Lion of the Blogosphere

Lion correctly predicted that Christie would drop out

with 14 comments

Before the NH results I wrote:

Christie: His good debate performance hurt Rubio more than it helped himself. He will drop out on Wednesday.

Today it’s reported by ABC News that he’s planning to suspend his campaign and “a statement announcing the suspension could come as soon as early this afternoon, according to a source briefed on Christie’s plans” (although as of 3:13 PM it hasn’t been officially announced).

* * *

Carly Fiorina also has announced that she’s suspending her campaign. I’m not surprised, but also would not have been surprised if she stayed in because I never understood what motivated her campaign in the first place.

* * *

And Christie officially ended his campaign at 4 PM.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 10, 2016 at 3:13 pm

Posted in Politics

Why is Fred Barnes called “the Beadle”?

with 6 comments

The answer is so obscure it’s not even explained in his Wikipedia page.

John McLaughlin called him “Freddy the Beadle Barnes” on his political discussion show The McLaughlin Group.

John McLaughlin was a Jesuit priest before he was a political commentator, and “beadle” is a term used by Jesuits to refer to the novice who helps the Novice Director run the community. Fred actually hated the nickname, but he was very intimidated by John.

* * *

Commenter “steve” (not to be confused with Steve Sailer) provided a link to this hilarious McLaughlin Group parody.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 10, 2016 at 2:20 pm

Posted in News, Television

Guidette misbehaving

with 11 comments

A guidette from Long Island is charged with public sexual indecency for having sex on a giant Ferris wheel with some guy she met in Vegas on a trip celebrating her 21st birthday.

The guidette is already a single mother. I guess it’s this sort of behavior which led to that outcome.

She’s in some serious trouble, because PSE is a felony in Nevada (which is ironically prudish for a state where prostitution is legal).

http://www.reviewjournal.com/news/las-vegas/amorous-couples-ride-the-high-roller-ends-felony-arrest
Chloe Scordianos: Photos of Woman Who ‘Had Sex’ in Public in Las Vegas
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/lovebirds-accused-public-sex-las-vegas-ferris-wheel-article-1.2526454

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 10, 2016 at 2:05 pm

Posted in Law

Why do blacks support Hillary and not Bernie?

with 23 comments

(1) Blacks are actually very conservative, which I keep saying, so they are not attracted to the more liberal candidate. And no, this does not mean they are going to become Republican Ted Cruz supporters, they will vote for the party that gives them stuff (like affirmative action and various welfare programs) and that they can boss around.

(2) Blacks are low-information voters, so they are biased in favor of the well-known candidate. They are not going to put in the effort to learn about Bernie.

(3) They vote for whom black leaders tell them to, and black leaders are lined up behind Hillary (because the Clintons are way better as schmoozing them).

(4) As noted by many commenters, a nerdy old white guy is not especially attractive to black voters. An old white woman isn’t all that attractive to them either, but Hillary has the first three points strongly in her favor.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 10, 2016 at 1:30 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

Freddy “the Beadle” Barnes says

with 16 comments

“The message to Republican leaders from New Hampshire is this: you’d better start figuring out how to help Donald Trump win the general election because he’s probably going to be your presidential nominee.” Donald Trump in Driver’s Seat on Way to Presidential Nomination

* * *

I don’t think they are going to capitulate to Trump until after he sweeps Super Tuesday, when it will become more obviously apparent that the only alternative with any polling strength is second-place Ted Cruz whom the GOPe hates more than Trump.

* * *

MORE ABOUT SOUTH CAROLINA

In 2008, McCain had a slim victory over Huckabee, 33.2% to 29.9%.

In 2012, Newt beat Romney 40.4% to 27.8%.

Trump, given the state of current polls and momentum from NH with no clear challenger, looks likely to do substantially better in SC then the previous two Republican nominees, winning the state with a good lead over Cruz. This will set Trump up to sweep Super Tuesday.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 10, 2016 at 10:35 am

Posted in Politics

South Carolina polls

with 4 comments

The polls date back to mid-January when Trump had a commanding 36% which is higher than his recent 31% in NH which he beat by 4 percentage points.

With momentum from NH plus his ability to outperform the polls, I expect Trump to capture 40% or more of the vote in South Carolina. Cruz will probably finish in second and Bush in third. I predict third place for Bush because Kasich’s moderate persona won’t play well in South Carolina and he also lacks financing. Rubio’s robotic glitch plus his poor performance in NH will keep him behind Bush. The real battle may be for fourth place. Will Kasich or Rubio win 4th place? It’s too close to call.

* * *

Thinking about this some more, it’s not a completely outside possibility that Kasich can win 3rd place in SC behind Cruz. He could probably do that with only 13% of the vote, which is not an impossibly high amount of the vote. It depends on how much momentum he pulls out of NH. But if I had to bet even money, I’d bet on Bush to finish third.

If Kasich does pull off a surprise third place, he will become the establishment pick, especially if the vote falls Kasich, then Bush, then Rubio. (A fourth place finish for Rubio behind Kasich but ahead of Bush could be taken to indicate that he has recovered from his debate glitch and that he’s a stronger candidate than Bush. On the other hand, fourth place behind Bush means that the debate glitch killed him and that Kasich was a one-state wonder.)

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 10, 2016 at 8:41 am

Posted in Politics

Wrap-up: Great night for Trump!

with 28 comments

Only 81% of precincts have reported, so this could change overnight.

But so far, Trump has 34.8% of the vote, outperforming every single poll. Trump has demonstrated that he can turn out more voters then the poll numbers show.

This also shows that the internet polls were more accurate than the live-telephone-interview polls, because the internet polls had Trump as high as 34%.

This is also a great night for Trump because no alternative to Trump has emerged. Cruz had a very mediocre night with only 11.5% of the vote. That was in the lower side of his range of recent polls. No breakout for Cruz.

The Kasich breakout, with Rubio looking to come in 5th place, puts the GOPe in a huge bind. The GOPe was banking on their Boy Wonder Rubio coming in second and becoming the anointed establishment candidate. But then he had that robotic debate moment.

Christie looks like he’s going to drop out, but Kasich, Bush and Rubio are going to stay in, and the GOPe has no authority to tell any of them they have to drop out. As the second place winner, Kasich is certainly not dropping out. And Rubio will stay in on the basis of coming very close to Trump in his third-place finish in Iowa, and pretty close behind Bush in New Hampshire. And Bush isn’t dropping out because he hates Rubio and his campaign will believe that Kasich can’t repeat his performance in any other state, and certainly not in the southern states. But I wouldn’t write off Kasich so quickly. He has a lot of momentum now. (That is, I wouldn’t write him off for beating Rubio and Bush in future primaries. He’s not going to be able to beat Trump.)

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 10, 2016 at 12:10 am

Posted in Politics

Trump’s victory speech

with 14 comments

That was an incredibly great speech. The best campaign oratory I’ve ever heard. It was full of energy, it made Trump sound like a winner, and he painted a picture of how great America is going to be after he becomes president.

Trump gets a big boost in SC just on the basis of that speech which a lot of people probably watched.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 9, 2016 at 10:12 pm

Posted in Politics

Kasich in second as predicted by The Lion!

with 20 comments

Kasich has now been declared the winner for second place. Who could have predicted that?

Before the debate on Saturday, I wrote:

I think there’s a strong possibility that he could be totally destroyed in tonight’s debate. Rubio just isn’t that smart, and he relies on memorized sound bites and anecdotes to get him through debates and interviews. If he gets thrown into a position where he can’t fall back on his sound bites, we may see a complete collapse.

And who will benefit if that happens? We may be surprised to see John Kasich win second place in New Hampshire. Well some people will be surprised, but I won’t because I’m predicting the possibility.

Why do I think Kasich and not Bush or Christie will benefit from Rubio’s collapse? Because everyone who is not a Republican insider doesn’t want another president Bush, and because Jeb’s humiliating collapse in the polls from the front-runner to a guy who got 3% in Iowa makes him look like a loser. No one wants to vote for a loser.

Not Christie because Christie appeals to proles, and Trump has won the hearts and minds of the proles.

Kasich, on the other hand, has been positioning himself as the only adult in a room full of children. Whereas Bush’s low showing in the polls brands him a loser, Kasich’s equivalent showing makes him a winner because a few months ago he was this nobody that no one even considered as having a realistic chance of winning a single primary anywhere.

Why doesn’t some campaign hire me, given my superior predicting skills compared to the mainstream?

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 9, 2016 at 9:27 pm

Posted in Politics

NH live blogging

with 22 comments

8:12 So far it looks like Trump is overperforming his polls and Kasich is in second place.

If this holds, it’s the best possible outcome for Trump. There’s no one for the GOPe to rally around and Trump has a big win which will give him momentum going into South Carolina.

9:06 Talking heads on CBSN keep talking about Trump using the word “pussy,” except that they don’t see “pussy” on internet TV.

9:16 Looks like the results with Trump overperforming his polls and Kasich’s second place will hold, because these results are consistent in both urban and rural areas of the state.

9:20 The race for third and fourth place is very close. If Rubio winds up in 5th place, even though it’s a close 5th place, it will presage the collapse of his campaign.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 9, 2016 at 8:12 pm

Posted in Politics

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