metro didn’t get back up to full steam until maybe the last two weeks.

        MoreSigmasThanYou

        September 4, 2020 at 2:43 AM

      • Actually traffic deaths are down due to people staying at home. There is little data on the increase in suicides and given that about 40k people kill themselves each year and there was little uptick during the financial crisis of 2008-9, increased suicides are tiny compared to the 1k deaths a day from Covid-19.

        superdestroyer

        September 4, 2020 at 9:34 AM

  11. OT:

    Lion, any thoughts on the revelation that Jacob Blake’s father is an anti-Semite? Biden met with him today.

    Stan Adams

    September 3, 2020 at 10:45 PM

  12. LOTB,

    You should speculate on what happens to the Covid-19 response if President Trump is re-elected. I suspect that all of the push for vaccine and treatments will be dropped and on the theoretical day that President Trump is announced as the winner that the federal response to Covid-19 will in. In a second Trump Administration, the only motivation will be the looting of the government. The biggest variable will be if the Democrats win control of the Senate. The second biggest variable is whether the Democrats are going to be willing to close the government to prevent some of President Trump’s actions.

    superdestroyer

    September 4, 2020 at 4:07 PM

    • Lion has already stated that Trump has zero chance of winning, so from his POV, this probably seems irrelevant.

      Mike Street Station

      September 5, 2020 at 7:51 AM

  13. More Finger Lakes sh!t for ya:

    Cornell being the most prestigious university within NYS has recently seen 39 Covid-19 cases stemming from it athletes who went on a gathering without masks and social distancing. The school is on yellow alert for a serious lock down. The administrators are deciding to close the school and opt for remote instruction.

    Then another school, a prolish SUNY institution located in a city that reminds you of onenitis and not far from the Finger Lakes are dealing with a student outbreak of 300 cases.

    https://nypost.com/2020/09/04/cornell-university-reports-covid-19-cluster-of-nearly-40-cases/

    Ok, what, who's this again?

    September 4, 2020 at 6:12 PM

    • My bad: Cornell isn’t the most prestigious university in NYS. It’s Columbia, which ranks higher than all the Ivies, except HYP (Harvard, Yale, Princeton).

      Ok, what, who's this again?

      September 5, 2020 at 9:43 AM

      • HYP are the top 3 Ivies.
        Columbia and Penn are the middle 2 Ivies.
        Brown, Cornell and Dartmouth are the bottom-ranked Ivies.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        September 5, 2020 at 10:46 AM

      • I believe Columbia ranked higher than Cornell only a few years ago. Columbia is located in Manhattan and it provides immediate things like “immense culture” that isn’t available in a town like Ithaca, which is now being moved to the Hamptons as speculated by you.

        Still, Cornell being an Ivy League is a feat in itself. The founder Ezra Cornell was a prole from agrarian roots who wanted to create a prestigious institution that would rival a Harvard or Yale, whose origins were indeed more “aristocratic” than Cornell.

        Ok, what, who's this again?

        September 5, 2020 at 4:33 PM

      • No offense to you, but if someone was accepted to both U Penn and Cornell and couldn’t decide between the two, I would recommend the school by the scenic Finger Lakes over its counterpart in the heart of NAM infested cheesy steak town. 40% NAM Philly isn’t NYC and we’re not talking about HYP, where top dog status is the only thing that matters.

        Ok, what, who's this again?

        September 5, 2020 at 11:41 PM

    • SUNY Oneonta (or One-Iota, because it’s hard to pronounce with all the n’s), is an epicenter of Covid-19 infections within NYS. It has been determined that over 500 of its students are now infected.

      It’s downtown area looks like a vibrant place.

      Another determinant of what is Upstate NY should be the architecture. What distinguishes most of the Hudson Valley and Upstate NY are the buildings along their Main Streets. The architecture of the Main Streets in Upstate NY tend to sport a very striking, bold, robust and at your face look while those of the Hudson Valley are smaller and softer in appearance.

      Ithaca’s Downtown by the Finger Lakes:

      Here’s your childhood hometown of Troy:

      Troy is located in the Upper Hudson Valley, bordering Upstate. I say it belongs in Upstate, because of its bold architecture.

      In contrast, here is Port Jervis, a Hudson Valley town in the far western end of Orange County:

      Downtown Peekskill in Westchester:

      Beacon:

      Ok, what, who's this again?

      September 6, 2020 at 5:14 PM

  14. How many of those “excess deaths” were self-inflcted? I don’t hate fat people. But I do hate that people are fat. People neglect their health. They eat garbage, don’t exercise and develop serious health problems. Then they want the government to strong-arm others into pay their medical bills. I’d respect them more if they had the guts to steal it themselves. It would be less hypocritical.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/one-man-s-battle-shows-why-covid-19-and-obesity-are-a-toxic-mix/ar-BB18IMXH

    destructure

    September 5, 2020 at 12:54 AM

    • This is why I ‘ve lost 21 lbs since the lockdown began. The problem? I still have about 40 more to go! I’m having no luck exercising (too lethargic) but I’m trying taking Double X vitamins to get more energy. It’s been a few weeks, but I don’t feel a difference yet.

      Maryk (the g-loaded guidette)

      September 5, 2020 at 11:00 PM

      • Why don’t you take a trip to Ithaca, NY where Cornell University is located? It’s a fantastic place to shed some pounds. You can walk up to the hilltop where the campus is situated and then walk back down and take your vitamins while you’re at it. The views of the city and Lake Cayuga are amazing as you are descending down. The only precaution is that the Cornell campus can be intimidating, because it’s a huge sprawl and you can get lost easily. Ask for directions. A shop employee whose storefront is by the Cornell trail told me “good luck” when I went into a shop to ask for directions for the campus.

        Ithacan natives are slimmer than the average Manhattanite. It’s almost unbelievable.

        The smarter and independent minded city folks most probably have settled somewhere in the Finger Lakes region, while the sheepish types are following the crowd into the Hamptons or the Hudson Valley/Catskills region amid the pandemic. I know this, because a local “guido” wine dealer who sells his stuff in the city told me so and I believe him.

        Ok, what, who's this again?

        September 6, 2020 at 9:09 PM

      • MaryK — That’s great! My family has “lean genes” while my wife’s has “chubby genes”. But even I’ve found it harder to maintain my weight the older I’ve gotten. I’ve gained a few times and struggled to take it off as well. You should feel great about what you’ve lost so far and view the rest as a challenge not a problem. 1-2 pounds per week is actually a very good rate. If you lose faster then you’re losing muscle instead of fat.

        Remember that 70% of what you look like is what you eat not what you do. So the key to weight loss is diet not exercise. Control your weight with not only how much you eat but what you eat as well. Some people can lose the weight simply by cutting out all the garbage. And some some high-fiber foods are so filling that they actually help people eat less.

        For example, studies show that oatmeal is so filling that people who eat a bowl for breakfast actually eat fewer calories for lunch. So much so that they end up eating fewer calories than if they’d skipped breakfast altogether! Beans are another good one to eat for weight loss. Another secret is to fight cravings by eating something high in fiber like an apple, carrot or plain unsalted, unbuttered popcorn. I bought an inexpensive air popper ($20) just for that. And if you eat something high-fiber 20-30 minutes before a meal then you’ll eat a lot fewer calories during the meal.

        Exercise is important, too. But it’s more for cardiovascular and muscle tone than weight loss.

        Great work and stay with it! 🙂

        PS: Sorry for the lecture. But I get really stoked when it comes to health.

        destructure

        September 7, 2020 at 1:27 AM

      • Thanks for the suggestiions, JS/OK,what, whoever. Not so sure I have the stamina to climb a hill, but I’m grateful at you for not taking a potshot at my weight! Incidentally, I know two Cornell graduates. One a guido from the class of 1980, and another a Jewish/guido hybrid who became a doctor.

        Maryk (the g-loaded guidette)

        September 7, 2020 at 10:37 PM

  15. who cares? most of these people were only a few months away from death anyway and didn’t significantly contribute to the economy.

    Ramdam

    September 7, 2020 at 10:28 AM


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