The end of history illusion
This is a must-read article for my younger readers. John Tierney from the NY Times reports on the end of history illusion.
When we remember our past selves, they seem quite different. We know how much our personalities and tastes have changed over the years. But when we look ahead, somehow we expect ourselves to stay the same, a team of psychologists said Thursday, describing research they conducted of people’s self-perceptions.
They called this phenomenon the “end of history illusion,” in which people tend to “underestimate how much they will change in the future.” According to their research, which involved more than 19,000 people ages 18 to 68, the illusion persists from teenage years into retirement.
“Middle-aged people — like me — often look back on our teenage selves with some mixture of amusement and chagrin,” said one of the authors, Daniel T. Gilbert, a psychologist at Harvard. “What we never seem to realize is that our future selves will look back and think the very same thing about us. At every age we think we’re having the last laugh, and at every age we’re wrong.”
The two examples Tierney gives of bad decisions people typically make when they are young that they sometimes come to regret are tattoos and choice of spouse.
This speaks to the benefit of arranged marriages. Another blogger brought this topic up a few months ago. Arranged marriages make a lot of sense given the end of history illusion, because parents, who are the age their children will eventually be, have a better idea of what sort of spouse their children would eventually want their children have themselves.
Every parent should keep a copy of this article and show it to their children when they are about to do something stupid.
Lion of the Blogosphere 
Why not have grandparents arrange marriages then?
The older the better, right?
Also, how can parents foresee how their kids will change in the future, when they can’t even foresee their own futures?
AsianDude
January 3, 2013 at 11:55 PM
You may not know exactly how they will change, but you know that they will change. And there are certain changes that are predictable – kids will go through puberty and become more independent, they will get jobs (hopefully), then they will get older and party less, maybe have kids with the changes that entails, etc.
aisaac
January 4, 2013 at 10:19 AM
One can use an inductive argument.
“Now you are seventeen you don’t have the same desires and beliefs that you had when you were fifteen. And when you were fifteen your desires and beliefs were different from those you had at thirteen.
Similarly when you are nineteen your desires and beliefs will not be the same as they are now.”
martin_uk
January 4, 2013 at 5:35 PM
So are you finally going to accept an arranged marriage?
You are a good earner- there has to be some bubbies around looking to set you up with and unsoiled girl from the old country who will make you cabbage soup.
OK, even if I am being faceious- how long would it take you get get set up in a marriage? Does that network still exist in NYC? I hear is that it is still alive and well among the Sephardics, but what do I know from.
Lion of the Turambar
January 4, 2013 at 6:43 AM
Arranged marriages might well help for spouses who are under 25, which is the age that developmental psychology teaches is the end of “emotional adolecense.” People who marry (for the first time) at least that old are a LOT less likely to divorce.
Later marriage is one of the obvious consequences of longer lifespans and women’s educational needs. If we can figure out how to keep them fertile, it’s a very good thing that people are marrying older.
WMarkW
January 4, 2013 at 7:17 AM
My emotional adolescence is still going strong. South Park is much smarter than any politician.
Nicolai Yezhov
January 5, 2013 at 8:22 AM
Arranged marriages might be slightly better than what we have now, but they still don’t address the fundamental problem: We’re polyamorous animals being forced into a monogamous lifestyle. Check out the books Sex at Dawn by Christopher Ryan and Cacilda Jethá, and also The Monogamy Gap by Eric Anderson. The logic of their argument seems is quite convincing.
William
January 4, 2013 at 1:50 PM
“Brigham Young University is known for emphasizing a ‘marriage culture’. To many, BYU is viewed as a “meat market,” a hotbed for Mormon dating and marriage. Due to the many factors such as Latter-day Saint beliefs and University encouragement, “old-fashioned” courtship and marriage are very important aspects of BYU’s social scene…Compared to most universities, the marriage rate at BYU is much higher. In 2005, 22% of the student population was married. In 2005, 51% of BYU’s graduating class were married.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Student_life_at_Brigham_Young_University#Dating_and_Marriage
The Mormons know what they’re doing.
aki (@DSGNTD_PLYR)
January 4, 2013 at 5:53 PM
Every parent should keep a copy of this article and show it to their children when they are about to do something stupid.
For example, when a girl reaches her teens her mother could sit down with her and explain why it would be a bad idea to do that horrible thing that all the other girls are doing, and … oh wait, Mom’s undoubtedly done that thing herself. Never mind.
Peter
ironrailsironweights
January 4, 2013 at 8:34 PM
Certainly an interesting topic, but I’m not sure – over the past ten years, I’ve changed a very great deal in ways that I would consider to fall under the category of “maturity”, but not much in ways that fall under “tastes” or “general personality”.
Samson J.
January 4, 2013 at 9:33 PM
From what I see of American marriages and parents, I would think that arranged marriages would be implemented under the rubric of misery loves company
S_McCoy
January 5, 2013 at 11:51 AM
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