Lion of the Blogosphere

On Vacation

with 3 comments

The blog is on vacation until August 1.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

July 25, 2014 at 9:01 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

Maslow and self-actualization

with 83 comments

Given that this came up again in the comments, please re-read my previous post about self-actualization.

And remember, in that post I am merely explaining what the elites believe, and not saying whether or not I agree with them.

* * *

Does Mike “The Situation” Sorrentino achieve self-actualization by building up his muscles and having sex with many prole women? And if the answer to that question is yes, then do the elites see it that way, or do they think that he is wasting his life away because he didn’t go to college and doesn’t have a respectable white-collar career?

* * *

Also, when David Brooks wrote:

Thanks to the labor of low-skill immigrants, the cost of food, homes and child care comes down, living standards rise and more women can afford to work outside the home.

I think that’s one of the most beautiful things he ever wrote because he wrote it completely unironically. He has so completely internalized the idea that the goal of life is self-actualization through career that he doesn’t even see the irony of assuming that when the cost of food and homes come down and living standards rise, that means women become more likely to “work outside the home” instead of less likely.

(And I might also point the dubiousness of his assertion that more immigration causes less expensive homes. The opposite seems to have happened. And if you add the two assumptions together, you get the weirdest ever argument in favor of immigration. “I support more immigration because it causes the price of homes to go down, and lower housing prices means that women can afford to go to work.”)

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

July 23, 2014 at 10:38 am

Posted in Bobos

Brooklyn Bridge update

with 16 comments

Reported today:

Video footage of the security breach shows the unidentified people walking on the bridge’s footpath at about 3:10 a.m., and 20 minutes later the light on the bridge’s Brooklyn tower flickers and goes dark, Miller said. The same thing happens about 12 minutes later on the Manhattan tower, he said.

Locked gates midway up the main cables leading to the tops of the towers didn’t appear to have been tampered with, suggesting the climbers scaled them to reach the top, Miller said.

So now we know that multiple people pulled this prank.

What crimes were actually committed? Since they had to scale a locked gate, I guess that’s trespass (a class B misdemeanor in NY State). And they stole the flags. Although if they merely believed they were borrowing the flags with no intent to keep them, then it’s technically not theft. And if they didn’t damage any property, then it’s not vandalism (called criminal mischief in the NY penal code).

My legal advice to the pranksters is to immediately return the stolen flags to the City (anonymously, of course) to demonstrate that there was no intent to keep the flags. And also to demonstrate that the flags were not damaged. That way, they only crime they committed was the trespass misdemeanor.

I suppose that a huge amount of police resources are going to be wasted on tracking down the perpetrators of a very minor crime.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

July 23, 2014 at 7:21 am

Posted in Crime

White flags on the Brooklyn Bridge

with 18 comments

Big police investigation to figure out who allegedly replaced the flags on the Brooklyn Bridge with faded flags.

Police removed the white flags just before noon from poles on the stone supports that hold cables above the bridge. One of the flags, viewed via video, appeared to have faint traces of stars and stripes on it.

Hey, here’s an idea. No one switched the flags. The last time DOT workers replaced the flags, they replaced them with crappy made-in-China flags made with fugitive dyes that faded in the sunlight.

* * *

Alternatively, it could have been a false flag operation.

* * *

OK, so the problem with my fugitive dye theory is that I searched through Instagram for pictures of the Brooklyln Bridge taken yesterday, and all show the flags looking normal. The dye wouldn’t have faded in the middle of the night.

I think this has to have been an inside job, done by a person who had previous experience legitimately replacing the flags as a City DOT employee. The employee took two of the old flags home with him instead of throwing them in the garbage, and then he bleached them. Bleaching an old flag would be easier and less expensive than buying a new white flag. (Where would one even buy such a thing? It would have to be a special order.) And of course this City DOT employee would know exactly how to climb to the top of the bridge undetected and replace the flags.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

July 22, 2014 at 4:31 pm

Posted in Crime

Greg Mankiw and inherited wealth

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Greg Mankiw, who is a libertarian-economist type, wrote a New York Times column about inherited wealth last month.

He starts out by calling it “intergenerational altruism.” Because everyone knows that altruism is good, this artful use of language is designed to make people have good feelings about bequests of wealth. But this could also be explained in terms of evolutionary biology. People have a natural biological urge to ensure that their children are successful, because in the past this has led to having more great-grandchildren which is for the most part the ultimate goal of all animals.

The desire to bequest money to one’s children could just easily be described in terms of greed, as in greed to have a sort of immortality through one’s children and perpetual fame for having fathered a great dynasty.

The bottom line here is that rich people are not saints because they leave money to their children, they are just doing what is normal behavior for rich people. And remember that the behavior of rich people is intended to benefit themselves and not society at large.

Mankiw then spends a large part of the column writing about regression towards the mean. This is yet another emotional argument instead of a utilitarian one. This is supposed to make us feel bad for rich children that they will probably not be as successful as their parents, thus we should not begrudge them their inheritance which they presumably need in order to alleviate the low self-esteem they have from living in the footsteps of their more successful parents. Boo hoo, poor rich children.

Then finally we get to an actual economic argument rather than an emotional one. We need to allow rich children to keep their inheritance so that they will invest it in ways that increase productivity and therefore make everyone richer!

For starters, this in contradiction to the regression-towards-them mean argument he made previously. Which is it? Are children of the rich unsuccessful losers who will just spend the money on big parties thrown at their big mansions, or are they hyper-smart investors who will direct their inheritance towards the investments that will produce the optimal return, thus becoming even richer by doing so and not regressing towards the mean as Mankiw earlier said they would?

If people need to be rich in order for the economy to have an adequate level of investment (which is a rather dubious assumption because the whole point of things like corporations and investment funds is that many people of average wealth can group their money together to invest in big projects), then it would surely make more sense to take away the money from the stupid rich children via a high inheritance tax and then transfer it to smart poor people, perhaps those who score the highest on the GMAT, who would then use the money a lot more intelligently to grow the economy.

I should point out that with the last argument, Mankiw is merely using one of the standard libertarian arguments for low taxes on passive income, which is that a small number of people need to be able to become rich and stay rich in order for investment to take place, and as I pointed out above, it’s a dubious assumption.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

July 22, 2014 at 9:51 am

Rock star scientist acted like a rock star?

with 34 comments

Steve Sailer has a post about Richard Feynman’s womanizing behavior.

Why are people so outraged by Feynman’s behavior when much more egregious womanizing by rock stars, actors and professional athletes is glossed over? For example, Wilt Chamberlain claimed to have had sex with 20,000 women. Why isn’t there more anger over that? Jack Nicholson hasn’t been banned from Hollywood despite allegedly having had sex with 2,000 women (but only one-tenth of Wilt Chamberlain’s alleged accomplishment).

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

July 21, 2014 at 1:17 pm

Posted in Males and Females

Can one make profit by predicting gentrification?

with 36 comments

Steve Sailer writes:

This seems like a business — using data to predict gentrification — that has been underinvested in. My wife and I went with a Graham-Buffett “Value Investing” approach to forecasting gentrification in Chicago in 1988, buying a well-made 1923 condo near the beaches, on the grounds that the main very long run feature distinguishing one neighborhood from another in Chicago is proximity to Lake Michigan (and all the amenities that come with it).

But, that wasn’t a fashionable view in Chicago up through 1997, so if we had wanted to sell during our first eight years, we would have barely gotten what we paid for the place. The people who did better in 1988-1997 were the Momentum Investors, the proto-hipsters who flocked together to the the dumpy inland neighborhood of Bucktown (Liz Phair’s “Guyville”). Because my wife and I are pretty contrarian by personality, we missed out on that. As Keynes remarked, markets can sometimes stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

But then our neighborhood suddenly became fashionable in 1998 (hey, it’s the lakefront ), just like back in 1988 we had assumed it eventually would, and we wound up doing fine.

Anyway, it seems like some sabermetrician-types should stop playing around with baseball statistics and start churning massive amounts of data to figure out underlying patterns, if any, in gentrification.

While this theoretically sounds like a profitable use of HBD knowledge, I am pessimistic about this. For starters, the real estate market is a lot more “efficient” than people realize. As you should know, “efficient” is a term of art in finance and economics that refers to the fact that free markets already take into account all publicly known information in order to arrive at the market price for investments. Because all of the data that you have access to is also accessible to everyone else. Although you may think you have some special cynical or HBD-related insight, I suspect that experienced real estate investors and developers are already secret believers in HBD, or at least they know enough to know what kind of people moving into a neighborhood cause prices to go up, and what kind of people cause prices to go down.

Even if you predict that Bedford-Stuyvesant is a future up-and-coming neighborhood, do you really want to be robbed and beat up by the local residents (as happened to these hipsters) while waiting for the neighborhood to improve?

The way to actually make money in real estate in a heavily regulated environment like New York City is to have inside knowledge about the real-state approval and development process which only comes from experience working in the industry.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

July 21, 2014 at 12:04 pm

Posted in Investments


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