Lion of the Blogosphere

Archive for the ‘Weather’ Category

Bill de Blasio should read my blog

with 19 comments

NY Times says

Leaders in New York and New Jersey said they were caught off guard by the ferocity of the storm after early forecasts predicted a light dusting.

The day before the storm I wrote:

The NAM* predicts 6 inches of snow for New York City and more than a foot for Pennsylvania and upstate New York.

Final result: National Weather Service reports exactly 6 inches of snow fell in Central Park.

Why can’t this moron mayor just read my blog for information?

* * *

*The NAM is the National Mesoscale model, which along with the GFS (Global Forecasting System), is one of the two major computer weather forecasting models run by the National Weather Service.

There are other models out there, some think the European Model is better, but information from the GFS and the NAM runs are easily available to the public for free, plus there’s the fact that the NAM was specifically designed for short-term forecasting in the United States. The NAM used to be considered kind of a joke, but the National Weather Service has improved it a lot, and with its big success with yesterday’s storm, I say to look to the NAM first for winter weather forecasting.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

November 16, 2018 at EST pm

Posted in New York City, Weather

The NAM was right

with 22 comments

Yesterday I said that the NAM predicted snow while the GFS predicted rain.

Looks like the NAM was right, heavy snow falling in NYC. According to the National Weather Service, it is coming down at a rate of 1 to 2 inches per hour. Must be global cooling!

HOWEVER, nothing is sticking to the streets in Manhattan at this time. (So I guess there’s a philosophical question here. Were there really several inches of snow if all of the snow melted after it landed on the ground? I would further say that you don’t see the ground in Manhattan become white with snow unless the temperature is in the 20s when the snow is falling.)

4:27 PM update: Snow is starting to stick to the roads and sidewalks in Manhattan!

4:51 PM update: It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas!

5:55 PM update: there’s some serious snow on the ground in Manhattan!

FINAL UPDATE: Officially (according to the National Weather Service) there were 6 inches of snow in Central Park, but I didn’t see that much on the streets. The temperature is currently 39, so it should be melting.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

November 15, 2018 at EST pm

Posted in Weather

Winter may be coming

with 10 comments

The NAM predicts 6 inches of snow for New York City and more than a foot for Pennsylvania and upstate New York.

But the GFS has only some mixing in New York City, and only 6 inches in places where the NAM predicts a foot.

If the NAM forecast pans out, it will be the biggest snowstorm of my lifetime to happen so early in November (from a New York City perspective).

It must be the lack of sunspots.

Even though the NAM had a better track record for winter storms last year than the GFS, Bayesian logic would lead me to bet that the GFS is more likely to be correct.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

November 14, 2018 at EST pm

Posted in Weather

Hurricane Michael update

2:29 PM Tuesday

Predicted to strengthen to a strong category 3 before making landfall, which means the wind damage will be much more extensive than we had with Florence which weakened before making landfall.

Landfall late tomorrow afternoon, near Panama City, Florida. 200,000 people live in the Panama City metropolitan area, which is nothing compared to the six million who live in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach metropolitan area. One day a major hurricane will land there and there will be massive economic damage.

9:28 AM Wednesday

Will make landfall shortly after 2 PM, east of Panama City, as a Category 4.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

October 9, 2018 at EST pm

Posted in Weather

Here’s a good reason to own a car

SJW types often expound upon how great it would be if no one owned cars. But what happens when you have to evacuate a city because a hurricane is approaching? As pointed out by this Wired article, it sucks to be in that situation without a car.

In good weather, lack of access to car can mean lack of access to jobs and education. But it can be a matter of life and death when local governments assume residents can get themselves out of harm’s way by hitting the road. As New Orleans’ Times-Picayune reported about the area’s emergency management plans in in July 2005, a month before Hurricane Katrina killed at least 1,800 people: “City, state and federal emergency officials are preparing to give the poorest of New Orleans’ poor a historically blunt message: In the event of a major hurricane, you’re on your own.”

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

September 14, 2018 at EST am

Posted in Weather

Florence down to a Category 1

Storm continues to weaken faster than predicted.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

September 13, 2018 at EST pm

Posted in Weather

Florence weakening

Already down to a Category 2.

I told you this was being over-hyped.

However, the current forecast has the eye passing two miles south of historic downtown Wilmington, which is sort of a worst-case path.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

September 12, 2018 at EST pm

Posted in Weather

Florence update

Florence will weaken to a Category 3 as it approaches North Carolina, and will hang off the coast for an entire day. It will weaken to a Category 1 before making landfall.

Storm surge plus days of heavy rain will no doubt bring a lot of flooding to southern North Carolina, but I don’t see this being a mega-destructive hurricane like Katrina, or last year’s Harvey. There aren’t any major cities in the path of Florence. The biggest city in the area is Wilmington with a population of approximately 118,000. Sucks for people who live there and own property in flood-prone areas or along the coast (buying beach-area property without hurricane insurance is a dumb idea), but we’ve seen a lot worse than what Florence is likely to do.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

September 12, 2018 at EST am

Posted in Weather

Florence, only a 4

Last year, Hurricane Irma reached, unofficially, Category 6, and even Hurricane Maria was a strong Category 5, so a Category 4 hurricane isn’t that exciting anymore.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

September 11, 2018 at EST am

Posted in Weather

Al Gore says cold weather is caused by global warming

How do we know that warm weather isn’t caused by global cooling?

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

January 5, 2018 at EST am

Posted in Weather

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