Archive for April 2016
Indiana polls
One weird outlier poll shoes that Cruz beats Trump by 16 points, and all other polls show that Trump beats Cruz. I would discard the outlier and give Trump the advantage, but it’s going to be a much closer race than the Northeast Super Tuesday contests. Unlike those contests, I don’t think that Indiana is a state where Trump will outperform the polls.
Carly Fiorina
Until now, I thought that Cruz was running a very smart campaign. Announcing Carly Fiorina as his VP was a pretty boneheaded move on several fronts.
1. It rules out an alliance with Kasich as his running mate.
2. Geraldine Ferraro? Sarah Palin? History has shown that women running mates don’t work well in the United States.
3. Fiorina is a psychopath.
4. She only had a brief period of time where she registered on the polls before her support collapsed. I don’t see her bringing in any voters who otherwise would have voted for Trump or Kasich.
5. Look at that face. Would anyone vote for that?
6. She ran HP into the ground.
7. People who care about the sex of the vice president and want a woman in that position wouldn’t vote for Cruz anyway, even if Susan B. Anthony herself became reincarnated and was willing to be his running mate.
Thanks to this bad move on Cruz’s part, I now confidently predict that Trump will win Indiana. (Plus Trump’s surprisingly extra-strong showing in the Northeast Super Tuesday and polls in Indiana showing Trump with a good lead.)
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By the way, it looks like Trump swept all of Maryland’s delegates. As you know, I thought Kasich had a chance of winning one CD, but Trump even beat Kasich in Montgomery County where rich people who work in DC live, although I was correct that Kasich was stronger in that county than in the rest of the state. Trump only beat Kasich by 4 percentage points in Montgomery Country, but statewide he beat Kasich by a huge 31 percentage points.
I wish I had bet more on Trump
There was a contract at PredictIt that Trump would get at least 50% in every state tonight. I thought he had no chance at getting 50% in Maryland. Looks like I was wrong about that.
Trump is even beating Kasich in Montgomery County, Maryland, where I thought Kasich would win.
Even I underpredicted Trump.
Tonight bodes very well for Indiana, Trump will be going in there with strong momentum.
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Based on tonight’s romp by Trump, Trump leading in polls in Indiana, and Trump have a very commanding lead over Cruz in California (Trump at 49% in two most recent polls), it’s likely that Trump wins more than 1237 delegates.
Slow blogging
Maybe I’ll be able to get back to regular blogging later this week.
Is the Big Mac actually the small Mac?
Commenter Tom writes:
The Big Mac is great, and probably one of the best achievements of American cuisine. I wish they made a much bigger version though, keeping all the proportions the same. It’s delicious, but it’s too small now compared to the sizes of burgers now. It might have been big when it first came out, but it’s like a small snack now.
iRobot called me today
No, they don’t want to hire me as their chief strategist. They just want my proxy vote.
I told the guy I’m going to mail in the proxy form today, but I didn’t tell him that I’m going to vote for the directors that the outside investors are trying to install. Hopefully they will help to increase shareholder value.
Manafort assures GOP leaders that Trump will change his persona
Seems to me that only good things have happened since Trump brought on Paul Manafort to be his “chief strategist.” Corey Lewandowski is technically still the “campaign manager,” but it appears that in the new Trump campaign hierarchy the “chief strategist” is the higher level position, making Lewandowski unhappy. But you can’t argue with success, can you? This shows you something about Trump’s management style. He had a guy on his team who wasn’t the best, so he hired someone better.
According to the Washington Post:
Trump’s chief strategist Paul Manafort told members of the Republican National Committee in a closed-door briefing here Thursday afternoon that his candidate has been playing a “part” on the campaign trail, but is starting to pivot toward presenting a more businesslike and presidential “persona.”
“He gets it,” Manafort told RNC members. “The part that he’s been playing is now evolving into the part that you’ve been expecting. The negatives will come down, the image is going to change, but ‘Crooked Hillary’ is still going to be ‘Crooked Hillary.’”
I hope that Manafort is correct that Trump is going to start acting more presidential now. Trump needs to stop being the reality-TV guy. In the fourth quarter of a football game, the team that’s ahead needs to run out the clock and not throw Hail Mary passes.
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It also seems to me that Trump is finally opening up his wallet and spending more money. The Trump campaign has demonstrated that money spent on advertising is a huge waste, but that a campaign does indeed need to spend a lot of money on ground game, inside game, and that sort of stuff, and Trump has been lacking in those things.
First flight of new Japanese stealth fighter
Pretty cool. And not surprising, Japan is at least as technologically advanced as the United States, they’ve just chosen not to build a lot of military hardware. I wouldn’t be surprised if it works better than American fighters.
Prince should have eaten meat
From an interview way back:
VT: How, when and why did you and Mayte become vegetarians?
The Artist: I’ve not eaten red meat for about 10 years now. Mayte for a lot longer. I’ve always had a preference for all things vegetarian but not until recently did I find out how good they were for you (in a physical sense).
VT: How far have you taken your vegetarianism?
The Artist: We don’t eat anything with parents. Complete vegans–both of us!
VT: Many people become vegetarian out of concern for their health, but I know that’s not what motivated you and Mayte. Can you tell us how your beliefs affected this decision?
The Artist: Thou shalt not kill means just that! We don’t have to kill things to survive. In fact, the complete opposite happens: If you kill, you will die.
VT: That sounds pretty dire. Speaking of dire: Some people think vegetarianism is all about denying yourself pleasure. Have you found this to be true? You don’t strike me as the kind of guy who thinks sensual pleasure is negative.
The Artist: Mayte and I get no pleasure from playing Russian roulette with food. Eating anything ridden with bacteria raises your chances for disease. Being sick is not pleasurable.
That Prince had the flu appears to cover for an opiate overdose. Heroin?
Looks like Prince’s vegan died didn’t prevent him from getting sick and dying as he claimed it would. It’s much healthier to eat McDonalds and not abuse drugs than it is to be a vegan drug-abuser.
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Thanks to commenter Tarl for the info that 46% of reported food poisonings are caused by leafy green vegetables.
Suicide rate highest in 30 years
Middle-aged whites hit hardest. (Actually American Indians are hit hardest, but whites are very close behind.) The suicide rate actually declined for black men.
The New York Times article plays down the part about whites being hit hardest, but plays up the part about women being hit hardest (even though men still kill themselves 3.6 times as frequently as women).
Lion of the Blogosphere 