Trump will lose
I have been predicting a Trump loss for a year, but it looks even bleaker for Trump than a year ago.
To summarize:
1. Trump supporters are disproportionately old. People who voted for Trump in 2016 have died off since then (my prole uncle unfortunately among that number). Millennials who came of voting age since 2016 are anti-Trump by a wide margin.
2. More non-white immigrant citizens since 2016, they will disproportionately vote for Biden.
3. Can you I imagine anyone who voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 voting for Trump in 2020? I can’t. OK, so there are a small number who probably will do that, but the number of 2016 Trump voters who will not vote for Trump again is a lot larger. It doesn’t matter that the vast majority of people who voted for Trump in 2016 will vote for him again; if 6% jump to Biden, Trump loses.
4. Trump’s big selling point a year ago was that the economy was doing great. The economy is now the worst economy since the Great Depression. Sure, it’s not Trump’s fault that there’s a pandemic, but it is most certainly Trump’s fault that the United States response to the pandemic has been the worst of any developed country. But regardless of fault, history has shown that the current president benefits from a good economy and gets voted out of office because of a bad economy, regardless of fault.
5. Trump’s horrible handling of the pandemic means that his own words will be used against him in highly effective negative campaign ads. We haven’t seen these ads yet, but they are coming very soon.
6. You would have thought that BLM riots would be a big opportunity for Trump to regain popularity as a voice of common sense and law and order and exposing Democrats for being crazily to the left of mainstream America, but Trump managed to blow that opportunity.
Lion of the Blogosphere 
Dunno … Biden is an extraordinarily poor candidate, what with his increasingly obvious dementia.
Peter
ironrailsironweights
July 2, 2020 at 11:38 AM
Democrats think that Trump’s dementia is obvious.
I personally prefer Biden’s sleepy dementia to Trump’s megalomaniac dementia. Biden will let his people run things without saying that the virus is a hoax.
Lion of the Blogosphere
July 2, 2020 at 11:47 AM
Biden has dementia. Trump is just a garden variety dummy and blowhard who refuses to learn the issues. Three years in and he still has no idea how government works. Thomas and Alito wouldn’t be hinting about retirement if they liked Trump’s chances.
Brendan
July 2, 2020 at 1:09 PM
“Biden will let his people run things ”
How do we know that? Dementia patients change over time. Sometimes they become aggressive. Biden will have nuclear launch codes. It is a disgrace that the Democrats are letting a man who is clearly suffering from dementia run for president. A lot of people are angry about it because it is disrespectful to Biden to put him in this position and display his illness in such a public way.
And who are “his people”? AOC? No one really knows. Fortunately AOC is too young to be picked as his running mate. Some people worry he will pick Clinton.
Rosenmop
July 2, 2020 at 1:26 PM
Biden will be a ceremonial head of state in much the same way the president of the USSR was a figurehead. The VP or Biden’s chief of staff will play a role similar to that of general secretary of the communist party, i.e. head of the Politburo.
Sgt. Joe Friday
July 2, 2020 at 1:31 PM
“Thomas and Alito wouldn’t be hinting about retirement if they liked Trump’s chances.”
They should have retired last year. I doubt Trump is going to get the chance to push through another, let alone two, SC nominations before election.
Mike Street Station
July 3, 2020 at 7:45 AM
If mental health is important to voters, why would those voters support the narcissistic sociopath instead of the nice guy with mild symptoms of dementia.
Why would anyone who cares about people making gaffes vote for Trump over Biden since Turmp makes as many gaffes as Biden but Trump always refuses to admit he made a mistake. See the story where Trump got confused between napalm and agent orange.
https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2018/08/trump-apocalypse-now-veterans-meeting
superdestroyer
July 2, 2020 at 2:47 PM
Seems likely both of them have dementia. This is painfully clear to us over in Europe. Compare Trump now to how he spoke 15 years ago. This is a man in serious decline.
Also Biden‘s dementia might be a selling point. A lot of Americans just want a President who will shut up and leave us alone. Both Obama and Trump spent their times in office in permanent campaign mode. Biden presumably will be content with one term.
Peter Akuleyev
July 2, 2020 at 3:25 PM
I hope he wins to complete the conservative takeover of the judiciary, but the handling of Covid and BLM has been incompetent. I think his best hope is BLM having tarnished itself enough by November to become a negative and Biden making some gaffes.
I agree it looks like Biden will win though.
Alex
July 2, 2020 at 11:56 AM
Lion. You are overinvested in Trump. Economy will be fine so will stock market. Meanwhile AMZN, TSLA, NFLX all hitting all time highs in last 3 days.
2020 is the first time in last 4 election when I feel ok with either candidate winning. If Biden wins, great and if not it’s ok too. Best thing to happen to USA in 2020 was Bernie’s defeat. Bernie would have been much more horrible than Trump reelection.
You are bailing out on Trump at first sign of trouble. What kind of supporter are you? I am just the opposite. I used to hate him but now feels like he has delivered a LOT for previous anti-Trump people. I honestly would not be upset if he wins this time (compared to 2016).
mpt
July 2, 2020 at 12:09 PM
The exponentially increasing speed with which the American system seems to be declining is really quite shocking to behold. I am quite sure there is no political solution to the intractable problems we have in this country now. The collapse of the Anglosphere in the 21st century is the central event of our lifetimes.
Two in the Bush
July 3, 2020 at 8:34 PM
Biden’s election would be a disaster for this country. Israel wouldn’t fare well, either.
Steve
July 2, 2020 at 12:28 PM
Overreach by the Democrats might help revive the Republican Party. A second Trump Administration would probably the Republican Party enough that it would never recover. By 2024 the Dems would have 60+ seats in the Senate and the only Republicans in the House would be the R+20 district that elect idiots like Devin Nunes or Matt Gaetz.
superdestroyer
July 2, 2020 at 2:56 PM
What a weird comment. How about Botswana, or Kiribati?
S.J., Esquire
July 4, 2020 at 8:23 AM
With all his faults, Trump is the best that this poor country has to offer. None is my circle have abandoned him. He may yet win.
Yakov
July 2, 2020 at 12:37 PM
Trump might win if he proposed to his fellow proles that more money will be going into their pockets and it becomes a reality, an amount far greater than what the Demonbrats are proposing
Ok, what, who's this again?
July 2, 2020 at 12:40 PM
If you believe this, you should begin talking about the Senate. That’s the last line of defense.
IHTG
July 2, 2020 at 12:46 PM
What are the chances that the GOP would put up any meaningful opposition if VP Stacey Abrams is the one actually running the country? Just about zero I’d say.
Sgt. Joe Friday
July 2, 2020 at 1:34 PM
The Senate has been controlled by the Left for decades, and is happily pushing their agenda while conning dupes.
The last line of defense is armed men.
Panther of the Blogocube
July 3, 2020 at 2:45 PM
Another solid jobs report is good news for Don. Now he has to hope that states don’t close down again.
Brendan
July 2, 2020 at 1:53 PM
“You would have thought that BLM riots would be a big opportunity for Trump to regain popularity as a voice of common sense and law and order and exposing Democrats for being crazily to the left of mainstream America, but Trump managed to blow that opportunity.”
————————————————————
Yes , Trump has blown the opportunity in many ways. But the Democrats have displayed appalling behaviour in the last month by letting the craziest among them run completely wild. Indeed many elected Democrats have actually condoned much illegal, dangerous and outrageous behaviour. For example the mayor of Seattle in allowing CHAZ/CHOP to happen, resulting in the shooting deaths of several young black men.
Trump may not be on the ball, but Hannity and Tucker Carlson are. And you can feel a sea change happening. People may vote for Trump in spite of his stupid behaviour.
Then there is this: https://twitter.com/Julio_Rosas11/status/1278150610567782410?s=20
And Trump has come out in support of masks! https://youtu.be/hdgkdLSwh88
(OK, this is also where he says that someday the virus might someday disappear. But maybe this isn’t as crazy as it sounds. The 1918 virus disappeared after a few years. )
Rosenmop
July 2, 2020 at 2:00 PM
It makes no difference if Trump wins or not. All is lost. The left has captured all of this country’s institutions. Many conservatives are criticizing Trump for not sending in the military to stop the riots. What they do not understand is that he wants to but cannot. He is hemmed in by the deep state. Numerous members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff would disobey his orders if given. Trump did not have the time to reshape the officer corps of the Obama era, which is packed to the gills with communist sympathizers. It is clear at this point that a majority of D.C. elites are routing for the destruction of the historic nation, its culture and its future. Democrats are not criticizing this Marxist revolution because they are supporting it as is the media and corporate America. It is actually better for the American right if Trump loses the election. It will remove all illusions that conservatives have any institutional power left in the United States (they don’t) or that the GOP is a viable alternative (it isn’t). A Trump defeat will either force the creation of an unapologetically nationalist pro-white political party or America will balkanize within the next decade.. My humble opinion is that the latter is inevitable.
B.T.D.T.
July 2, 2020 at 2:16 PM
The great thing about the current state of Meriprolestan/Murkaprolestan (perhaps this what the country has become, a nation balkanized by proles on one side, and NAMs with their prolish multicult sympathizers on the other side), is the stimulus checks and the spectacular UI amount of $600/per week for those who are unemployed. It is set to run out soon, but I expect our politicos will renew it in the coming weeks, either with the same amount or less.
Ok, what, who's this again?
July 4, 2020 at 11:01 AM
I have to concur, Trump is as finished as I’ve ever seen a Presidential candidate appear at this stage of the game. And in fact, his polling is the worst an incumbent has ever had since modern polling began in the 50s. If the election were held today, his popular vote performance would be the worst by an incumbent since Hoover in ’32 (ignoring the effects of third-party challengers). Yeah, he might beat the polls by 3 points again, but not by 10-15 points.
I think the same might be said about his EC performance. Best-case, his performance would be similar to H.W. Bush in ’92, losing AZ, FL, VA, and NC, but winning OH, MO, and IA. Worst-case, the man could lose TX.
Anecdotally, there’s no good news. My Trump-voting father is dead. My wife’s parents, thoroughly conservative evangelicals in a swing state, voted for Trump before. They’re disgusted now, probably going to go write-in or third party. Trump looks finished, he feels finished.
It doesn’t matter that Biden is senile. Biden could be a mannequin. In fact, maybe his polling would improve if he were. No one is voting for Biden, they’re voting against Trump.
Trump really should step aside now. The most important thing is holding onto the Senate. If Republicans lose it, Dems go amnesty, and the jig is up. TX, FL, and GA are lost, we’ll be a one-party state for at least a generation. Let Pence or someone lose respectably and maybe help hold onto the Senate.
Wency
July 2, 2020 at 2:17 PM
Right now the economy is bad, but it would be far worse if not for the $600 extra unemployment benefits on top of state unemployment. Those extra unemployment benefits expire at the end of this month. If something is not done, the economic downturn will get far worse starting in August. Democrats in the house have already passed an extension of the extra unemployment in the House, but Senate has refused to take it up so far. I expect as the virus cases spread across the south and west, forcing more shut downs, Trump will wake up and realize we have to do something to keep the economy a float until November. When Trump tells Republicans in the Senate, some compromise will be worked out.
The fundamental question is not how fast to reopen the economy. It was the virus that forced us to shut down. To reopen we must control the virus. Right now we are not trying very hard. Trump is still engaging in magical thinking that the virus will just disappear.
I’m very worried about what Trump is going to do in the next few months. Trump really wanted to start holding rallies again because he loves to speak in front of those screaming crowds and he is convinced that is why he won in 2016. Trump thinks the virus is a conspiracy to prevent him from holding rallies so he will lose in 2020. Fox News can spin up some crazy conspiracy bulls..t to prevent Trump’s strongest supporters from noticing that much of what Trump says is from an alternative fantasy universe and that he has completely lost touch with reality, but those who exist outside the Fox News bubble are increasing realizing Trump is just a delusional old man.
MikeCA
July 2, 2020 at 2:54 PM
Simply ask a Trump supporter:
Is America greater today than what it was four years ago?
njguy73
July 2, 2020 at 3:48 PM
just curious, what do you think a good response to the BLM riots would have been?
Logik
July 2, 2020 at 4:34 PM
I predict biden will drop in polls when he announces some lame female VP pick.
It is bizarre they nominated someone obviously senile. So many better options.
toomanymice
July 2, 2020 at 5:03 PM
Trump will probably lose for most of the reasons you state. But this:
“ the United States response to the pandemic has been the worst of any developed country”
is just ludicrous nonsense. The US simply has the most hostile media towards its own government.
Peterike
July 2, 2020 at 5:31 PM
No one supported Trump more than me. I couldn’t care less what the media or anyone else thinks about Trump. I supported him through the entire Russia collusion nonsense. I even supported him through the Ukraine impeachment stuff even though I thought there might be a little bit to that. I figured if Obama and Biden could get by with it then why shouldn’t Trump?
I still believe that the media is out to smear him no matter what. And I still believe that the media and dems are using BLM as a campaign tactic. I also think governors bear the brunt of the responsibility for the pitiful wuflu response. But that doesn’t mean Trump has done a good job on his end.
He’s completely isolated with almost every person who’s ever worked for him coming after him with their long knives out. Former cabinet and staff. All the generals. Everybody. If your own people don’t even like you then you’re toast. Moreover, Bolton has convinced me that Trump is even hurting our national security interests. He’s so bad that he’s actually doing damage to our country abroad as well as discrediting the domestic policies that I support. It’s having real world consequences.
I think it would be best for him to step aside and let someone else run. In fact, I think he should take a leave of absence and let Pence finish his term. Otherwise, it’s going to be a complete wipe-out. Now, simpletons don’t realize this but there’s more to it than just losing the senate majority. It also matters how many seats you lose. If the Dems only pick up a slight majority then what they can do is limited. But if they pick up a commanding majority then they can do a lot more. I think they’re already going to take all three branches. At this point, I just want to stanch the blood loss. To do that, Trump needs to do the right thing. He’s become a millstone around our necks.
destructure
July 2, 2020 at 5:47 PM
O/t – What with this proles have a crappy life in relation to college and a lack thereof based on a happiness study?
Studies have shown that people with advanced degrees are happier. It’s bollocks.
Should MBAs be as happy as PhDs in English Literature or vice versa?
In fact, American life/consumerist culture ostracizes intellectualism and puts its to shame, because learning for its own sake is not where the money is. Besides Montréal and parts of Québec, the rest of North America seems rather bland and boring as in Anglo Canada and utterly grotesque and childlike in Meriprolestan/Murkaprolestan.
Ok, what, who's this again?
July 2, 2020 at 8:51 PM
Steve Sailer Retweeted:
MEH 0910
July 2, 2020 at 11:19 PM
Trump’s first instinct was right about the pandemic.It’s just an overhyped flu and he would have been better off sticking to his guns and fighting against the lockdowns more.
Our leftist government had basically the same response as Trump (first “it’s just a flu”, then panicked response to the public panic and lockdowns, then quickly backing off and reopening) but they get praised and Trump gets condemned. It’s all propaganda BS. It doesn’t matter what Trump does, the media will call it bad anyway.
Jaakko Raipala
July 3, 2020 at 3:18 AM
I’m just hoping Republicans keep the Senate to stop a lot of stupid stuff. I think if the Dems win with a 51 or 52 seat Senate, we’ll see stuff like this:
Massive bailouts to states. Trillions. Erase their pension crap, everything. Big giveaway to IL, CT, NY, etc.
DC Statehood. Yeah, it’ll be a mess because of the Constitution’s federal district thing, but the Dems will push it through. PR statehood will be talked about in blogs, but there’s no realistic chance of that because of their tax status.
Expansion of judiciary: Make SupCt to 12 and add seats to lower courts to pack them.
Some sort of fair housing law that makes it difficult to stop multifamily housing in suburbs via zoning. The wealthiest suburbs will skirt this by just not having any real space to build (and the towns may actively buy up any unused parcels for “open space” or parks). However, more professionals may literally head for the hills since they can now mostly work remotely. Real estate prices for areas without good cellphone and internet connectivity won’t go up as much as those places that do.
More regional school district funding — this would be done more at the local level than at the federal level.
Increasing corporate tax rates, elimination of FICA limit and raising capital gains taxes.
A government more aligned with big tech to have a surveillance state. This will be more subtle, but it’s going to happen. Did you see the Comms chief at Boeing got dumped today because of an article he wrote in 1987 saying that women shouldn’t serve in combat?
Some stupid police reform bill that will drive up crime.
Some stupid climate laws that will make cars and gas more expensive.
Biden will, to placate the left, put some loony people into his cabinet / staff, and they’ll more or less run the show.
I just hope Republicans can keep a Senate majority. That takes a lot of the above off the table.
GMR
July 3, 2020 at 10:06 AM
This scientist says Trump has an even better chance than in 2016.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/07/man-correctly-predicted-president-trumps-2016-win-predicts-president-trump-91-chance-reelected-2020/
Robert the Libertarian
July 4, 2020 at 8:41 AM
Trump may very well lose….but contrary to your bullshit, this country won’t be any better for it. Then again, being the leftist bolshevik, rootless cosmopolitan that you are, I’m sure you can’t wait to see your preferred candidate, demented Joe Biden impose draconian gun control measures and open borders.
Prole in Idaho
July 4, 2020 at 1:31 PM
Haha… yeah, at this point Lion’s basically a liberal who considers himself a “conservative” because he believes in HBD.
Hermes
July 6, 2020 at 8:01 PM
“Rootless cosmopolitan” is as an antisemitic term that can be traced back to Soviet Russia under Josef Stalin.
Jay Fink
July 7, 2020 at 2:00 AM
Dont agree that he has mishandled the virus or the virus economy. But they can certainly spin it that way, and they have all the media power to do so.
There are some x factors in Trump’s favor:
1) The media created the image in 2016 that Trump was a hot head who would get us in a world war. That hasnt happened.
2) People dont like riots and chaos. Security is very high in our hierarchy of needs. Trump is obviously the law and order candidate.
stuartsullivaniii
July 4, 2020 at 4:13 PM
By doing nothing about the riots except hiding in his basement and tweeting furiously, Trump has forfeited any claim to being the “law and order candidate.”
I mean, what’s the pitch here? Vote for Trump, so he can…continue to do nothing about the riots?
Pete
July 5, 2020 at 4:58 PM
“but Trump managed to blow that opportunity.”
Supposedly, he believes being soft on blacks will give de wammins warm and fuzzies which is the entire purpose of elections these days. Our entire society has been Oprahized.
Curle
July 5, 2020 at 3:14 AM
Trump lost the November 2020 election on October 3, 1965, the day the Hart-Celler act was passed. It was only a matter of time that the demographics of this country tilted permanently against the white party. That day has arrived. There will never be another Republican President, and soon Congress will be out of the reach of the white party. Nothing Trump did in his Presidency could have forestalled this eventuality. The true future of America is here, right now.
Daniel H
July 5, 2020 at 5:23 PM
The economy is in bad shape because of the neurotic headcases who demanded an irrational lockdown. Has anyone noticed that deaths continue to dwindle, even as they are still probably overstated?
So you guys played a role in destroying the economy.
Jackson
July 6, 2020 at 3:15 PM
MEH 0910
July 7, 2020 at 2:56 AM