Lion of the Blogosphere

Lion was dead-on right about predicted Covid-19 deaths

On August 24, I wrote:

We keep getting worse and worse at social distancing, we are sending kids back to school, a new wave of cases before we get a vaccine seems kind of inevitable. I predict between 400,000 and 800,000 U.S. deaths from Covid-19 before the pandemic is ended with a vaccine.

We have now passed 400,000 officially tallied deaths (although excess deaths are higher than that so one can argue that the real number of deaths from Covid-19 is higher), so my prediction is proven true.

Let’s review some comments I received to that post in August.

“jg” wrote:

Thank you for sticking to a quite high 400k+ US additional death prediction, which I expect will fail.

Sorry, I was right, you were wrong.

“destructure” wrote

Why do you have to be so negative? Do you suffer depression or something?

So it’s mental illness to accurately predict the future? The world needs more mentally ill people.

“Seingalt” wrote:

Lion i think you completely lost the plot. Have you noticed that in countries such as Italy the virus is killing almost no one and the intensive care units are empty?

As I pointed out back then, Italy was benefitting from stricter enforced social distancing than we were in the United States.

Also, there were a lot of comments about Cuomo. Trump supporters HATE Cuomo because Cuomo was extremely good at communicating about the pandemic and thus was widely lauded, while Trump sucked at everything to do about the pandemic. I’ll repeat what I said before:

Trump supporters think Covid-19 is a lot of bullshit. Except for when Cuomo required nursing homes to take back medically stable Covid-19 patients. In that one, and only one, scenario, Covid-19 is a Very Serious Disease.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

January 21, 2021 at 12:13 PM

39 Responses

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  1. I followed you closely, you were right about everything except how quickly the stock market would recover and them some following all the money printing… I’m still too heavily in cash, now what?

    Goffus

    January 21, 2021 at 12:25 PM

    • My biggest failure in predictions.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      January 21, 2021 at 12:54 PM

      • Not like anyone ever made money in the stock market. Being right on the Internet is where it’s at.

        FWIW one of my biggest PredictIt wins ever was betting on a recession in 2020 in early February. I was like Richard Burr except no one cares cause I’m just some blog commenter, not a senator.

        Jokah Macpherson

        January 21, 2021 at 8:50 PM

    • A buddy of mine poured money in after the initial crash. He said, “This will be either the smartest thing I’ve ever done, or the dumbest.”

      His bet paid off handsomely, but he knows he’s not a genius. It’s amusing how Republicans will oppose higher taxes because they took “risks.”

      Vince

      January 25, 2021 at 5:22 PM

  2. Now we get to compare Trump to those who claimed that they could do better. I predict Biden does worse on COVID-19.

    Biden will also be worse on immigration, foreign policy, taxes, judges, racial division, economy, and everything else. He is already worse.

    Roger

    January 21, 2021 at 1:26 PM

    • No one could do worse on Covid-19 then Trump.

      Biden will also do a lot better on immigration in the sense that he will do a lot better at getting the Deep State to enact his policies, which will be bad policies.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      January 22, 2021 at 8:52 AM

      • Masks are useless you need a true respirator, either half face or a full one. It’s very rare to have consisent seal on your N95 mask for even an hour, count that in minutes when speaking and that is when it fits your face. Respirators are 100 % better.
        Also, the IFR in the US/EU is about 0,4 % – not 0,7 %, it reaches those 0,7 % figures only in places with ~ 7 %+ of very ill and over 80+ like in Bergamo, pretty clear that 60 % of NYC had it in march/april/may

        BAP

        January 25, 2021 at 9:26 AM

    • No, you can’t compare it. Because Trump was in a position to have gotten the pandemic under control when it was just starting out, whereas Biden has to deal with the virus after Trump failed to get it under control. It’s not the same situation. Trump’s failures weren’t just in the past few months, they were in the whole past 12 months in handling the pandemic from the very beginning.
      We know that other countries have contained the virus much better, and they did it by doing things Trump opposed, namely lockdowns, face masks and travel restrictions/quarantining. It’s hard to imagine many of the frontrunners for the 2016 presidential election doing a worse job than Trump/

      Brett

      January 24, 2021 at 5:56 PM

  3. Do you think if Trump told everyone to take Covid-19 precautions then our number of deaths wouldn’t be so dire?

    It’s really up to the state and local bureaucrats who are the ones overseeing their prole and NAM populations to tell them what to do. You even had a few Republican governors who thought face coverings were optional and lock downs were useless and upon learning about the dire death numbers for their respective state, they decided to change course.

    Ok, what, who's this again?

    January 21, 2021 at 2:07 PM

    • There’s any number of things Trump could have done personally to have made a huge difference, at the very least not convincing millions of his supports that it was just a ‘bad flu’ that didn’t need to be taken seriously.

      Brett

      January 24, 2021 at 5:58 PM

  4. Vaccination does not seem to produce strong effect. Data from Israel indicates that Pfizer faked their vaccine effectiveness numbers. The first vaccination does not produce much defense. The second vaccination increases antibodies ~10 times on top of the first, but we know already that the vaccination is 10+ less effective against new strains. So, we are pretty much where we were, except all this distancing and masks make life unbearable. For normal people. Mentally ill people are probably having a blast. Anyway, in the end, we see that Covid-19 and reaction to it are bullshit.

    My 2¢

    January 21, 2021 at 3:34 PM

    • There is nothing bullshit about 400k. Look at how the Trumpist want to make a big deal out of 4k increase in homicides in 2020 while claiming that 400k deaths from Covid are irrelevant.

      superdestroyer

      January 22, 2021 at 9:46 AM

    • Nonsense, 1/3 reduction in infections just 14 days after the 1st dose, the vaccine is highly effective, observable drop in death numbers in late february/early march because of the 25 day gap between infections and death + vaccination lag.

      BAP

      January 23, 2021 at 11:29 AM

    • “So, we are pretty much where we were, except all this distancing and masks make life unbearable. For normal people. Mentally ill people are probably having a blast. Anyway, in the end, we see that Covid-19 and reaction to it are bullshit.”

      400,000 deaths (AND COUNTING) isn’t “bullshit”, and you seem to believe that this is as worse as it was ever going to be, but without social distancing and other restrictions it would almost certainly have been much higher. Australia took social distancing, travel restrictions/quarantines and face masks seriously and it basically eliminated the virus from the worst hit state. It didn’t need to be anywhere near this bad. But since Trump and Americans generally refused to take it seriously to begin with, or even once it was clear things were really bad, we get the worst of both worlds in that we still have/need social distancing and lockdowns, but also have enormous numbers of people dying.

      Maybe due to its enormous size (geography and population) and its culture, America could never have done as well as other countries, but it definitely could have done a lot better than it has done if it weren’t for Trump.

      Brett

      January 24, 2021 at 5:51 PM

  5. It seems like you kind of hate Trump/the alt-right/your blog commenters now. Is that true?

    ack-acking

    January 21, 2021 at 4:15 PM

    • Yes.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      January 22, 2021 at 8:54 AM

      • Lion, you have a treacherous streak in you. I’ve been disappointed in Trump too, so I wont take a bullet for him anymore, but I’ll vote for him in 2024, unless there is someone better.

        Yakov

        January 23, 2021 at 8:37 PM

      • But you must love our new First Lady Jill Biden. I just found out that she is part guido. Her father’s last name “Iaccobo was anglicized to “Jacobs.” She’s half Sicilian. Will the Lion view her any differently now?

        Maryk (the g-loaded guidette)

        January 25, 2021 at 6:05 PM

      • Jill Biden is married twice so that’s prole. She also has a PhD in Educational Leadership. That signals a degree in proledom when you look at her career in education which centers around proles and not intellectual SWPL types.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jill_Biden

        Ok, what, who's this again?

        January 26, 2021 at 10:18 AM

    • It was often said that the proles loved Trump because he himself was prole, or as prole as you can get for a billionaire (on paper). Thanks to the January 6th fiasco, it’s those same proles who have now made the Trump name toxic, leading to the ruination of his business empire. Barron won’t have anything to inherit in a few years.

      Brendan

      January 22, 2021 at 2:25 PM

      • Stop using “prole” unironically. The majority of the electorate are “proles” in the true Marxian sense of the word. When Lion uses it, he really means “icky” whites.

        Looch

        January 25, 2021 at 7:17 PM

      • Proles are both.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        January 26, 2021 at 9:07 AM

      • Proles are both when you meant to say that Trump and Biden are both proles and currently both presidents depending on whom you ask.

        Ok, what, who's this again?

        January 26, 2021 at 10:21 AM

  6. I guess we all know who is going to get blamed for it now.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EsOvNMoUYAA2z0A?format=jpg&name=medium

    So predictable..

    MikeCA

    January 21, 2021 at 8:23 PM

  7. I’d really like to know why Mexicans in the US have a high death rate from This Disease Thing, especially at younger ages. It is especially pronounced in Los Angeles and in the border area of Texas. What little I’ve read usually mentions that Mexicans are more likely to live in crowded conditions and work in jobs that can’t be done remotely. Well sure, but that would go to their likelihood of catching This Disease Thing, not the lethality of cases.
    Thinking about it logically, Mexicans should have a *lower* death rate than whites, given their famously long life expectancies (the “Hispanic Paradox”) and their general physical robustness.

    Peter

    ironrailsironweights

    January 22, 2021 at 10:01 AM

    • Look at the obesity rates. Obesity is a major risk factor in Covid mortality.

      destructure

      January 24, 2021 at 8:46 AM

    • Mortality is impacted by total viral load. You can’t just say that everyone who tests positive should have the same mortality after controlling for underlying health. If you’re exposed to more of the virus, you will on average have a more severe infection.

      Brett

      January 24, 2021 at 5:44 PM

  8. Another blog comment: “Trump turned the Corona from what should have been a godsend for the anti-immigration, anti-globalization forces MAGA was purported to represent into a gigantic victory for the globalist Left.”

    It is not a victory for the “globalist left”, but for those leftists that support powers such as China, which handled the pandemic exceptionally.

    Latias

    January 22, 2021 at 11:32 AM

  9. “We have now passed 400,000 officially tallied deaths…”

    and all I got was this lousy t-shirt.

    destructure

    January 23, 2021 at 3:40 PM

  10. Also, there were a lot of comments about Cuomo.

    Mickey Kaus gives Cuomo a left-handed compliment:

    MEH 0910

    January 23, 2021 at 7:36 PM

  11. Sweden has lower coronavirus death rate normalized by population (1,062 per million) than the US (1,244 per million), so this proves that the whole thing (both Covid and the response we had in the US) are bullshit.

    My 2¢

    January 24, 2021 at 3:54 AM

  12. What a difference 8 days (and an inauguration) makes…. It makes sense if you realize that lockdowns are not about health but about destroying the current economy so that a new digital economy can take it’s place. Biden is all on board with that….

    cliff arroyo

    January 24, 2021 at 4:06 AM

  13. Biden 10/15/20: “We’re eight months into this pandemic, and Donald Trump still doesn’t have a plan to get this virus under control. I do.”

    Biden 1/22/21: “There’s nothing we can do to change the trajectory of the pandemic in the next several months.”

    What do you like about Biden’s plan for fighting covid compared to Trump, by the way?
    I skimmed through the “National Strategy for the COVID-19 Response..” pdf, but it’s just full of goals and I didn’t see anything special there.
    At least Biden himself doesn’t seem to believe in his plan changing the situation too much.

    cannotwest

    January 24, 2021 at 11:38 AM

    • Biden has instituted new travel bans and is speeding up vaccine distribution which Trump fucked up.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      January 26, 2021 at 9:02 AM

  14. You were dead-on, indeed.

    Meanwhile, right-wingers still claim COVID is like the flu and lockdowns are the problem. They deserve all the bad things said about them and to not be in charge for a very long time. F#cking idiots.

    Maciano

    January 25, 2021 at 8:26 AM

  15. “So it’s mental illness to accurately predict the future?”

    Anyone who thinks they accurately predicted the death toll a year ago is mentally ill. You didn’t “predict” anything. You just pulled a number out of your butt.

    destructure

    January 25, 2021 at 8:41 AM

    • In August I correctly predicted the number dead based on the trajectory of the pandemic and assumptions about human behavior and the failure of Trump to do anything to help.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      January 26, 2021 at 9:06 AM

      • How can you claim you were “right” when you moved the goal posts from 400,000 to 800,000? It doesn’t appear you have much faith in Biden’s ability to get this under control after all!

        destructure

        January 26, 2021 at 11:19 AM

      • I didn’t move anything. In August I said there would be between 400,000 and 800,000 deaths before the pandemic is ended by a vaccine. YOU said I was depressed or mentally ill because the estimate was TOO HIGH, but now you are saying the estimate is too low? WTF is your point?

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        January 26, 2021 at 3:32 PM


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