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Trump will lose

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I have been predicting a Trump loss for a year, but it looks even bleaker for Trump than a year ago.

To summarize:

1. Trump supporters are disproportionately old. People who voted for Trump in 2016 have died off since then (my prole uncle unfortunately among that number). Millennials who came of voting age since 2016 are anti-Trump by a wide margin.

2. More non-white immigrant citizens since 2016, they will disproportionately vote for Biden.

3. Can you I imagine anyone who voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 voting for Trump in 2020? I can’t. OK, so there are a small number who probably will do that, but the number of 2016 Trump voters who will not vote for Trump again is a lot larger. It doesn’t matter that the vast majority of people who voted for Trump in 2016 will vote for him again; if 6% jump to Biden, Trump loses.

4. Trump’s big selling point a year ago was that the economy was doing great. The economy is now the worst economy since the Great Depression. Sure, it’s not Trump’s fault that there’s a pandemic, but it is most certainly Trump’s fault that the United States response to the pandemic has been the worst of any developed country. But regardless of fault, history has shown that the current president benefits from a good economy and gets voted out of office because of a bad economy, regardless of fault.

5. Trump’s horrible handling of the pandemic means that his own words will be used against him in highly effective negative campaign ads. We haven’t seen these ads yet, but they are coming very soon.

6. You would have thought that BLM riots would be a big opportunity for Trump to regain popularity as a voice of common sense and law and order and exposing Democrats for being crazily to the left of mainstream America, but Trump managed to blow that opportunity.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

July 2, 2020 at 11:34 AM

Posted in Politics

Vanity Fair interview of Tucker Carlson

Read the interview at Vanity Fair.

It is explained that on Saturday, March 7th, Tucker Carlson had a private meeting with Trump to warn him that the coronavirus was serious. Although Trump still didn’t take it seriously for another week after that.

Back on October 3, 2019, I wrote “Most conservative news, whether it’s on Fox or the internet, is prole and anti-intellectual. (Tucker Carlson possibly excepted, the few times I watched he seemed a cut above the rest of Fox News).” So not surprising to me that Tucker Carlson was the only guy at Fox News who wasn’t a moron about the virus.

Also, note the last seven words of the same blog post: “Trump is very bad at being President.” That wasn’t such a big deal back when the country didn’t have a crisis, and life could go on as normal while the President made dumb tweets, but being a bad President is a really huge problem when there’s a crisis and we need someone who is good at being President. Trump fails over and over again to step up to the plate and act presidential.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 18, 2020 at 11:57 AM

Posted in Politics

Joe Biden’s coronavirus speech

He said exactly the right things. Total opposite of Trump.

It doesn’t matter that he’s reading from a teleprompter. What matters is that the people who work for Biden know what to do and Biden knows to just let them run things and be the spokesperson.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 12, 2020 at 1:51 PM

Posted in Politics

VP advice for Biden

What I always say about VPs is that rarely does anyone for FOR a ticket because of the VP, but a bad running mate can turn voters AWAY. Republicans have an especially bad track record in picking VPs. Dan Quayle and Paul Ryan were both bad picks, and of course the worse VP pick in the history of the United States was Sarah Palin. Geraldine Ferraro wasn’t an especially good pick, that that was a doomed ticket anyway. In retrospect, Tim Kaine was a bad pick for Clinton. He didn’t really have that much gravitas, despite being a white man of prime gravitas age and having a law degree from Harvard. Someone from the Rustbelt would have been so much better.

The most important qualification of VP is that they project an aura of gravitas so that they give the impression that they are ready to take over in case there’s a national emergency and the President is dead. This is doubly important in the year of the virus and with Biden’s age.

If Biden HAS to pick a woman (and I don’t see why he does, it’s not like liberal women are going to vote for Trump if he picks a man), Amy Klobuchar would be a better pick than Kamala Harris. No one hates Amy Klobuchar, no one is going to vote against the ticket because of her. Being from the Midwest, she might even give a small boost in key Rustbelt states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania that Trump won in 2016.

If Biden were to pick a man… well that’s the problem, where are the nationally well-known moderate men in the Democratic Party? The bench is pretty bare. Maybe there’s some governor out there who would be a good pick. For example, Mike Pence, the former governor of Indiana, turned out to be an excellent pick for Trump. Of course, there’s always Buttigieg, who would add sexual-orientation diversity to the ticket, although every single President until now has somehow managed to win the office without having any sexual-orientation diversity.

I don’t know much about Bob Casey, Jr., Senator from Pennsylvania, but he seems pretty popular in his home state, and if he helps carry that key swing state, that would make the difference in the election. But he’s anti-abortion, and that will never fly in the Democratic Party, even though is voting record is sort of pro-choice, so probably not. But on paper, Casey does seem like the best guy to defeat Trump.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 5, 2020 at 3:14 PM

Posted in Politics

Warren drops out, it’s now just a Biden vs. Sanders race

Biden is now easily favored to win the nomination. Biden already has more delegates than Sanders because of his dominant Super Tuesday showing, and the rest of the calendar is not favorable for Sanders. The highly populated east-coast states like New York, Florida, Rustbelt states, basically everywhere west of the Rocky Mountains, are all leaning towards Biden.

Commenters keep talking about whether or not Biden is going senile. I may have made a mistake in buying into this. It may be like the silly rumors from 2016 about Hillary Clinton’s bad health. Well Hillary Clinton is still alive. Biden has yet to make the campaign-ending gaffe, so he only needs to keep avoiding that for another seven months and then he wins. Even if he’s slowing down, the decline isn’t happening all that fast. He sounded pretty confident, and even presidential, on Tuesday night when he made a speech. The lesson here is not to get suckered into believing everything you read in the right-wing echo chamber.

To demonstrate my belief that Biden will win the election in 2020, I bought 100 Biden shares on

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 5, 2020 at 11:52 AM

Posted in Politics

Trump vs. Biden vs. Trump vs. Clinton

In 2016, polls showed Clinton leading Trump by 3.1 points, and in the final voting she won by 2.1 points. So the polls were pretty accurate, despite perception otherwise. What was not forseen (at least not by most of the MSM or even Clinton’s own campaign people, although I wrote several posts about it) was Trump’s strength in key Rustbelt states.

Current Trump vs. Biden polling has Biden leading by 5.1 points, so he’s polling stronger than Clinton did. (At least that’s how well he’s doing right now; of course things can change in the future. But they can change to being even more in Biden’s favor in the future.)

We can also be sure that Biden’s campaign people won’t ignore Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Biden is especially popular in those states, he has a long history of connecting with the older prole whites who traditionally voted Democratic but voted for Trump in 2016.

Also, with the MSM firmly against Trump, they will now start talking about Biden like he’s the most amazing politician in U.S. history. Only people who watch Fox News or go out of their way to seek out the online right-wing echo chamber will have a different impression of Biden.

Anecdotally, does anyone know of a single person who voted for Clinton in 2016 who would vote for Trump in 2020 over Biden? I don’t know of any such person.

So it looks like a clear path for Biden becoming the next President.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 4, 2020 at 3:00 PM

Posted in Politics

Bloomberg drops out and endorses Biden

Biden now has a wide open path to winning the nomination.

Notice how Democrats are able to cooperate a lot better than Republicans. Republican leaders (who didn’t want Trump to win the nomination) refused to cooperate, but the Democrats are now all in cooperation to support Biden because they don’t want Sanders to win the nomination.

I think this is pretty good for the country. Because, as I’ve been saying for a long time, Trump can’t win, so it’s better for a moderate non-divisive person like Biden to become president.

I hope that Biden doesn’t pick someone stupid for his VP.

The stock market is up on this news, forgetting about the virus for a day.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 4, 2020 at 11:26 AM

Posted in Politics

As I predicted, big night for Biden

Earlier today, I wrote “Thus I predict Biden will have a big night and will go on to win the Democratic nomination.”

Commenters, of course, disagreed with me. B.T.D.T (who was also totally wrong about the stock market) wrote:

You are susceptible to media hype. Bernie is still going to win Super Tuesday …

But, in fact, Biden is having a big night as I predicted.

Biden has 54% in Virginia.

In Massachusetts, where Warren and Bernie were supposed to be duking it out for first place, instead Biden is in first place at 33% to 26% for Sanders (but with only 15% of the vote counted). Warren will probably drop out after tonight, coming in third place in her home state.

In Maine, which was supposed to be a big win for Sanders according to polls, instead Biden is tied with Sanders at 18% of the vote counted.

I never believed that Bloomberg would be able to buy his way to the nomination, and it looks like I was right about that. Not a good night for Bloomberg.

* * *

Overnight, Biden pulled ahead and took Texas. Yes, a HUGE night for Biden.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 3, 2020 at 9:55 PM

Posted in Politics

Super Tuesday: Looks like it will be Biden’s night

Wow, things sure have changed in just three days. After Biden’s crushing defeat of Sanders in South Carolina, and Buttigieg and Klobuchar both dropping out of the race and endorsing Biden, suddenly Biden has risen from the ashes.

I think the virus situation changes the race. People want a proven leader in a time of crisis, and as the former Vice President, Biden is seen as more of a proven leader than anyone else. Except maybe for Bloomberg who did lead New York City, but nearly everyone in the Democratic Party resents him for trying to buy his way in, and nearly every poll in every Super Tuesday state has Biden polling ahead of Bloomberg, and those polls predate the Buttigieg and Klobuchar endorsements.

Thus I predict Biden will have a big night and will go on to win the Democratic nomination. I sold all of my Bernie shares at while they’re still above what I paid for them, and of course I lost everything on my Buttigieg shares, so I only came out of that with a slight profit.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 3, 2020 at 10:48 AM

Posted in Politics

Check out the SC exit poll

Going into this primary, I assumed that Sanders would win the white vote and Biden would win the black vote, but that’s not what happened. Biden beat Bernie solidly among white voters, 33% to 23%, and trounced him 61% to 17% with black voters.

The pre-election polling significantly underpredicted how well Biden actually did by quite a bit. The polling average showed Biden with a 15.4 point lead over Sanders (because of the last-minute polls trending towards Biden), but the actual results have Biden beating Sanders by 28.8 points.

I wonder if maybe Biden has benefited from the coronavirus. Perhaps in times of national crisis, people want someone in the White House who has been there before. Unfortunately, the exit poll didn’t have a question about the virus.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 29, 2020 at 11:36 PM

Posted in Politics

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