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Hurricane Michael update

with 8 comments

2:29 PM Tuesday

Predicted to strengthen to a strong category 3 before making landfall, which means the wind damage will be much more extensive than we had with Florence which weakened before making landfall.

Landfall late tomorrow afternoon, near Panama City, Florida. 200,000 people live in the Panama City metropolitan area, which is nothing compared to the six million who live in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach metropolitan area. One day a major hurricane will land there and there will be massive economic damage.

9:28 AM Wednesday

Will make landfall shortly after 2 PM, east of Panama City, as a Category 4.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

October 9, 2018 at EDT pm

Posted in Weather

Here’s a good reason to own a car

SJW types often expound upon how great it would be if no one owned cars. But what happens when you have to evacuate a city because a hurricane is approaching? As pointed out by this Wired article, it sucks to be in that situation without a car.

In good weather, lack of access to car can mean lack of access to jobs and education. But it can be a matter of life and death when local governments assume residents can get themselves out of harm’s way by hitting the road. As New Orleans’ Times-Picayune reported about the area’s emergency management plans in in July 2005, a month before Hurricane Katrina killed at least 1,800 people: “City, state and federal emergency officials are preparing to give the poorest of New Orleans’ poor a historically blunt message: In the event of a major hurricane, you’re on your own.”

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

September 14, 2018 at EDT am

Posted in Weather

Florence down to a Category 1

Storm continues to weaken faster than predicted.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

September 13, 2018 at EDT pm

Posted in Weather

Florence weakening

Already down to a Category 2.

I told you this was being over-hyped.

However, the current forecast has the eye passing two miles south of historic downtown Wilmington, which is sort of a worst-case path.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

September 12, 2018 at EDT pm

Posted in Weather

Florence update

Florence will weaken to a Category 3 as it approaches North Carolina, and will hang off the coast for an entire day. It will weaken to a Category 1 before making landfall.

Storm surge plus days of heavy rain will no doubt bring a lot of flooding to southern North Carolina, but I don’t see this being a mega-destructive hurricane like Katrina, or last year’s Harvey. There aren’t any major cities in the path of Florence. The biggest city in the area is Wilmington with a population of approximately 118,000. Sucks for people who live there and own property in flood-prone areas or along the coast (buying beach-area property without hurricane insurance is a dumb idea), but we’ve seen a lot worse than what Florence is likely to do.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

September 12, 2018 at EDT am

Posted in Weather

Florence, only a 4

Last year, Hurricane Irma reached, unofficially, Category 6, and even Hurricane Maria was a strong Category 5, so a Category 4 hurricane isn’t that exciting anymore.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

September 11, 2018 at EDT am

Posted in Weather

Al Gore says cold weather is caused by global warming

How do we know that warm weather isn’t caused by global cooling?

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

January 5, 2018 at EDT am

Posted in Weather

9+ inches and still snowing

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Locations in Staten Island and Queens and even in Manhattan have already reported more than 9 inches, and it’s still snowing.

So my forecast of 10-12 inches looks more right than official weather forecasts predicting lesser amounts of snow.

Islip Airport in Long Island already had 13.6 inches at 1:00 PM, so my 12-18″ prediction for Long Island was also correct.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

January 4, 2018 at EDT pm

Posted in Weather

Lion winter weather observation

Snow is sticking much more than usual in Manhattan because of cold temperatures. 23 degrees in Manhattan, unusually cold for snowstorms in these parts. Main streets are snow covered even though maybe only 2 inches have fallen so far.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

January 4, 2018 at EDT am

Posted in Weather

Lion weather forecast 1/04 00Z

The latest run of the NAM is drier than the previous run. 8 to 10 inches for NYC. Snow will start around 4 AM, and end around 3 PM. Heaviest snow between 9 AM and 12 PM.

* * *

The 00Z GFS is still showing a little bit less snow than the NAM, but I have faith in the NAM!

* * *

On online weather forums, some posters think the actual position of the storm is west of what the models predicted, so that could indicate more snow for everyone, maybe 10-12″ in NYC.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

January 3, 2018 at EDT pm

Posted in Weather

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