Wisconsin results
It looks like Cruz crushed Trump much WORSE than the polls showed. I’ve noticed this effect in many previous contests where polls showed Cruz tied with Trump or ahead. Cruz always seems to beat the polls in those situations. On the other hand, Trump beat the polls by just as big of an amount in Arizona.
As I wrote yesterday, Wisconsin is only 6% black. That explains why Sanders won and Trump lost. That, and midwesterners don’t seem to like Trump very much. I look forward to Trump crushing Cruz in New York.
Lion of the Blogosphere 
Any prole who lives in NYC and votes for Cruz, should relocate to America’s armpit (Texas, where Cruz lives). That would be MaryK and others who feel a certain misery in the Big Apple, and rightly so, where the entire city is on the path in becoming the next Big Dubai. Half-assed doer, Bill de Blasio will become a one trick pony, and many people are happy to see him come down as a one term mayor since Dinkins, including his beloved NAMs.
For proles voting for Trump, especially those in NYC, this would be a self inflicted wound. Trump would love to turn their towns into luxurious playpens.
JS
April 6, 2016 at 12:08 AM
this is unfair to TX. Cruz is a perfectly fine senator to have, as far as it goes, in turn it’s natural for humans to identify with their home-town boy. Texas still gave Trump a good number of delegates. The true Armpit of America is the white upper midwest: MN, WI,IA. Worst states.
Justin
April 6, 2016 at 10:16 AM
I never said the Texan wetland was bad. It’s humid, sweaty, and proles who’ve been priced out in the Northeast, might view Teddy as a salvation in his hometown. It’s a working class dreamland, given the abundance of blue collar jobs available.
JS
April 6, 2016 at 11:41 AM
Three takeaways:
1) Kasich lost 1/3 to 1/2 of his voters to Cruz. This shows that even people who prefer Kasich are starting to see this as a two man race. That puts Cruz in play everywhere
2) Wisconsin is completely wrong for Cruz, blue collar, rust belt, the last open primary, not many evangelicals so getting close to 50 is huge.
3) Trump made some loony loserish statement claiming “Lyin’ Ted” is a Trojan horse for the establishment and blah, blah, blah. Vintage Trump but so much for becoming presidential.
4) Cruz clobbered Trump amoung “want to halt Muslim immigration”. This shows that people aren’t buying Trump’s BS even when they AGREE with what he’s saying.
mvetsel
April 6, 2016 at 12:14 AM
Basically the polls are usually accurate for Trump, but underestimate Cruz because 100% of undecided’s break towards him. Trump will occasionally over-perform by a few points in states he is already very strong in, but that’s it.
I knew the race wasn’t as close as the polls showed for that very reason.
Trump will dominate the northeast to lock in a decisive majority of the delegates. Cruz probably wins a close one in CA. Trump comes in ~200 dels short, gets robbed on the second ballot and riots break out. Trump spends the entire Presidential campaign urging his supporters to not vote, or even vote Democrat, to destroy the GOP. Cruz reacts by tripling down on his own anti immigrant schtick to try to win over Trump’s supporters. It fails and combined with Cruz’s odious personality, Cruz goes on to get absolutely walloped in the general worse than McCain did in 2008, causing mass down ballot carnage. Media goes overboard celebrating the death of white America causing a bit of a backlash.
Hillary has a brief honeymoon before a new recession mixed with her incompetence and her own toxic personality drives her approval to under 40% in her first year. The republicans have another wave election in 2020, bigger than 2010 and 2014. Possibly the GOPe and Trump publicly make nice for the midterms in the interest of taking back the House.
What happens after all of that? Even Otis knows not.
Otis the Sweaty
April 6, 2016 at 1:05 AM
Interesting scenario, except by then all of the illegals already here will be amnestied and on their way to citizenship, and as Hillary made clear in the Univision debate, anyone who is here, gets to stay. So all the illegals who come in during her term will also get to stay. In other words, the GOP has probably missed it’s last chance.
Mike Street Station
April 6, 2016 at 3:32 PM
According to the CNN exit polls, only 6 percent of Wisconsin Republican primary voters considered immigration the most important issue.
http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/wi/Rep
That probably explains a lot.
SQ
April 6, 2016 at 1:07 AM
This has been common in most states. For most voters, immigration is simply not the front-of-mind issue people like Lion assume it should be.
Henry
April 6, 2016 at 3:36 PM
He’s under 50℅ at least.
IHTG
April 6, 2016 at 4:27 AM
I think Trump’s bad performance in the upper Midwest is a big problem for his general election chances.
The GOP road to victory is to take some of WI, MI, IA, OH, PA, FL off the Obama map. Florida loves Trump, but otherwise, it seems like he is unusually weak in most of the important swing states. And I don’t buy that he is going to win NY in the general.
If you think Trump has a good shot in the general, do you think the upper midwest comes around? Or do you think he redraws the map in other ways?
zorro
April 6, 2016 at 8:32 AM
The standard theory of why Trump wins is that everyone who voted for Romney also votes for Trump (minus a tiny number of business elites who will jump ship to Hillary), plus Trump brings in large numbers of blue-collar whites who previously stayed home or voted Democratic (Reagan Democrats) and they bring Trump wins in states like Pennsylvania.
Of course, I assumed that the GOPe would eventually work on Trump’s behalf once he became the the likely winner. By trying to sabotage him so late into the primary season, they are probably making it impossible for any Republican to win.
Lion of the Blogosphere
April 6, 2016 at 8:39 AM
It’s not the GOPe. It’s the TruCons and Stupid Chrisitans.
Ercuck Erickson, RedState, Glenn Beck, Mark Levin, Ben Shapiro, Steve King and many others like them are not the GOPe.
The GOPe is only worth 20% of the vote. The Stupid Christians and TruCons combined, however, are worth 35%. That gives #NeverTrump a block of 55%.
TruCons are the enemy. Not the GOPe, not liberals and not even immigrants. The TruCons must be destroyed.
Otis the Sweaty
April 6, 2016 at 9:17 AM
The fundamental flaw in this theory is that Trump is clearly destroying the “everyone who voted for Romney” coalition. He’s repelling far more than just “a tiny number of business elites,” he’s alienating women, Mormons, the small number of minorities who vote GOP, and a diverse array of conservatives.
The strategy of winning over blue collar white men was fine, but you can’t win anything with them alone.
Pumpkinseed
April 6, 2016 at 9:47 AM
It’s also worth noting that there was a brief period in this primary campaign in which the GOP-E seemed to be warming to Trump, largely because they hated Cruz and Rubio seemed to be self-destructing. You noted it yourself, Lion. But Trump did not take advantage of this opening. He has continually refused opportunities to make himself more presidential, trustworthy, and informed. It shows that he fundamentally does not, in fact, know how to make deals or persuade people.
Pumpkinseed
April 6, 2016 at 9:50 AM
Or that Trump is simply unable to stop being his reality-TV persona.
Lion of the Blogosphere
April 6, 2016 at 11:20 AM
Or that the GOPe were not in fact warming to him.
Glengarry
April 6, 2016 at 11:59 AM
“It’s also worth noting that there was a brief period in this primary campaign in which the GOP-E seemed to be warming to Trump, largely because they hated Cruz”
Did this really happen, or is it a myth?
IHTG
April 6, 2016 at 3:27 PM
The GOP road to victory is to take some of WI, MI, IA, OH, PA, FL off the Obama map. Florida loves Trump, but otherwise, it seems like he is unusually weak in most of the important swing states.
Your analysis falls short because it fails to distinguish between Rust Belt states – Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan – and Scandinavian Midwestern states like Wisconsin and Minnesota.
Trump’s message of fair trade and immigration restriction is very attractive in the Rust Belt where the voters dislike trade and the proles are arguably more racist than the Deep South. Unfortunately the Scandinavian states find Trump’s brashness and vulgarity ‘unpresidential’ because they’ve imported the progressivism of their ancestral nations.
But Pittsburgh, Columbus, and the Detroit suburbs are an entirely different breeds of cat. They are all prime Trump country come the general.
Now if we could only dispense with the Republican primary…
The Undiscovered Jew
April 6, 2016 at 6:48 PM
Yeah, you’re right, this map (e.g.) works:
http://www.270towin.com/maps/5pVJL
(Trump takes OH, PA, and FL, and holds NC.)
zorro
April 7, 2016 at 8:00 AM
Trump will also win NH’s 4 electoral votes, and even Maine will be in play.
Lion of the Blogosphere
April 7, 2016 at 8:09 AM
…
I hate seeing Trump lose like like this because of the effect it has on Trump’s momentum.
Of course, since Cruz cannot win, every vote for Cruz is a vote for a contested convention and
for the execrable traitorous Republican leadership.
The Conservative Treehouse has an interesting post election analysis and also an excellent map of which counties went for Trump vs Cruz. It shows Trump winning in all of rural Wisconsin:
“Remember, this is an insurgency. You must modify your mindset to think like and insurgent.
Insurgencies have nothing to lose. If insurgents are not victorious the system, which controls the dynamic, wins. However, if insurgents do nothing, the same system, which controls the dynamic, also wins.
Do nothing and you lose. Go to the mattresses and you might win. The choice is yours.
This is Saint Crispins day.
The insurgency, led by Donald Trump, is an existential threat to the professional political class and every entity who lives in/around the professional political class. The entire political industry is threatened by the insurgency. The entire political industry is threatened by Donald Trump.”
Wisconsin Post Election Night Debrief…
http://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/04/06/wisconsin-post-election-night-debrief/#more-114733
…
Nedd Ludd
April 6, 2016 at 9:53 AM
Interesting map . WI is the polar opposite of states like Missouri where Trump won the big cities and Cruz won the rural areas. The Upper Midwest and Lower Midwest are very different from each other.
Jay Fink
April 6, 2016 at 1:34 PM
Trump was polling 50% of independents prior to WI (and they could vote in either primary). Also, Republican turnout beat Democrat turnout because of Trump’s command of the independents.
So, trump could win WI, if the Republicand didn’t knife him in the back.
But they did.
Lion, did you see the story on Drudge about Singer’s big group of monied donors is pressing the GOP to adopt gay mairrage in their platform plank? Should Trump go this route, telling voters, you vote for Cruz’s delegates, you get surrender on gay mairrage? Or is that too much off brand social issues and he should concentrate on his strengths?
Rotten
April 6, 2016 at 10:33 AM
Trump is smart to stay out of that issue. He needs to talk jobs, immigration, he’s not controlled by super-rich donors, and he will protect the U.S. with stable responsible leadership (not a trigger-happy warmonger).
Lion of the Blogosphere
April 6, 2016 at 11:21 AM
What kind of jobs would Trump discuss, especially those pertaining to the working/middle class? Much of it has left the country and our wealthy corporatists do not want to pay anyone a living wage, except their management and upper ranks.
The country is set to burst like a pressure cooker, if welfare subsidy isn’t in place for the White demographic, who need a basic income.
JS
April 6, 2016 at 11:36 AM
True.
He should focus on the Big Three –
1 – Immigration/invasion.
2 – Bad trade deals, corporate/donor/walls street scams.
3 – Bad foreign policy, war, invasion/intervention, NATO rip offs, muslims overwhelming old dying Europe.
Rifleman
April 6, 2016 at 12:19 PM
[…] the Blogosphere gave us the most succinct one: There just aren’t enough blacks in Wisconsin, he said. The theory is, where you have a lot of blacks, whites go tribal. Here I get to quote one of my […]
Demography Is Electoral Destiny—And Midwestern Niceness Is A Problem | VDARE - premier news outlet for patriotic immigration reform
April 10, 2016 at 10:16 PM