Trump odds at Predictit
There’s an arbitrage opportunity here, but not one that I wish to pursue given the large investment necessary to obtain a small payoff, plus Predictit steals 10% of your profits from winning bets.
If I wanted to bet against Trump on this, the bet that Trump won’t finish his term has the most favorable odds because there are at least four ways in which he wouldn’t finish his term:
1. Conviction
2. Resignation
3. Fatal heart attack
4. Other (use your imagination)
However, I don’t care to bet on this because I feel that the odds are about right.
* * *
There’s definitely more than a zero percent chance that Trump will either be convicted or forced to resign. Because at least 20 Republican Senators definitely hate him and wish that Pence were president instead. But right now, Republicans seem to be holding together, so it’s more likely than not that Trump will remain in office.
Is that the chance of Republicans not holding together about 16%? Yeah, maybe. I definitely wouldn’t put down $84 to win $16. But if you disagree and think there’s a zero percent chance that Trump will be convicted or forced to resign, then go for it and put down some money.
Lion of the Blogosphere 
Allan Lichtman who predicted both T election and impeachment by 31 december 2019 (since last year !) says election results are too close to call in his predictions …
Bruno
December 19, 2019 at 10:10 AM
Yes, you are right. Maybe a state of anarchy could finish him off. This impeachment by the House just emboldened the far right like Antifa to lash out more violently.
Ok, what, who's this again?
December 19, 2019 at 10:11 AM
Maybe this video is a tell tale sign that the worse has yet to come:
Wait, I thought Stephen Miller was a good ol’ Jewish mensch. He’s a White Supremacist according to this lady who worked with him.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/13/politics/katie-mchugh-stephen-miller/index.html
Can’t make this stuff up!
Ok, what, who's this again?
December 19, 2019 at 1:49 PM
Jews are white. Even Sephardem.
Mrs Stitch
December 19, 2019 at 4:11 PM
“Can’t make this stuff up!”
CNN can!
Still, funny when the Micks (McHugh) get all social justicey. Micks don’t even want to occupy a country with their nearest genetic relatives the English or the Welsh. And Irish constituted no small number of slave holders in the Old South. Plus, Social Justice is such an old school Puritan exercise, ‘The Elect’ and all that Puritan tosh. You know, the people, including Cromwell, who suppressed the Irish?
All these years and were still paying for the Mayflower!
Curle
December 19, 2019 at 5:12 PM
McHugh burned all her bridges with conservatives and is desperate to ingratiate herself to the leftwing media by talking smack about Stephen Miller and Breitbart. It won’t work. All she’s doing is digging her hole deeper. If she were smart she’d stop that nonsense and look for work in another field. She should also think about getting married before she gets any older. You can always tell when someone is under stress. She needs to calm down and get out of the spotlight before she has a breakdown or something.
destructure
December 19, 2019 at 10:19 PM
White people are facing genocide and discrimination and it’s perfectly within the Jewish tradition to side with the underdog.
Trump was treated very unfairly on deserves full Jewish support on these grounds alone.
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/12/12/trumps-support-among-orthodox-jews-has-risen-from-54-to-89/
Yakov
December 20, 2019 at 8:02 AM
Unfortunately for Trump, the Orthodox Jews live in New York and New Jersey, states that are never going to vote for Trump even with an extra ten thousand orthodox Jewish votes.
Is there any presence of Orthodox Jews in Florida? That would be helpful for Trump.
Lion of the Blogosphere
December 20, 2019 at 8:22 AM
Only the Chassids will vote for Trump in droves.
Ok, what, who's this again?
December 20, 2019 at 9:01 AM
Murkaprolestan is the sh!tpits, because burgeoning areas are always filled with NAM niches and they vote majority Democrat. While “no civilization, no mans land” tend to be Republican places with a lot to stupid prolechials.
None of this matters, if you want to live a decent, jubilant life in America, one must have a high paying job so they can afford a residence away from riff raff and the sticks n stones (unless you are into agriculture, and most people aren’t interested)
Ok, what, who's this again?
December 20, 2019 at 9:58 AM
(unless you are into agriculture, and most people aren’t interested)
I may be the only person here who cares about agriculture as a topic. The way I see it, most agriculture is both super low-margin, and unpredictable. It’s one of the very worst fields you can go into if you want to be prosperous and comfortable.
The only possibly good thing to do in agriculture is to own an ag-business with a very high cost of entry. For example, a large vineyard/winery which can attract tourists. If anyone wants to comment socioeconomic status of ag-business, please feel free.
MoreSigmasThanYou
December 20, 2019 at 11:23 AM
Owning a vineyard is upper-class, owning a corn farm is middle class.
Lion of the Blogosphere
December 20, 2019 at 12:34 PM
The problem is that, though Steve Sailer is wrong about Jews still holding grudges about not being allowed into certain country clubs, in the narrative of modern liberal society, which the majority of people (including Jews) subscribe to, whites are not the underdog; in fact, we still have way too much power and are still horrifically oppressing NAMs. So anyone wanting to side with the underdog is going to side with NAMs and see whites as the bad guys.
Hermes
December 20, 2019 at 11:23 AM
That was the case with Trayvon Martin/George Zimmerman. Everyone in the fakestream media just assumed that Zimmerman was a white Jewish name and therefore he was guilty. The narrative didn’t change when it was revealed that he was actually Hispanic.
Lion of the Blogosphere
December 20, 2019 at 12:35 PM
Many Orthodox Jews spend their retirement years in Florida.
Yakov
December 20, 2019 at 11:31 AM
‘Only the Chassids will vote for Trump in droves.’
I dont know anyone who voted for Hillary in my circles. Trump scored 98% in my daughter’s class in the modern orthodox high school where she was teaching in 2016. This means that there was only one kid not voting for him.
Yakov
December 20, 2019 at 11:39 AM
This song is about Texas, but the video was filmed 15 miles from where I used to live in Illinois:
Saying that owning a mid-size corn farm is middle class may be a bit generous. Running a corn farm is a capital intensive business, but the cash flow is not good, and generally it makes you and your family the type of people my grandfather used to call “hayseeds”.
MoreSigmasThanYou
December 20, 2019 at 1:15 PM
Once it emerged that Zimmerman was Hispanic, he became a “white Hispanic.” As someone remarked at the time, if the reason George Zimmerman was in the news was that he discovered a cure for cancer, the New York Times wouldn’t have referred to him as a “white Hispanic.”
Also, Hispanics are NAMs and therefore victims themselves, but occupy a lower place in the victim hierarchy than blacks.
Hermes
December 20, 2019 at 6:32 PM
According to the USDA, the average corn farmer will net over $200K this year.
https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/farm-economy/farm-sector-income-finances/farm-business-income/
destructure
December 20, 2019 at 6:33 PM
> most agriculture is both super low-margin, and unpredictable
New Jersey alone is littered with farmers making millions from relatively small holdings. They do blueberries and asparagus and suchlike (not maize/soy/wheat). Many of them don’t even bother with illegal labor and employ actual Americans. Profitable modern farming has become a high IQ managerial profession. When you hear about “family farms are dying” you need to understand that what’s really happening is idiots are being pushed out of growing wheat/soy/milk super inefficiently.
Making money in farming has become a situation where you need to be on top of botany, robotics, futures trading and global macro commodity analysis, and supply chain marketing. Many are becoming rich doing this stuff successfully. This is where your foofoo organic salad greens and nut/berry mixes come from. Often, the land was family land and not used well 50 years ago. It’s now much easier to figure how to use land well, because of information availability.
To any young person with access to family capital I would suggest an agricultural science degree as a highly profitable path. Finance or law would be a relatively poor bet.
bobbybobbob
December 21, 2019 at 1:10 AM
If there is a Senate trial (not a sure thing at this point), there is no way that Trump will be convicted. Not a single Republican House member voted to impeach, and the same result will probably occur in the Senate. Plus, a (futile) vote to convict will be uncomfortable for Democratic senators running for reelection in states that Trump carried. I doubt an impeachment will even get a majority, let alone the two-thirds required by the Constitution for conviction. Some Republican senators may be less than thrilled with Trump, but they’re not willing to commit political suicide in an unlikely attempt to get rid of him.
Black Death
December 19, 2019 at 12:55 PM
I’m only aware of three RINOS who would vote against him — Collins, Murkowski and Romney.
destructure
December 19, 2019 at 3:33 PM
Not sure about that. A month ago I would have agreed with this prediction, but the way the Dems have handled the thing in the House, I wouldn’t be surprised if we get speeches from these three containing harsh criticism of Trump but ultimately “no” votes on impeachment. Collins can’t afford to lose the Republicans in her state, Romney has seen polls showing him far less poplular than Trump in Utah, and I can’t believe Murkowski (up on 2022) is dumb enough to vote to remove given the current political climate.
sj2001
December 19, 2019 at 7:06 PM
Zero Republicans voted to impeach in the house *AND* one Democrat defected to the Republican party over the impeachment vote. The fact that Trump polls above Romney in Utah is like a political miracle.
MoreSigmasThanYou
December 20, 2019 at 3:52 PM
Mitch McConnell is up for re-election in 2020, which means no support for the Never Trumper’s from the guy calling the shots. That makes conviction impossible. If Mitch had been re-elected in 2018, maybe a different story. But without him it can’t be managed.
PerezHBD
December 19, 2019 at 3:06 PM
I agree with this. McConnell’s fortunes are tied with Trump’s.
Mike Street Station
December 21, 2019 at 10:01 AM
This predictit stuff is tiresome. Can’t you come up with something new like astrology err… I meant “kaballah”? Maybe you could swing a chicken around or something.
destructure
December 19, 2019 at 3:35 PM
I’d say keep up the PredictIt. It’s an interesting source, if you understand its shortcomings and biases. More accurate than 99.9% of the talking heads out there.
I didn’t realize Trump was going to win on election night until I checked out PredictIt. The talking heads were saying “It’s starting to look like he might win WI, MI, PA” and my reaction was “Ha, yeah right! PA, are you kidding me? They’re just trying to make the race seem close and interesting for as long as possible, in order to keep us tuned in. I bet the unreported precincts are 100% Dem.”
Then I loaded up PredictIt and saw how his odds had shifted towards near-certainty, and only then did I believe it. Of course, election night is when PredictIt is at its most accurate, as the pay-off is largest and volume is highest.
Wency
December 19, 2019 at 5:30 PM
I’m sure it is more accurate than the talking heads. And the polls for that matter. They’re both little more than propaganda. But if I wanted to read about predictit then I’d go to predictit. What’s next? Baseball stats and sports scores? Booooring. I’d rather read his Star Trek reviews. I’m not knocking his reviews, by the way. I actually enjoyed them.
destructure
December 19, 2019 at 11:43 PM
I too would like to see the return of Star Trek reviews, but if it hadn’t been for Lion’s Predictit posts I wouldn’t have learned that you can buy multiple “no” positions in the same market for no additional investment, so I’m glad about that.
Hermes
December 22, 2019 at 9:38 AM
Ot/ – I realize you don’t cover British politics but this is funny. The following British social media celebrity who has been feted by the Labour Party and has appeared on TV as an opinion maker posted the following video titled ‘ Day 1 of Labour Government’ on Nov. 16.
Labour got shellacked last week losing long time stronghold majority white working class constituencies. I wonder why?
If video doesn’t appear search google for Ash Sarkar & Day 1 of Labour Government.
Curle
December 19, 2019 at 4:39 PM
Ok, try again: Ash Sarkar Day 1 of Labour government. Real video distributed by Labour media figure before election.
Curle
December 19, 2019 at 11:31 PM
I like the first one better.
Amazing the Labs didn’t win with campaign material like that.
IMPORTANT:
Obama’s doctor, David Scheiner, says that Joe Biden is not well. He’s got a lot of issues that can get very bad in the next few years.
If he’s elected, and I have no doubt the MIL wants to install him, we’ll end up with a gay President: Buttercup.
gothamette
December 21, 2019 at 1:00 PM
Your besy payoff is to bett he gets reelected, which is probably around 55/45 and rising.
ROBERT SYKES
December 19, 2019 at 5:35 PM
Seems like there is a lot of money to be made off of the “Sanders will be the nominee” bet. No way that happens, at least nothing like the current price.
Lion of the Turambar
December 19, 2019 at 6:27 PM
lol…all the politicians in congress love trump …if they are paid to love him…or they hate him if paid to hate him…politics in america is a stage play…almost all of these high level politicians are on friendly terms with each other…it’s like pro wrestling–it’s fake!!
newsflash–the Dem politicians WANT trump reelected…that way if the Dems take the senate, but trump gets reelected, then the Dems have a ready-made excuse for not passing the populist legislation they promised in order to get elected…
newsflash–politicians do not want to actually pass the populist legislation they promised in order to get elected…if they did so, they would be persona non grata with the upper class, the CEOs, the big corporations…if you get booted out of office, you wanna get rich…but if you pass populist legislation, your chances of getting rich dwindle..the people who can make a politician rich wouldn’t like it if you pass medicare for all, or a wealth tax, or anti-immigration legislation etc…
so the politicians want trump reelected…the media wants trump reelected…just because some politician or elite journalist says bad things about trump, that does not mean that they really hate trump…they are probably talking to trump on the phone the next day, apologizing…but of course trump understands–it’s all a stage play…just like pro wrestling..
rapping boomer
December 20, 2019 at 2:20 AM
The exchange between Warren and Buttigieg, if not prepared, is a demonstration of unsuspected (by me) very high verbal IQ (employed for superficial brilliance made to impress journalists and average high school teachers). The picture of billionnaires drinking whine in a cave and plotting their candidate is a brilliant metaphore. Buttigieg answer « I am the only one here who is neither billionnaire nor a millionnaire, so that’s the problem with setting purity test you can not past » is really witty.
Even if both arguments are really dumb in terms of pertinence and truth. But only Yang has an articulate discourse. I recognize this comment may sound arrogant but I am French so …
Bruno
December 20, 2019 at 5:43 AM
You sound like a robot.
The SJW
December 20, 2019 at 8:35 AM
You sound like « philosopher » 😊
Bruno
December 21, 2019 at 2:33 AM
All my moneys on mah man Corey Booker!!!! I’ve remortgaged my house!
The SJW
December 20, 2019 at 6:20 AM
oh look Biden is still leading and has been since March…weird
gayactormichaeldouglas
December 20, 2019 at 11:13 AM
This is the only predictit I’m interested in.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/search?query=ginsburg
destructure
December 20, 2019 at 7:07 PM
And all of the “Yes”s add up to more than 100%, another theoretical arbitrage opportunity (but in practice probably not).
Lion of the Blogosphere
December 20, 2019 at 7:41 PM
Not only does Predictit take 10% of your profits on winnings, there is a 5% withdrawal fee when you take your money out – and that is 5% of the total amount being withdrawn, not just 5% of your profit. So if you deposit money, win, and then withdraw it, you are losing money on any shares for which you paid $0.95 or more. At $0.91 per share,if you bet $100 that Trump will not be convicted and win, your profit if you withdraw the money without betting it on another market will be only $3.45.
Hoosier Jim
December 20, 2019 at 9:57 PM
I have long thought that there is a not insignificant chance that Donald Trump suddenly announces he has accomplished everything he set out to do and simply doesnt run again.
This has become increasingly unlikely as he has pushed and created a successful 2020 fundraising machine.
But Trump could use this windfall for ANY political purpose. Let Ivanka use it, fund many swing district house races, senate races etc..
Fund primary challenges to politicians he personally dislikes.
I am not arguing this will happen now – I think he is looking strong for 2020.
But maybe 1% chance?
If Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed, would he get a young bomb thrower on the court, proclaim victory and hit eject?
Paul Rise
December 21, 2019 at 11:20 AM
Delusional. Only loser presidents serve one term. Trump is a narcissist. He will seek and likely win a second term. If he resigns – a huge if – it’s after he wins a second term.
NWS4EVR
December 21, 2019 at 4:31 PM
According to Google, RBG has 6.5 years left to live.
gothamette
December 21, 2019 at 1:02 PM
WaPo, 12/21/19 – 1 in every 4 circuit court judges is now a Trump appointee
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/one-in-every-four-circuit-court-judges-is-now-a-trump-appointee/2019/12/21/d6fa1e98-2336-11ea-bed5-880264cc91a9_story.html
After three years in office, President Trump has remade the federal judiciary, ensuring a conservative tilt for decades and cementing his legacy no matter the outcome of November’s election.
Trump nominees make up 1 in 4 U.S. circuit court judges. Two of his picks sit on the Supreme Court. And this past week, as the House voted to impeach the president, the Republican-led Senate confirmed an additional 13 district court judges. In total, Trump has installed 187 judges to the federal bench…
The 13 circuit courts are the second most powerful in the nation, serving as a last stop for appeals on lower court rulings, unless the case is taken up by the Supreme Court. So far, Trump has appointed 50 judges to circuit court benches. Comparatively, by this point in President Obama’s first term, he had confirmed 25. At the end of his eight years, he had appointed 55 circuit judges.
Trump’s appointments have flipped three circuit courts to majority GOP-appointed judges, including the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 2nd Circuit in New York. The president has also selected younger conservatives for these lifetime appointments, ensuring his impact is felt for many years.
The executor of this aggressive push is Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who is almost singularly focused on reshaping the federal judiciary, twice ramming through Senate rule changes to speed up confirmations over Democrats’ objections.
“Leave no vacancy behind” is his mantra, McConnell has stated publicly. With a 53-to-47 Senate majority, he has been able to fill openings at breakneck speed.
That philosophy did not seem to apply in 2016, when McConnell refused to allow Supreme Court nominee Merrick Garland, Obama’s choice to replace the late justice Antonin Scalia, a confirmation hearing, let alone a vote. McConnell insisted on waiting until after the 2016 election, a gamble that paid off when Trump beat Democrat Hillary Clinton. Trump appointed conservative Justice Neil M. Gorsuch for that seat. McConnell has repeatedly described blocking Garland as one of his greatest achievements…
While Trump has wavered on some conservative policies during his tenure, he has reliably appointed judges in line with conservative ideology.
“I’ve always heard, actually, that when you become President, the most — single most important thing you can do is federal judges,” Trump said at a White House event in November celebrating his “federal judicial confirmation milestones.”…
E. Rekshun
December 22, 2019 at 4:24 PM