Lion of the Blogosphere

Reparations for blacks

with 17 comments

I would approve of reparations if it means no more white guilt, no more pandering to blacks on issues like Ferguson, no more affirmative action everywhere, etc.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 12, 2016 at 2:17 pm

Posted in Politics

New South Carolina Republican Poll!

with 8 comments

Link here.

Note that this was an IVR poll, and Trump does better on these types of polls as compared to live-interviewer polls.

This poll has a very strict definition of a likely primary voter, which has tended to cause Trump to have lower poll numbers. So this poll may underestimate Trump’s polling strength if he attracts a lot of supporters to the polls who have not previously voted in a Republican primary.

The results are:

Trump 36.3
Cruz 19.6
Rubio 14.6
Bush 10.9
Kasich 8.7
Carson 4.7

I think there are some significant takeaways here.

The most obvious is that Trump is at 36.3%, which is consistent with SC polls taken in January. Cruz at 19.6% is also consistent with polls taken in January. SC is a state that’s friendly to a committed anti-abortion hardcore-conservative type of candidate like Cruz. Remember that Newt won this state in 2012 and that Huckabee came in a very close second 2008, so this means that Trump, the frontrunner and New Hampshire winner is outperforming both McCain in 2008 and Romney in 2012. If this is how the numbers break after actual voting, it’s hard to see how Trump can lose the nomination.

The battle for third place is interesting. It looks like Rubio was not hurt that much by his robotic debate glitch and his poor performance in New Hampshire.

Kasich has moved up substantially here since the January polls, but not enough to break out of fifth place.

Carson has sunk. He is now seen as a loser and his supporters are moving on to other candidates. Very few people want to vote for a loser.

It’s also important to note that 15.7% said they would vote for Trump as their second-choice candidate. Only Cruz (at 17.0%) and Rubio (at 18.5%) scored higher here and only by a small amount, so this demonstrates that Trump’s future support is NOT limited to just the people who are already voting for him as their first choice. As other candidates drop out of the race, Trump will pick up an even share of the leftover votes. Also, as normally happens after initial victories, social proof causes the front-runner’s support to increase, and no one has presented me with a believable explanation for why this won’t benefit Trump just as it has benefited every other candidate who has done well in early primaries.

Unless something really significant happens during the debate on Saturday or next week, I don’t see how Trump comes out as anything but a big winner in South Carolina. And by a winner, I mean not just having the highest vote total, but beating the second-place candidate by a large margin and bringing a lot of momentum and social proof to Super Tuesday.

* * *

Another interesting question. Assuming the real votes turn out like this (which is likely), will anyone drop out? Cruz certainly won’t drop out, and Rubio won’t because he can say that he’s the only candidate besides Trump and Cruz who came in third place in two states.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 12, 2016 at 1:52 pm

Posted in Politics

Democratic debate!

with 54 comments

Question about why so many black men are in prison. Lots of HBD-denialism here.

* * *

Well that was boring. Two clueless liberals arguing about who’s more liberal and who kissed Obama’s ass more. But one gets the impression that Bernie actually believes most of what he says while Hillary will say anything to get elected.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 11, 2016 at 8:55 pm

Posted in Politics

Liberal MSM conventional wisdom and the GOPe

with 70 comments

Liberal Nicholas Kristof writes in NY Times op-ed:

In part, I think, Republican leaders brought this on themselves. Over the decades they pried open a Pandora’s box, a toxic politics of fear and resentment, sometimes brewed with a tinge of racial animus, and they could never satisfy the unrealistic expectations that they nurtured among supporters.

. . .

The Republican establishment profited from the insinuations that Obama is a Muslim, that he’s anti-American, that his health care plan would lead to “death panels.”

. . .

This is a theme of a smart new book by E.J. Dionne Jr., “Why the Right Went Wrong,” who argues that Republican leaders repeatedly made unrealistic pledges — of smaller government, preservation of bygone values and an end to demographic change. “The history of contemporary American conservatism is a story of disappointment and betrayal,” he writes, and that helps explain the disenchantment with the Republican establishment.

This is the liberal MSM conventional wisdom. Zillions of liberal MSM political commentators other than Kristof have written similar things.

Just as I predicted that a Romney loss would cause the GOPe to accept the conventional wisdom that they need to be more pro-Hispanic to win elections (a strategy they failed to follow through on because of too much opposition to it from the more hardcore conservative elements), I predict that after the GOPe capitulates to Trump as the nominee, they will accept this liberal MSM conventional wisdom about why they lost control of the party.

* * *

Once again, to be clear, I don’t agree with Kristof, but I predict that GOPe will come to agree with him, because the GOPe always capitulates to the liberal world-view after losing.

* * *

And by “capitulate,” I mean that’s when the GOPe finally stops believing that Trump is magically going to disappear and that Rubio, Bush or Kasich will be nominated. Once they come to believe that Trump is the nominee and they can’t stop it, that’s when they will need an explanation for what went wrong, and they will accept the Kristof explanation.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 11, 2016 at 11:09 am

Posted in Politics

Lion correctly predicted that Christie would drop out

with 102 comments

Before the NH results I wrote:

Christie: His good debate performance hurt Rubio more than it helped himself. He will drop out on Wednesday.

Today it’s reported by ABC News that he’s planning to suspend his campaign and “a statement announcing the suspension could come as soon as early this afternoon, according to a source briefed on Christie’s plans” (although as of 3:13 PM it hasn’t been officially announced).

* * *

Carly Fiorina also has announced that she’s suspending her campaign. I’m not surprised, but also would not have been surprised if she stayed in because I never understood what motivated her campaign in the first place.

* * *

And Christie officially ended his campaign at 4 PM.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 10, 2016 at 3:13 pm

Posted in Politics

Why is Fred Barnes called “the Beadle”?

with 13 comments

The answer is so obscure it’s not even explained in his Wikipedia page.

John McLaughlin called him “Freddy the Beadle Barnes” on his political discussion show The McLaughlin Group.

John McLaughlin was a Jesuit priest before he was a political commentator, and “beadle” is a term used by Jesuits to refer to the novice who helps the Novice Director run the community. Fred actually hated the nickname, but he was very intimidated by John.

* * *

Commenter “steve” (not to be confused with Steve Sailer) provided a link to this hilarious McLaughlin Group parody.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 10, 2016 at 2:20 pm

Posted in News, Television

Guidette misbehaving

with 32 comments

A guidette from Long Island is charged with public sexual indecency for having sex on a giant Ferris wheel with some guy she met in Vegas on a trip celebrating her 21st birthday.

The guidette is already a single mother. I guess it’s this sort of behavior which led to that outcome.

She’s in some serious trouble, because PSE is a felony in Nevada (which is ironically prudish for a state where prostitution is legal).

http://www.reviewjournal.com/news/las-vegas/amorous-couples-ride-the-high-roller-ends-felony-arrest
Chloe Scordianos: Photos of Woman Who ‘Had Sex’ in Public in Las Vegas
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/lovebirds-accused-public-sex-las-vegas-ferris-wheel-article-1.2526454

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 10, 2016 at 2:05 pm

Posted in Law

Why do blacks support Hillary and not Bernie?

with 40 comments

(1) Blacks are actually very conservative, which I keep saying, so they are not attracted to the more liberal candidate. And no, this does not mean they are going to become Republican Ted Cruz supporters, they will vote for the party that gives them stuff (like affirmative action and various welfare programs) and that they can boss around.

(2) Blacks are low-information voters, so they are biased in favor of the well-known candidate. They are not going to put in the effort to learn about Bernie.

(3) They vote for whom black leaders tell them to, and black leaders are lined up behind Hillary (because the Clintons are way better as schmoozing them).

(4) As noted by many commenters, a nerdy old white guy is not especially attractive to black voters. An old white woman isn’t all that attractive to them either, but Hillary has the first three points strongly in her favor.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 10, 2016 at 1:30 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

Freddy “the Beadle” Barnes says

with 17 comments

“The message to Republican leaders from New Hampshire is this: you’d better start figuring out how to help Donald Trump win the general election because he’s probably going to be your presidential nominee.” Donald Trump in Driver’s Seat on Way to Presidential Nomination

* * *

I don’t think they are going to capitulate to Trump until after he sweeps Super Tuesday, when it will become more obviously apparent that the only alternative with any polling strength is second-place Ted Cruz whom the GOPe hates more than Trump.

* * *

MORE ABOUT SOUTH CAROLINA

In 2008, McCain had a slim victory over Huckabee, 33.2% to 29.9%.

In 2012, Newt beat Romney 40.4% to 27.8%.

Trump, given the state of current polls and momentum from NH with no clear challenger, looks likely to do substantially better in SC then the previous two Republican nominees, winning the state with a good lead over Cruz. This will set Trump up to sweep Super Tuesday.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 10, 2016 at 10:35 am

Posted in Politics

South Carolina polls

with 5 comments

The polls date back to mid-January when Trump had a commanding 36% which is higher than his recent 31% in NH which he beat by 4 percentage points.

With momentum from NH plus his ability to outperform the polls, I expect Trump to capture 40% or more of the vote in South Carolina. Cruz will probably finish in second and Bush in third. I predict third place for Bush because Kasich’s moderate persona won’t play well in South Carolina and he also lacks financing. Rubio’s robotic glitch plus his poor performance in NH will keep him behind Bush. The real battle may be for fourth place. Will Kasich or Rubio win 4th place? It’s too close to call.

* * *

Thinking about this some more, it’s not a completely outside possibility that Kasich can win 3rd place in SC behind Cruz. He could probably do that with only 13% of the vote, which is not an impossibly high amount of the vote. It depends on how much momentum he pulls out of NH. But if I had to bet even money, I’d bet on Bush to finish third.

If Kasich does pull off a surprise third place, he will become the establishment pick, especially if the vote falls Kasich, then Bush, then Rubio. (A fourth place finish for Rubio behind Kasich but ahead of Bush could be taken to indicate that he has recovered from his debate glitch and that he’s a stronger candidate than Bush. On the other hand, fourth place behind Bush means that the debate glitch killed him and that Kasich was a one-state wonder.)

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 10, 2016 at 8:41 am

Posted in Politics

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